You got to love the irony: they say this is to fix AMR's revenue gap. I'm sure UsAirways is struggling with their large revenue surplus, so this would be a marriage made in heaven.
Bloomberg's also running a related article, about AIDS-infected men in Africa who try to cleanse themselves by having sex with virgins...
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Parker is desperate. He knows if his last chance at a merger gets by him, his company is toast, sooner or later. Especially true, if AA merges with other(s). Therefore, he's got to make his "plan" look like something AA can't do without.
Expect him to move a lot faster as 2012 wears on and his desperation increases, while his inability to complete his plan becomes more obvious. In reality, U needs AA more then AA needs U. That said, it's possible for some type of relationship (including merger), if the AMR clan wants it and they stay in control.
IMO in regards to the claims in his plan, Parker himself is going nowhere.
Who can say? It's all speculation. Parker wants the best for himself, maybe his company and with any hope of armageddon, the best for his employees. I can understand his desire for consolidation...hell, it might even be better for the future...but again, who can say?
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If he is so desperate he certainly isn't showing it. The one thing he will need for any plan to work is a current joint pilot agreement. No creditor/government agency will approve that merger with three separate groups of the same job description in contract negotiations. We will see if anything is announced with the financials announced this week.
Parker is desperate. He knows if his last chance at a merger gets by him, his company is toast, sooner or later. Especially true, if AA merges with other(s). Therefore, he's got to make his "plan" look like something AA can't do without (think of a porno fluffer prepping the actor for the "big shot").
Expect him to stroke a lot faster as 2012 wears on and his desperation increases, while his inability to perform becomes more obvious. In reality, U needs AA more then AA needs U. That said, it's possible for some type of relationship (including merger), if the AMR clan wants it and they stay in control.
IMO in regards to the claims in his plan, Parker himself is shooting blanks.
What do you think they would do with PDT/PSA if an AMR merger happens? Rolled into Eagle or just scrapped all together?
Doesn't U have something like 8 or 9 regionals ?
Just my opinion, but combined with Eagle, that's WAY too many planes and pilots, so I'd expect a lot of trimming and some consolidation. Those carriers with larger RJ's would likely fare better then those with smaller RJ's or older turboprops. Some carriers might not shrink at all, some might shrink substantially and some will disappear.
No one could predict the shakout with any accuracy though, other then streamlining would occur on the feeder level. As usual, there would be the typical dogfights over senioirty and recall rites. It would be quite a mess if you ask me. Most likely, the same thing would occur at the two mainline carriers as well, albeit only involving 2 airlines instead of perhaps 10. 99.999% of AA pilots prefer to make or break without being tethered to U and its pilots mess, that's for sure and hopefully that scenario will never occur.
AA has better scenarios in mind, if you ask me, but may be interested in some parts of U down the road.
If he is so desperate he certainly isn't showing it. The one thing he will need for any plan to work is a current joint pilot agreement. No creditor/government agency will approve that merger with three separate groups of the same job description in contract negotiations. We will see if anything is announced with the financials announced this week.
Personally I am not holding my breath.
AMR has 6 months of exclusivity to keep their entire reorganization effort internal and they can seek extensions of up to 18 months. Horton is on record as saying he expects to be out of BK faster then UAL's 15 months, so Parker (or anyone else) may have a very hard time forcing his way in the door unless AMR and/or some or all of the creditors committee persues him.
If you ask me, Parker's (or anyone elses) best bet is to hope AMR attacks their employees with a complete gutting of their contracts and large job losses. If that occurs and another has a better plan for the employees (3 of 7 on the creditors committee), they could try and turn on management and aggressively persue outsiders in their own best interests, IF any particular outsider would offer them a better deal.
Not much loyalty left here at AA among virtually all employee groups and can you blame them ?
I think current management's likely biggest threat is the tojan horse they've created with their own employees, not outsiders who'd like to plunder AA for their own interests.
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