THERE IS NO CORRECT ANSWER TO THE INITIAL QUESTION...but consider the following.
Just an example on how to figure out career potential:
Write down your age:
44
Write down your DESIRED age at retirement:
60 (Not when you MUST retire, when you WANT to retire)
Subtract: Desired - Age =
16 years
Select the airline(s) you prefer to work for:
Delta vs NJA (just an example)
Here is the guess work: Use avail data to
'guess' how long it will take to make LEFT SEAT PAY: NJA - 5 yrs Delta - 8 yrs (based on data off of this website)
Review both
CURRENT payscales at
http://airlinepilotcentral.com (free plug) and figure out how much money you would make using
GUARANTEED BASE PAY ONLY !!! Extra pay such as overtime and holiday pay varies and is never guaranteed. I would also suggest initially, using the
WORST CASE SCENARIO...ie: lowest payscale, for all companies reviewed because nobody can predict which aircraft upgrades will be available when it's your turn.
Initial Results:
Netjets (Base Acft FO 5 yrs/Base Acft Cpt 11 yrs)
(You may choose your desired schedule at NJA so I use all 3 for comparison)
7/7 Schedule......15 day Flex schedule......18 Day Fixed schedule
(181 days/yr).........
(180 days/yr).................
(216 days/yr)
Yr 1: $ 56,875............$ 62,563..........................$ 69,188
Yr 2: $ 58,866............$ 64,752..........................$ 71,610
Yr 3: $ 63,738............$ 70,112..........................$ 77,537
Yr 4: $ 65,969............$ 72,566..........................$ 80,251
Yr 5: $ 68,278............$ 75,105..........................$ 83,060 (FO)
Yr 6: $ 103,923...........$ 114,315........................$ 126,422 (CPT)
Yr 7: $ 107,560...........$ 118,316........................$ 130,847
Yr 8: $ 111,324...........$ 122,457........................$ 135,426
Yr 9: $ 115,221...........$ 126,743........................$ 140,166
Yr 10: $ 119,254.........$ 131,179........................$ 145,072
Yr 11: $ 123,427.........$ 135,770........................$ 150,149
Yr 12: $ 127,747.........$ 140,522........................$ 155,405
Yr 13: $ 132,219.........$ 145,440........................$ 160,844
Yr 14: $ 136,846.........$ 150,531........................$ 166,473
Yr 15: $ 136,846.........$ 150,531........................$ 166,473
Yr 16: $ 136,846.........$ 150,531........................$ 166,473
Total: $ 1,664,939....$ 1,831,443.....................$ 2,025,396 [/b]
(Guaranteed Career Potential)
Delta (MD88 FO 8 years/MD88 Cpt 8 years using 65 hr guarantee)
Yr 1: $ 42,000 (I am guessing you will be stuck on reserve the 1st yr so I used that for year one - 70 hour guarantee - $39,000 if lineholder @ 65 hrs)
Yr 2: $ 57,960 (lineholder - 65 hr guarantee from this point on)
Yr 3: $ 63,180
Yr 4: $ 64,740
Yr 5: $ 66,300
Yr 6: $ 67,860
Yr 7: $ 70,200
Yr 8: $ 71,760 (FO)
Yr 9: $ 115,080 (CPT) (reserve captain - 70 hr guarantee)
Yr 10: $ 108,420 (Lineholder Captain - assuming said Captain could hold a line in his 2nd year as PIC - 65 hr guarantee)
Yr 11: $ 109,200
Yr 12: $ 110,760
Yr 13: $ 110,760
Yr 14: $ 110,760
Yr 15: $ 110,760
Yr 16: $ 110,760
Total: $ 1,390,500 (Guaranteed Career Potential)
Then I would add in other factors such as Per Diem, How many days worked, whether I had to commute and pay for a crashpad, How many places could I live and still be near a domicile/base without commuting, how much do my benefits (dental/medical/vision) cost me monthly, who pays for my yearly flight physical (company or me), who pays for my uniforms, etc...
You could guess at how much overtime and holiday pay (if offered) and how many extra hours (above guarantee) you could reasonably be expected to work, by asking the folks that actually work at each company. They can generally tell you about current conditions and about how much they make in "extra" income (above base pay) each year. You can, if you choose, apply that amount to the above figures to get a more complete picture. One other consideration; who is more likely to be here in 16 years. I don't know...you don't know...but it's something to consider.
Additionally, holidays, paid days off should be considered.
Final consideration: RETIREMENT PLAN...who offers what and how will that contribute to how long I will have to work prior to retirement ? 401k vs A plan vs B plan etc...
There are alot of variables that go into the numbers but using a conservative approach in the end, will result in more accurate figures. Don't expect to be a 777 Captain at Delta in year 8 or a BBJ Captain at Netjets in your 8th year with the company. In the end, it's not all about the money for many people. Some people want to fly big airplanes and some want to make a fair wage. There are numerous intangibles that each individual will take into account when making these career decisions. Good luck to all regardless of where you end up.
PS: this isn't an endorsement of NJA or Delta...just a basic comparison. Also, if you are currently at a Major/Legacy airline and are a Captain already, or close to upgrade, the numbers would end up differently of course. The above example is scaled to someone deciding on an
initial career decision between these two companies. Also, the only major/legacy carrier that pays more than NJA is Southwest Airlines. UPS and FEDEX pay more also (Cargo 121). For comparison: 12 year SWA Captain (using guarantee) makes $185,328, a 12 year UPS captain makes $223,560 and a Fedex 12 year Captain makes $199,800 (widebody). Also, believing that, "major/legacy airline pilots will
recoup the salary losses due to 9/11," is a mistake...I would suggest re-looking at the current environment (economy, fuel prices, airlines shutting down) and rethink the assumption that your union(s) will actually get those payrates back anytime in the near future. I wouldn't bet on it.