Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
I was one of the people yelling about the ERJ gross weight issues... before anything could be proven they were changed. Awesome.
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Some who have been keeping a close eye on this have surmised, and I have a hard time disagreeing with them on this, that once the company takes full advantage of the 3 year burden we have shouldered, it will be suddenly renegotiated/reset, you know, to acknowledge the new reality/economy/etc. Good for AF though. Srsly, good for them.
Also there is a lot of ponzi scheme lift coming to Europe from the fantasy land "Heros of Farnsborough" crack pipe growth model dual subsidized Gulf and Asian airlines. A lot of capacity. And you can bet they are betting we will blink first, especially if it means preserving quarterly margins.
Oh but the EU is so bad off. Liesure cliff. Well guess who isn't scared and is planting their flag on this one:
Press Release | Qatar Airways
And this is the tip of the iceberg on this one. Will we yield more capacity to them, and yield more of what's left to our european partners? Especially with another one about to join the "team"?
And there is a 100% chance a current LCC will go nuclear and get widebodies. Its a mater of time and I don't think that much time. A year to three, max. It doesn't matter if it won't work. There are a lot of business models out there that require endless growth. This will be where at least one, likely more, cornered rats will go to mine growth, counting on legacy airlines to yield to them to preserve company wide margins at any and all costs.
Not to inject reality or facts into your sky is a fallin' party, but...
The 90 has 2 fewer seats than the -900. Two. Not twenty. Two.
The 90 has 2 fewer seats than the -900. Two. Not twenty. Two.
I don't think we will be replacing any 90's for a while anyway. 88's though could start to be parked at anytime. Even if they got the glass mods. Which they now aren't getting it seems.
The 717's are not a parity fleet. They are truly a 100 seater. They will take over markets previously served by 'large' RJ's
Some 717 lift will also replace currently larger gauge lift too though as we continue to dicipline our capacitai. 3 777's to replace 5 ER's...5 ER's to replace 9 320's...4 90's/737-900's to replace 5 88's and 5 88's replaced by 5 or 6 717's for net capacity shrinkage.
Throw in even a little bit of work rule "productivity" changes and another code share/JV or three and I just am not seeing how we will be a 12,500 pilot force in 5-10 years. Even 10,000 seems to be pushing it.
Efficiency gains are not possible given the overall age of our pilot group, plus the percentage of Flag flying we do.
Just drink some nice tea, maybe get a massage, this will all look really great in about nine months.
We are well on the trajectory for a 9000-10,000 pilot force, down over 2500 from the merger.
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If my memory serves, there was a connection carrier out of compliance with gross weight. DALPA was very anti-grievance filing with regard to that.
In fact, if memory serves, tried to squelch the DAL pilot(s) whistleblower(s).
So, in a ssdd way, I'm not holding my (DALPA cheerleader) breath.
In fact, if memory serves, tried to squelch the DAL pilot(s) whistleblower(s).
So, in a ssdd way, I'm not holding my (DALPA cheerleader) breath.
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Say what?
Listen, I'd love to look at our trajectory and see massive growth. Or even merger levels. Or even current 1000 under merger levels. But I'm just not seeing it. Should we sit around and talk about how great things are to bolster morale, ignoring reality going on around us?
I guess we could do that.
But why? Who among us will benefit from spreading false wish based optimism and ignoring present threats and risks we face?
That said, please dispute me or anyone that is concerned about our trajectory of shrinkage. I'm not a slave to any paradigm just for the sake of itself and will gladly buy into a different outlook. But I'm going to need to see the details of that outlook. And mabe at least a little empirical proof of it actually starting to happen.
Listen, I'd love to look at our trajectory and see massive growth. Or even merger levels. Or even current 1000 under merger levels. But I'm just not seeing it. Should we sit around and talk about how great things are to bolster morale, ignoring reality going on around us?
I guess we could do that.
But why? Who among us will benefit from spreading false wish based optimism and ignoring present threats and risks we face?
That said, please dispute me or anyone that is concerned about our trajectory of shrinkage. I'm not a slave to any paradigm just for the sake of itself and will gladly buy into a different outlook. But I'm going to need to see the details of that outlook. And mabe at least a little empirical proof of it actually starting to happen.
Last edited by gloopy; 12-06-2012 at 04:31 PM.
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Gets Weekends Off
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True, and I agree. However there is way more too it than that. Even if all 88 717's are DL pilot growth from 50 seat RJ lift (less the 17 DC-9's that will leave, and they will leave) there are many other areas of our fleet/pilot staffing that can be reduced to more than make up for that particular subset of net additional DL pilot positions.
True, and I agree. However there is way more too it than that. Even if all 88 717's are DL pilot growth from 50 seat RJ lift (less the 17 DC-9's that will leave, and they will leave) there are many other areas of our fleet/pilot staffing that can be reduced to more than make up for that particular subset of net additional DL pilot positions.
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Like some have pointed out, we could potentially see a 1.7ish ratio, but our floor is only 1.56. i.e. room to shrink.
And that's just the narrowbody/domestic flying. The widebody intl isn't covered in those ratios, and that's where ER's being replaced by fewer but larger planes could make a big dent in pilot staffing numbers, even if they don't get an extra hour into the 2 man ops like they supposedly want.
And further shrinkage could still occur, even if our 1.56 levy holds back the floods because they could idle large RJ's or take it out of their utilization.
Until we see a plan, and that plan implimented, to compete and win (reference the absolutely crucial watershed standoff with Qatar in ATH this coming year) then we could be in for a heap big shrinkage. Watch that route closely. It is one of a few canaries in the coal mine and Qatar is betting ours will pass out before theirs does.
Or whatever it is that canaries in coal mines do.
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