newKnow

Bar,

I can't believe I am getting into this again but....

Do you really think the additional 3-4% the arbitrator gave certain parts of the NWA list would really make a difference in who bids what? And as I look at the bottom 1/4 of the list, it looks like it was a straignt ratio for both sides. Also, if I remember correctly, you guys were worried about NWA guys moving into ATL no matter how the SLI went. Ratio or DOH, NWA guys were going to be chosing a base closer to home, right?

New K Now

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Choice is an illusion, between those with power, and those without.

Sink r8

A very valid point. We would definitely have been hurting if our international growth was reversed. NW was already hurting from the ANC issue, and the DC-9 to Compass transfer problem. That was well established in the SLI hearings, Stevens' memory loss aside. The 3.5-year gap to Age 65 mandatory retirements would have been an ugly period, before the N guys enjoyed five years or so of disproportionately high retirements. We would have probably seen lower lows, but maybe lower highs too, as fewer retired.

Now, the switch to the JCBA workrules and staffing requirements helps the combined group, which is good. And I agree: the merger helps both groups a lot.

Of course, you can't deny ACL the fact that we were starting from a better position. People here who are mid-seniority international WB linholders couldn't hold a WB position anywhere at NW, for an equivalent relative seniority. We were starting from better positions, without an existing surplus, and could have held on longer in the displacement game for an equivalent % reduction in flying. The NW guys, once retirments kicked in, would regain what they had lost faster, but would still move back into lower-paying equipement. A more difficult period until 2013, a steeper rebound starting in 2013, and perhaps lower highs to reach depending on how the cargo and DC-9 issues were addressed. At some point between 2013-2022, the NW guys possibly would have peaked higher through sheer retirements, until we would again see more beyond 2023. And that's assuming all things remained roughly constant, and followed existing trends. But when do they ever?

Bottom line: everyone (hopefully) benefits from the merger. Let's move forward.

Superpilot92

MarketWatch.com Story

Delta gets an outperform rating at Raymond JamesExplore related topics
Airlines Delta Air Lines Inc Story

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Brokerage firm Raymond James initiated coverage of Delta Air Lines Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!dal/quotes/nls/dal (DAL 6.09, -0.03, -0.50%) on Friday with an outperform rating, citing the company's recent merger with Northwest, its equity and a potential industry-wide recovery next year. "We are now 20 months into the current recession, and fuel prices, while volatile, remain substantially lower year-over-year," the firm said in a note. "We are inclined to be positive on airline stocks with sufficient liquidity, with an eye toward recovery in 2010." Raymond James gave Delta stock a 12-month target price of $8. Shares of Delta last traded at $6.08, down a fraction

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NWA

Bucking Bar

New, not trying to pick a fight, because it is what it is. But all the same, we aren't flying together right now so I'll just call it as I see it - and I'll still buy you a beer if you disagree, I don't care.

No, the additional 3-4% does not make that GREAT a difference. The great difference is that category and status were ignored. Particularly at the bottom of the list at Delta. At the time of the merger I was a line holding 767 FO, then merged with NWA pilots on furlough bypass and those flying DC9's out of Detroit. Is that status quo? Would NWA pilots have bypassed a line on a 767 in their home town? Of course not, I'm merged with people who's job sucked so bad they did not want to return to it and frankly, if they don't want to do their job, why should I be happy about being displaced into a job I never applied for?

Now that we are on the same list, the previously unprecedented award is a threat to you and me, equally, in the next merger. Imagine if you will the results of an Alaska merger, where category and status are ignored. Now credit them now for future attrition and see what that does relative to your current position on the list, regardless of where you are at. While we are talking numbers, Do you like Apples? How you like them Apples ?

Frankly, I'm still not sure I'll be around long after SOC anyway. The merger is a 5 to 8 year set back and I'm just too old to wait it out like Superpilot92 and his generation. I'd already be gone, but the market for corporate pilots is a lot worse than it was. Still, there might be the left seat of a Gulfstream in my not too distant future. I'm not being critical, it is just that I did not apply for a job at Northwest Airlines, not what I wanted to do. The pay is better now, so we'll see, but I don't love Delta so much that I'd move to Detroit or Minnesota to stay on board and I'll not commute. Easier and more profitable to just go do something else, get a considerable pay raise and tell my kids - "yeah, I did that once."

forgot to bid

Just FWIW Card Check just died last night.

Timely conversation about it with the flight attendants given this NY Times article http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/17/business/17union.html and a host of others both right and left sourcing it and claiming card check is indeed dead.

A half-dozen senators friendly to labor have decided to drop a central provision of a bill that would have made it easier to organize workers.

The so-called card-check provision — which senators decided to scrap to help secure a filibuster-proof 60 votes — would have required employers to recognize a union as soon as a majority of workers signed cards saying they wanted a union. Currently, employers can insist on a secret-ballot election, a higher hurdle for unions.


If you read that article there is a new revisoin that might come into play forr the flight attendants:

Though some details remain to be worked out, under the expected revisions, union elections would have to be held within five or 10 days after 30 percent of workers signed cards favoring having a union. Currently, the campaigns often run two months.

Fly4hire

And sans the synergies and financial strength of the combined company you could have flaunted that WB position all the way to the unemployment line.

I'm pretty sure there is a separate NB and WB line in the unemployment office

Can I suggest we focus on the road ahead instead of the rear view mirror?

freightguy

Yay! Another one bites the dust! 215+1 is it? (Just kidding Bar).

DAL4EVER

Agreed. 3 and 4% moves on the list mean nothing on the unemployment line. ALL pilots could and may feel the effects of the protracted economy. I would rather take a couple year hit to an 88 than be unemployed trying to figure out how to secure employment. We should be more worried about where our cash levels go as a company than be myopic and focus on where we sit on the merged list. The bottom 15-20% are going to be shuffled no doubt and may see a change of base, but when we see a drop of 20% in revenue that is depression era if I've ever seen it.

Scoop

Anyone here any talk of DAL offering long term SILs?

Scoop

Bucking Bar

While focusing on hypothetical outcomes, have you seen the numbers from F-NWA's Pacific route network?

My point is mainly that the F_NWA guys should use the integration methodology on a Alaska merger and see how they like the result. We are in the same boat together now.

True and we are pulling together to make what money there is to be made in this economy, but lets see if your displacement kum by yah tune changes when the time comes. Heck, even ACL was looking to bail when he saw the SLI and he'd be a great guy to work with.

*****ing about it on a web board is cathartic, true, and dammed fun. I wouldn't dare complain about it at work since I like free beer as much as any First Officer does.