Thread: swa/b6
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Old 04-25-2012, 12:05 PM
  #2  
gloopy
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Joined APC: Jul 2010
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A 60/30/10 for AA-US/SW/DL makes a LOT of sense.

If it had to be one and only one, my guess would be SW followed by AA and/or US, merger or not.

What JB has can't be replicated any other way than a buyout, merger or fragmentation. SW and AA/US need significantly greater NYC presense and AA in particular needs more JFK, very desperately, to be anywhere close to relevant in the most critical market in the world against DL and UA. For SW the only logistical way to get the big NYC presence they will absolutely have to have is to buy all or large parts of another airline that has some. JB is the only way for all those scenarios to play out. DL would like the terminal and could maybe get away with a little more capacity without being forced to give it all way to someone else but doesn't need to sell its soul for either, especially now with at least a workable (though not optimum) terminal solution and the ability to radically upside capacity within existing slots by upgauging equipment if needed.

I'd say SW is very likely, with AA-US being very interested in making sure SW doesn't get it all and maybe DL interested in a few parts but only if the price was right.
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