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Old 06-12-2012, 06:42 PM
  #8  
squaretail
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Originally Posted by PilotAnalyst View Post
According to my numbers which are closely related to yours (audriesaircraftanalysis comparison), becuase of such a large pool of candidates here in the United States (22,000 Regional Pilots). At the peak years in the decade of the 2020's we will see anywhere from 10-15% draw from the Regionals. Regional FO's during that period can still expect time in the right seat of up to 5 years.
I think you have to factor in that the top third of many regional's lists -- and also anyone else over 50ish may not ever leave that regional, they are just happy where they are. So I would work that number backward to about 15,000 ish-- but that is today, and those hiring projections are drawn out over a period of time sufficient to replenish the pilot numbers (so I am not trying to suggest there will be a shortage).

When you look at the numbers, also account for the fact that not everyone gets hired -- and there are limitations on how fast you can reapply and interview. Given that xyz airline may have a history of hiring as little as 25% of interviewees... and abc airline may hire as much as 50% ... a lot of folks will have the opportunity, just maybe not the success. Given the numbers in the first post, and if you assumed a 1 for 1 replacement in 2013, that would need somewhere in the ballpark of 2 to 4000 interviews, maybe more! While there may be a 10 - 15% draw at peak, it could take as much as interviewing 20 - 25% of the available pool to create that draw.

So regional FO's need not give up hope, there will be opportunity and it may come quicker than 5 years.

Last edited by squaretail; 06-12-2012 at 06:43 PM. Reason: clarification
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