doublerjay

Cospilot has a lot of good points.

Go do what you want to do because YOU want to do it,,,,,BUT.....

Heres the BIG part...PLAN AHEAD for yourself...my opinion is to save for flight training, pay for it out of pocket and not thru loans. I wish I had!!!

I left at 70K a year JOB because I wanted to fly again,,but those were for MY own reasons...now? i work on aircraft rather than teach to fly only because it currently pays the bills. I have a 4 and 2 year degree, one from ERAU, *no I didnt flight train there* plus CFII-MEI...Part time.

Negativity is going to exist everywhere you go...why? cuz that'll be one less guy inline who may be ahead of the guy telling you not to do it?!!!...

You hear this all the time, a good hockey player plays where the puck is at...a great hockey player plays where the puck is goint to be! Puck is fixing to start hiring in a *fill in the blank*

rickair7777

It is very unlikely that the folks here are in line behind an entry-level student??? We are mostly airline pilots already?

There is negativity because the industry is probably at it's lowest point in many decades. Even an economic rebound and the resumption of age-65 retirements will not solve these problems...

- Environmental Pressures (Carbon and Noise). The greenies really believe air travel is an unnecessary luxury and should be mostly eliminated (of course there will special exemptions for the private aircraft of the environmental political elite).

- Cost-cutting. Management has cut as much as they can at the bottom end (regionals) and are now looking to bring the majors down to the same level.

- Whipsawing. Playing one regional pilot group off of another to force concessions in compensation in exchange for flying contracts. As majors get cheaper, regionals will lose their cost advantage and dwindle creating a feeding frenzy for the remaining flying.

- Entry Barriers: Flight training is expensive, and it looks like you will need 1500 hours instead of 250 hours in the near future. The long-term career prospects simply don't justify that kind of investment. When I made the jump (pre-9/11), $300K+ salaries were achievable. I would not have put in the time, effort, and money in today's environment. Also note that after the colgan crash, any blemish on your training, criminal, civil, or financial records could spell the end.

- Cabotage. When management can't cut pilot compensation any further, they will look offshore for cheaper labor. Right now it is illegal for foreign airlines to do domestic ops in the US (with very few exceptions). Imagine a Pakistani flight crew who starts their trip in Karachi, flies to JFK, then works US domestic routes for three weeks (with several FAA-mandated 24 hour breaks) and then goes home...all for wages far below what would be conceivable for a US worker. Cabotage is the holy-grail for airline managers...they will never stop trying to get it legalized, and any lack of vigilance or bad political circumstances on the part of labor and their political allies will spell the end of the industry as we know it. Any significant pilot shortage will increase the likelihood of cabotage, although some of us like to think that a real shortage might raise compensation.

- And the Elephant-in-the-Room that nobody is acknowledging right now: Oil Supplies and Prices. Prices dropped when the economy collapsed, but they will head back up eventually. While speculation drove the spike in 2008, the market realities may not be too far behind as developing nations demand more and more energy (and develop the means to pay for it). I suspect that we cannot increase oil production above where it is now, and it may get harder and harder to maintain current levels. All the while global demand is rising. The price surge prompted the DoD and some airline groups to experiment with non-petroleum jet fuel, but no one is putting it in production just yet. If oil prices spike 300% in a few months, we will not be able to implement alternatives fast enough to save the industry.

Heard enough yet? Unfortunately these are simply the facts, and if you connect the dots they don't paint a real pretty picture.

This is the real world, kids...entitlement does not apply. Just because it is your dream, does not mean it is going to happen or that you will like the results if it does. I'm not telling anyone not to do it, just to be aware of the realities...and for God's Sake, have a backup career on the burner.

BdubNYC

I think Rickair brings up a good point - I doubt it will ever happen though. After 9/11, air travel came to a halt because people were afraid of security. If we ever had Indian or Pakistan crews flying domestically - air travel would slow down again. I also agree that if there is a pilot shortage, which I think there will be - they would have to increase wages to entice people to fill these jobs. As many people as we see here looking to get into flight schools, there has been a huge drop of people enrolling in aviation flight schools. The amount of pilot licenses have been dropping for years in this country. If less people are training to become pilots - then who will fill the ranks in the years to come?

[On a side note, "Greenies" has quite a negative connotation. I strive to ensure that the planet we happen to live on is in good health. I don't necessarily agree with some of the principles behind their reasoning - but speculating Environmental Protection agencies can lobby against a multi-billion dollar industry such as aviation is ludicrous.]

rickair7777

Don't get me wrong, I'm an avid outdoors type and I take a keen interest in the environment. It just seems that the big environmental proponents are people who have no practical experience in the real world. They know how to complain, protest, litigate, regulate, and tear things down but have no idea what it takes to run an industrialized society. They are not engineers

Some of them think we should go back to subsistence farming and to heck with industrialized society. Well guess what...we will need to have a global thermonuclear war first to cut the population by about 80%. Humanity has already grown too large...we need large scale industrial process to feed, house, and care for everyone. There is no going back.

The aviation industry is small potatoes compared to big green politics...take a look at Europe. They are already starting to regulate airline emissions, and many of their schemes will end up double-taxing carriers. They will pay at the pump and then also with a ticket tax. Once emissions are capped, growth is impossible (airlines can't afford offsets like other industries) until aircraft and engine manufacturers can reduce fuel burn and emissions. This is VERY, VERY serious threat to the economics of the airlines, and if you think it's not you should do a little research. Aviation week covers it pretty well on an on-going basis.

Purpleanga

Lowly paid bus drivers. You think you are clever by training when no one else is? That's the whole point, people have realized there is no future in flying. Even if you get an RJ job 5 years from now, after you get over the honey moon, reality will set in. What now? I get paid very little working 80% of the year. It's like crack, good for 20 mintues horrible for a life time... This is very hard for someone to comprehend, unless they actually try it. Ie the crack analogy.

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It's OK everybody......... does anyone know how to fly a King Air?