johnso29

Nu,

It's uncharted territory. You can't plan on them leaving at 65, as it's likely many won't make it that long. Plus, it doesn't take much YOY increase to require another 300 pilots. Just because Delta Air Lines as a whole won't grow much more then 2-3% YOY doesn't mean Delta Mainline won't. Park 50 RJs & you've just made more room for higher utilization of Mainline.

NuGuy

Heyas Johnso,

I'd love to believe in a fantasy world where the number of RJ and codeshare ASMs is reduced and guys retire before they have to...

But reality and experience has taught us otherwise...the company wants as many big RJs as they can get, outsource as much flying as they can, and guys will fly till they die if they get the chance.

Nu

johnso29

Comair is losing another 50 RJs. Already been announced. Guys statistically have dropped before 60 for years before Age 65. No fantasy, just facts.

NuGuy

Number of airframes is one thing, number of RJ ASMs is something else entirely.

2 50 RJs don't replace a DC-9 or a 319, at least not directly. 1 EMB-175 or CRJ-900 does. While the number of RJ airframes is being reduced, the number of "large" RJ airframes that directly replace mainline flying going to such "regional" cities as Houston, Dallas and Toronto is still stubbornly with us.

Take a walk (or a ride) down the A concourse in DTW. You will find many of those parking spots filled with RJs, flying ex-DC-9 cities. I challenge you to find a single city that they do that wasn't also serviced by the -9.

Take a look at the number of seats we have lost since the merger: DC-9s, 747s, 757s (don't forget the 10 that were sold), 767s. Add in the number we have gained...a few MD90s. Throw in a few aircraft back from the beach vacation. Is the number of seats less, or more?

A quick look at EZOB shows that more guys stay than retire at 60 (or sooner).

Not digging on ya, bro, and I want 1,000 hired a year as much as anyone.

But unless and until we have more metal on the property, fantasies of 4,6,8 hundred a year hiring is a fantasy. Hiring for direct attrition only, and an increase in utilization (which is actually pretty limited).

Nu

SayAgain

Speaking of retirements, heard from a friend who is in training at Delta that there will be approximately 4,000 guys/gals over 60 by 2012? That seems a little high...

Superpilot92

It potentially could be a lot but not 1/3 of the pilot group

Columbia

Mandatory 65 should be around 1,200 to 2018, so the same over 60 around 2012. Voluntary, medical, etc. could be quite a few more. Now if they hire mostly over 60 the next few years, then yes, many more.

acl65pilot

Most guys are in great health and will stick around. I have been flying with a lot of 60P's and they all plan on going the distance. Most of them take great care of themselves so I suspect that most will make it with ease.

Columbia

I would guess what happens to the markets, vis-a-vis retirement investments will help dictate plans for early retirement. Favorable early retirement medical coverage/costs would help as well.

Pineapple Guy

That's WAY high.