I certainly have. I decided that I do not want to be a career airline pilot. I held the view that the price of oil was only going to go up and up and up over 2 years ago (when oil was $60/barrel). As a result, I decided to get all 250 hours for my commercial as fast as possible (when avgas was still $3-$4 a gallon). Every time I had some spare time, I went flying. I did not wait until avgas hit $7-$8 a gallon to build flight time. That is one example of me putting my money where my mouth is.
I decided if I want to fly for a living, it will be as a test pilot or as a corporate or fractional pilot. I think the airlines are going to shrink until only the people who can afford to fly will be able to fly. That means more aircraft cuts (yes, more than the 400 or so aircraft that have already been cut this year). This will be good for airlines over the long term (along with merging and brand consolidation), but I think it will sting quite a bit over the next few years. Oil prices are not going to go down, therefore I am avoiding the airlines. They have the most to lose.
Despite all this, there is no shortage of new pilots dropping $70,000 of borrowed money to go to an academy like ATP when they could get the same flight training for $40,000 at their local FBO. When they are done, they have these massive $70,000 loans with close to $1,000 a month payments. That makes these pilots desperate. There is no shortage of pilots going to fly for airlines like GoJet, Skybus, and even Mesa is finding hundreds of new pilots. I just don't want to be a part of this.
I am going to stay away from the airlines. My aviation career is most likely going to end up as a test pilot or a corporate/fractional pilot. I know the average American cannot afford a transcon flight on an airliner with oil over $200/barrel, so I am not going to bet my career on it. We are not that far away. And if flying for a living does not work out, I will have an Aerospace Engineering degree that I can use.
Just because someone has been a pilot for longer (Lighteningspeed) does not mean they have a better understanding of what is going to happen to the price of oil. I believe the price of oil is only going to go up and up and up. So far my predictions have been right (feel free to look up my previous posts). If oil prices drop, it will only be temporary (so hedge, hedge, hedge). I don't think it will ever dip below triple digits. If you want to make a prediction of the price of oil a year from now, I will be happy to make one myself and we can see who is closer.
Don't take what I wrote and twist it around to suit yourself. What I wrote is that it amuses us that people who have not even graduated from school thinks they know more than us. Learn to read. There's a big difference between that and your interpretation. I did not write that longer experience equate to better understanding. Clearly you have demonstrated to us how clever you are in predicting our future, and frankly we are glad you chose not to follow the airline career path because last person we need is another one who thinks he's got all the answers. Good luck to ya, seriously, wanting to be a test pilot and all.
Has anybody entertained the thought that the rise in oil prices can be due to terrorists buying all the oil to put the U.S. economy in utter termoil, so it can be easy for them to strike us again?
God bless you brother. I'm trying to remain civil so I will refrain from what I want to say, but let's just say this. If anyone had the kind of money in play to cause the price of oil to go from $11/barrel in 1999 to $135/barrel in 2008 (and order of magnitude increase!!), they would not need crude and desperate tools like terrorism to rule the world. There is an almost innocent niave tone to what you are saying however and I apologize if I seem more cynical.
__________________
Total perfection: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6txOvK-mAk
I disagree. I think the price of oil is only going to go up and up and up over the long term. The only way to lower the price long term is to significantly cut usage. Peak oil has already happened. Until world demand drops by some significant amount (30% or so), you will not see a significant drop in oil prices.
WRONG. That's what the general media that is controlling the hearts and minds of this country want you to think. Do some research. We are very far from peak oil. We may have peak oil in a couple of fields in the middle east and Mexico but not the world. Brazil just discovered 30 Billion barrels. Under northern Colorado there is over 2 TRILLION barrels of oil. In the Gulf of Mexico there are billions of barrels as in ANWAR. The problem is that we are not drilling in any of these places. Instead, our government (democrats and republicans) keep stalemating voting on these issues. So we are left prostrate taking oil from such stable countries as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, etc. The sooner we drill our own oil from these places the better.
Peak oil is a myth at this time. Speculators are the reason the prices are so high. Sooner or later, the crash will happen. The question is will it happen before the entire transportation system is bankrupt and we're all studying FOMs written in German, French and Cantonese as these airlines will have bought out the carriers here.
Gee didnt realize we had the next Chuck Yeager in our midst..... not to mention he appears to be an expert on the oil situation and how it will effect an industry he has neither worked in nor plans to work in.... imagine that. Good luck with that test pilot thing by the way......
WRONG. That's what the general media that is controlling the hearts and minds of this country want you to think. Do some research. We are very far from peak oil. We may have peak oil in a couple of fields in the middle east and Mexico but not the world. Brazil just discovered 30 Billion barrels. Under northern Colorado there is over 2 TRILLION barrels of oil. In the Gulf of Mexico there are billions of barrels as in ANWAR. The problem is that we are not drilling in any of these places. Instead, our government (democrats and republicans) keep stalemating voting on these issues. So we are left prostrate taking oil from such stable countries as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, etc. The sooner we drill our own oil from these places the better.
Peak oil is a myth at this time. Speculators are the reason the prices are so high. Sooner or later, the crash will happen. The question is will it happen before the entire transportation system is bankrupt and we're all studying FOMs written in German, French and Cantonese as these airlines will have bought out the carriers here.
Amen brother. Those first two sentences are key. I had an hour to kill in HOU about a week ago and for that entire hour "CNN: Terminal Edition", or whatever they call it, yammered on about how we're all doomed.
Position: protecting my license until I get the next job.
Posts: 89
Several issues...
I'vebeen hearing since I was in grade school that the peak production of oil was right around the corner. We also were promised flying cars by he year 2000. While Mid East production may be tapping out, there is more to be found. West Africa, the afreometions Canandian and Northen US ol shale and sands. At $30/barrle it wasn't economical to go get it, but at the current levels, perhas even half the current levels, its more than valuable enough to go get it.
And I think we're seeing over inflated prices based on the speculation, also as mentioned above. It has now, IMHO, becoming a self fulfilling prophecy, same as the recession we're in, or not in depending on who you ask. Why are we in a recession? Well, initally we had some serious instabilty with the housing market nd rising oil prices. So, we get a bunch of talking heads talking "slow down" and "recession" on the TV. Joe Public starts thinking maybe I should cut back on non essential spending... and there u have it, well on our way.
Now the same talking heads are blasting $150 oil in a few months. It's at $130 now... well hell I'll buy futures and make $20 in a few months. More people buy, the price goes up, and there we have the $150. And the the TV news people keep puching the "it will be $XXX in a few months." line.
Now, I realize this is over simplistic, but the general public has pushed the economy into a crapper with going out and buying houses we can't afford on loans we can't pay back. The economic policies of the administration don't seem to have helped at all.
Theres no way in the short term we can ween ourselves completely from foreign oil, but we can invest in the domestic oil infrastructure, plus refinery improvements and expansion, and some exploration in the gulf and other regions and significantly lessen the demand. Add that to some alternative fuels, added infrastructure and mass transit, we can get close enough that turning off foreign oil from a war zone won't make us cringe at the pump.
If there was only some way to free up money from the national budget to pay for it... something that was running billions and billions of dollars of expenditures with little return??? Hrrmm Or we can just make Iraq the 51st state and take their oil.
Unfortunately, I don't see great improvement with the change in administrations, no matter who ends up in charge. So, is $150 a barrel here to stay, doubtful. My personal, un educated opinion is it will slide soon enough. Maybe not the god old $1 a gallon levels, but down somewhere we can maybe make some money in aviation. By we I mean the people who get the executive bonuses.
I can definitely agree with you and say the media is partly to blame. I'm really getting sick of people who say "american's need to cut the demand for oil'. If part of the problem is China's and India's high demand for oil then American drop in consumption won't put a dent in this oil crisis. Just go out and stockpile a gun collection and buy a good generator, because the great depression is right around the corner
LinkBacks (?)
Linear Mode
