There is certainly some basis for his numbers, but he is only addressing the demand side of the equation. You have to consider the supply side also...the flight colleges and puppy mills will still be doing their best to create five newly minted commercial pilots for every realistic projected job opening in the next thirty years.

Unless the pool of applicants to the puppy mills dries up, there will never be a real pilot shortage.

The ATP requirement is about the only thing which could make a real dent in the entry-level pool, but that is already being watered down by the allowance to substitute ground school for for flight time!