WEACLRS

Look closely. RJ daily departures 4th qtr 08 - 1287 vs 3rd qtr 08 - 1425. For full year 2009 down (5.4%) to (7.4%). Available RJ seat miles FY 09 down (7.4%) to (9.4%) vs FY 09 mainline domestic at (3.4%) to (5.4%) and international flat to slightly up at 2.0% for an aggregate mainline of (0.7%) to (2.7%). RJ ASM's will be down almost three times the amount of mainline ASM's, relatively.

Brown

Ouch. That could be 250-400 pilots furloughed.

At least the old geezers won't get furloughed. What a tragedy that would be! I bet Prater is on track to be the least popular ALPA President EVER!!

WEACLRS

I agree. I think that is exactly what will happen in a lot of markets. The math is simple.

WEACLRS

I'm not convinced that furloughs will happen. There are 11 737 pilots per aircraft. The reduction planned for September and Fall 08 is balanced by the acceptance of new aircraft - 37 retirements vs delivery of 16 NG's is a net loss of only 21 aircraft in Fall 08. In 2009 30 aircraft retired with 18 NG and 2 777 deliveries is a net of 10 aircraft lost. This rate is slow enough that retirements, attrition, and perhaps COLA's may offset the need for furloughs. In fact one 777 is worth three 737's from a staffing perspective (11 pilots per 737 vs 30 pilots per 777).

Daytripper

Agreed. I've worked there for 21 years and still, I couldn't tell you the staffing formula. (If there is one!) If I had to guess.....I'd say 5 crews per plane. However, it seems to be a slow park of planes, and there is some rumblings of an early out package for the geezer brigade. I'm just not confidant many will take it.....given their history. We'll see. The one thing that bothers me the most I guess is......all the parking of the 737's between UAL and CAL.......why, it's enough for someone to come along and start up a LCC......and jump in the markets being vacated.....even before SWA. And, with the furloughs....plenty of 73 qual pilots going on the street.

Lets hope fuel keeps trending down.......and this whole thing gets re-evaluated.

Has anybody called the union office today...to wake them up???

DAL4EVER

Duane Woerth hands down! He's the chairman who presided over the foundation for the decimation of the industry and did nothing. NOTHING!

WEACLRS

As of June PBS -

10.8 pilots per 737
16.9 pilots per 756
29.4 pilots per 777

Crunching the numbers, I come up with a reduction of pilots of 291 over the next two years - probably a bit less due to the slight growth in international flying which requires more pilots. Looking strictly at the number of aircraft being removed it breaks down to 226 pilots this fall and 65 pilots next year or reducing the overall pilot roster from about 5070 today to 4800 or so by the end of 2009, which is about what we started with in January of 2007.

Ottopilot

Is Prater responsible for the cost of oil? Public market.

Is he responsible for the age change to 65? Government rule change.

I'm not a Prater fan, but he's not repsonsible for all the industry's problems.

__________________
-Otto Pilot

Bill Lumberg

Hang out in your C-17 awhile. Much more fun to fly than any airliner anyway from what I hear. At least you get to fly that thing while the airline mess shakes out.

Chill on the sidelines for now but keep your resumes updated (SWA is a pretty safe bet I would think).

Good luck

ACEFLYERSWA

Good to see that shortage of pilots got fixed with age 65. How many pilots in this industry are on the streets now? Best of luck Cal guys and gals.