hyperone

I just received a very interesting E-mail about Fed Ex and UPS working on going to single-pilot, long-haul ops, or even to pilotless aircraft within the next 10 years.

Here's the article.


"Steve Chealander member of the NTSB 2007-2009 is a retired American
Captain. He gave a safety presentation at recurrent training about
two years ago. He opened the floor for questions and one guy asked
facetiously when are we going to one pilot cockpit?


Chealander said that is not funny. He said Fed Ex and UPS are now, (two years ago), working on the procedures for a one-pilot long haul
over-water operation. The pilot would be at the controls for take off
and landing then go to the bunk for cruise while the guy back in
Memphis would take over for the cruise. One pilot passenger flights
will take a bit longer to get approved.


Twelve years ago, I was Director of Operations for the Alaska Air
Guard. I went to a high-level conference and this three-star General
gave a presentation that said the exact same thing the major said. The
only limitation on fighter aircraft now is the pilot. We have the
technology to do everything from the ground and it will be a huge cost
savings. No search and rescue, no life support systems, no backlash
when we lose a plane. So this article is right on the money.

I attended a flight safety presentation last evening from a retired AF
Major test pilot from Edwards, Bill Koukourikas, now serving there as
a civilian. During the course of his presentation, his statement, "No
future attack military aircraft within the next 15 years will have
pilots in the cockpit. The last tactical aircraft with a pilot in
the cockpit will be the F-35."
He also indicated that, within the next 10 or so years, all UPS and
FedX cargo flights will be with pilot-less aircraft. This prediction comes from their test shop at Edwards. All drone testing, development, etc., is taking place just south of Edwards in the
Palmdale area. Sounds like a continuation of the Skunk Works
developments of Lockheed which previously took place in that area."



Simply amazing! Hey, are we a dying breed or what?"



I'm still waiting to read about this in our next Fedex "Air Ops News" E-mail from Jim Parker. Maybe he'll talk about it after his updates on our HUD-EFVS installations, Peltz Bag development, and 777 ETOPS progress.

Wonder what the pay will be for the guy sitting at the desk in Memphis will be. It could be the perfect job for all of PC's buds back in MEM.

CrimsonEclipse

I remember seeing Evergreen working on a similar thing for 747's and C-17's.

Wouldn't surprise me a bit.

Single pilot trans-pac? Would that mean a quick turn around in Asia allowing for companies to ditch even more crew and hotel rooms?

T/O, sleep, land, QT, T/O, Sleep. etc.

Probably live in the airplane, pay the poor guy commuter rates.

Whistlin' Dan

The tactical and operational advantages of a military UAV don't translate very well to commercial aviation. "Unmanned" is not the same as "unpiloted." The only possible incentive to develop unmanned commercial aircraft would be to lower aircrew costs, and those costs are going to be whatever they will be, whether the pilot is sitting at FL 370 or at a desk in SysOps. Factor in the costs of building and maintaining the infrastructure necessary to support long-distance UAV ops, and any projected savings in crew cost starts to evaporate pretty quickly.

It will probably come to pass, but not in 10 years.

Huck

I worked at both Lockheed and Edwards. I've got friends there still, in both places. This is crap.

We're going the other way, actually. We're spending 200 mil a copy on a plane that's carrying FOUR pilots. Guess they didn't get the word at TPS.....

Timeoff2fish

Exactly... Maybe I'm biased, but 38 airframes x 200 Million equals 7.6 billion, roughly. I don't think if cargo UAVs were on deck in the next ten years FDX mgt would be spending that kind of dough.

Boeing has all their eggs in one basket with the 787; however, they are 2 1/2 years behind schedule despite the fact that the future of the entire company is balled up in the project. Sure, the 787 is brand new technology from a build standpoint. Now you're talking about not only a huge hardware and software change but also an enormous regulatory breakthrough. I don't see it anytime soon.

It is only cargo, but have you ever been in a major metropolitan area and watched the planes come in? One widebody UAV augering in around LA or NY due to a glitch would be the end of it all.

But the technology is proven, right?... kind of like how it is perfectly safe to drill for oil offshore in 5,000 feet of water.

Anyone who has reliability and safety data from UAVs please chime in.

TedStryker

+1 on Timeoff2fish. People have been pushing this pipe dream for years now...but it keeps coming back to "where are the savings?"

It also makes me reflect on the sort-of-recent Predator UAV accident where the control console locked up on the operator. Upon switching to the backup console, the operator failed to ensure the mixture control was out of idle cutoff. The engine promptly shut down and the vehicle crashed. The devil is in the details...

matty

Not a very good record...MQ's are the ones that are unmmaned.

AIB REPORTS

HankHill

Heck, even our trains have conductors and engineers onboard all the time and they are on rails. If a company can't operate a vehicle stuck on tracks safely then we pilots should be fine for awhile.

hamfisted

Would the guy sitting at the controls back in Mem still get a scooby snack? I prefer the orange boxes.

OKLATEX

I read an article about the UAVs.

Some fly on a programmed route, and putting a re-route in them requires an act of congress. Others fly using the camera and it is like looking through a straw.

I personally don't think that the cost benefits would be there.
You have to remember that while FedEx Express is a profitable airline, cost control has been huge with this recession. I think competition is going to be tight, so I don't see them sinking the kind of money required to get this going anytime soon. Possible in the future? Sure, but I don't think I'll see it in my career, and I have a long time to go, and that is retirement at age 60 for me.

I guess I will keep my resume updated to hedge my bets. I do that anyway, it is the airline industry after all!