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View Full Version : taxes and employment in the PRI


Winged Wheeler
08-24-2011, 07:06 AM
http://www.illinoispolicy.org/uploads/media/unemployment_screenshot.jpg

It is not possible to isolate a linear "cause and effect" in a complex, non-linear system like an economy. Still, the chart above from the report below is striking.

WW

Illinois Policy Institute - Policy Chart: Illinois Loses Most Jobs in the Nation (http://www.illinoispolicy.org/news/article.asp?ArticleSource=4362)

In a trend that continues to worsen, more Illinoisans found themselves unemployed in the month of July.

Illinois lost more jobs during the month of July than any other state in the nation, according to the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics report. After losing 7,200 jobs in June, Illinois lost an additional 24,900 non-farm payroll jobs in July. The report also said Illinois’s unemployment rate climbed to 9.5 percent. This marks the third consecutive month of increases in the unemployment rate.

Illinois started to create jobs as the national economy began to recover. But just when Illinois’s economy seemed to be turning around, lawmakers passed record tax increases in January of this year. Since then, Illinois’s employment numbers have done nothing but decline.

Data released today by the bureau confirms this downward trajectory. When it comes to putting people back to work, Illinois is going backwards. Since January, Illinois has dropped 89,000 people from its employment rolls.

It’s too early to know conclusively the full impact of the tax hikes on the Illinois economy. Nevertheless, Illinois’s employment numbers serve as a good reminder that public policies have dramatic consequences for the daily lives of Illinoisans. A combination of high taxes, overspending and red tape do nothing but chase away job creators and leave too many citizens without jobs. Springfield needs to act now and reverse course.


stratoduck
08-24-2011, 02:06 PM
The data in this report does not correspond to the data provided by the official numbers listed in the Illinois Department of Employment Security.

http://lmi.ides.state.il.us/laus/lausmenu.htm

jungle
08-24-2011, 07:29 PM
The data in this report does not correspond to the data provided by the official numbers listed in the Illinois Department of Employment Security.

http://lmi.ides.state.il.us/laus/lausmenu.htm

Could you explain how this is possible and point out the differences?


Winged Wheeler
08-25-2011, 04:54 AM
The data in this report does not correspond to the data provided by the official numbers listed in the Illinois Department of Employment Security.

http://lmi.ides.state.il.us/laus/lausmenu.htm

The link you provided goes to a page with unemployment rates. The study to which I referred shows numbers of employed citizens in PRI. Not the same thing at all.

It is possible that the website you are using demonstrates that my data are wrong, but it does not do so on the page that you provided.

WW

Elvis90
08-25-2011, 05:39 AM
Lower taxes lead to population & job growth. Texas gained 4 Congressional seats and Florida gained 2 Congressional seats as a result of the 2010 census...both states have no state income tax. Illinois lost 1 seat.

2010 Census Results: Which States Gained House Seats, Which States Lost - Real Time Economics - WSJ (http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/12/21/census-2010-which-states-gained-house-seats-which-states-lost/)

stratoduck
08-25-2011, 10:22 AM
The link you provided...

WW

Here is the specific page page:

http://lmi.ides.state.il.us/laus/ilcpshis.htm

It is under the Illinois and Chicago Metropolitan Area tab on the upper left.

jungle
08-25-2011, 10:59 AM
Here is the specific page page:

http://lmi.ides.state.il.us/laus/ilcpshis.htm

It is under the Illinois and Chicago Metropolitan Area tab on the upper left.

Perhaps a third effort will prove to be the charm.:D

If what you assert is correct, then either the state or the feds are liars, or both are liars, or both use different assumptions to create their statistics.

What we do know from multiple sources is that things are headed downhill fast.


http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/ct-biz-illinois-companies-leaving,0,5325079.photogallery

Many companies will either leave or barter their way out with the warlords. How very third world.

Winged Wheeler
08-25-2011, 11:45 AM
Here is the specific page page:

http://lmi.ides.state.il.us/laus/ilcpshis.htm

It is under the Illinois and Chicago Metropolitan Area tab on the upper left.

I followed that link and clicked on the pdf for seasonally adjusted monthly data. The numbers they post, in millions, for Jan 2011 to Jul 2011 are:

6.049
6.026
6.020
6.021
6.012
5.993
5.96

Looks pretty much like the graph in the first post.

WW

stratoduck
08-25-2011, 01:35 PM
You are correct. They appear to be using the seasonally adjusted numbers which show a 1.5% drop.

Winged Wheeler
09-16-2011, 11:28 AM
I will say again that, in a complex system, it is not possibly to identify linear cause-and-effect sequences (a truth I wish could be taught to climate alarmists).

Having acknowleged that, it is still difficult to avoid the conclusion that raising taxes in IL has not been good for the local economy:

WLS 890AM (http://www.wlsam.com/Article.asp?id=2286867)

WW