In light of what is happening at Midwest, the insidious emergence of large RJ's and talk of Compass becoming part of DAL/NWA, what is the likelihood of mainline taking back some of the scope in upcoming contract negotiations? I imagine it's something management will not give up easily.
Rolling scope back will be difficult but not impossible. Delta rolled scope back in the early 90's. We had little or no scope prior to that and improved it with each contract then started in the other direction. The big scope gains came from actual bankruptcy or threatened bankruptcy. I don't see that managements will get improvements on their side in the next couple of rounds of negotiations. I think the status quo will prevail for most airlines. A few may manage to roll back some aspects of scope but it will be a long difficult fight and will require a strike or a settlment hours before a strike.
Sadly, the phrase, "an once of prevention is worth a pound of cure" comes to mind.
Many, fervantly pray that the last 15 years can be reversed, but sadly from an odds standpoint, they're playing the longest of odds.
It's human to want and hope, but at the same time we avoid what we have created. We as humans repeatedly demonstrate that in all to many aspects of our lives, but for pilots, what always seems to float to the top and prevail is financial best interest of those who have the money (and thus power) and we who hope that one day the past consistancies will suddenly reverse themselves for no reason will release from our own faliures.
We had the opportunity, but it was a narrow window and it has passed. Press on with hope and prayer, but (just as in the past) reality and those who control it through their financial wealth will continue to prevail.
The ONLY way to reverse course now, is the ENTIRE airline pilot profession walking off the job. That's not going to happen, so we are wheere we are and we allowed it to happen.
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None. The only real chance at unity is if Delta management gets tired of the inefficiencies of alter ego replacements.
I'm no where near as optimistic as Sailing fun. Delta's scope fails nearly instantly when put under stress. Further Delta's MEC does not want to take it back. They like the status quo.
There is nothing objective about 76 seats. It is a compromise. A compromise that could be compromised at the first real stress the contract is put under.
My best guess is that furloughs will begin shortly after December 2010 and scope will be waived while guys are on the street, just like last time.
The Delta MEC has relatively easy path to recapturing the E175 and wants to go the other direction. When talking to our Reps, I was warned to "stop talking about unity, people just think you are an out of touch idealist." What does that tell you about our union?
I so hope that I am wrong.
Still ALPA is the closest thing around to a national union for the profession, so if there is any hope, that hope rests with our Reps and our union.
In light of what is happening at Midwest, the insidious emergence of large RJ's and talk of Compass becoming part of DAL/NWA, what is the likelihood of mainline taking back some of the scope in upcoming contract negotiations? I imagine it's something management will not give up easily.
Perhaps the answer to your question lies in the why!
Why was scope given up to begin with?
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"Midwest Airlines, the latest victim of the present day Lorenzo"
Merge (aquire if not owned already) the regional carriers. Merge the pilot groups together into a single list.
Fence in the RJ pilots for a period of time (no windfall)
Operate the RJ's under the same work rules/pay rates as the current regional contract allows.
Pilots can then bid up or down within the combined carrier as seats open up (or go away). Taking a seat in the RJ means consenting to operate under the regional contract.
All new hires come in at the bottom of the combined list. Yes, it would mean right seat in a RJ.
When the next contract comes around, both the mainline and regional contracts get negotiated together.
The thing that is lacking is the will.
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America- Where we privatize gains and socialize loses
The issue a lot of people have with this, is that it does not limit the lower paying RJ's use. Basically letting them reduce the QOL of said pilots as they put more flying under the regional banner. Most people cannot see past the first few years to a point after the first joint contract would be signed. There is where the economics of a joint contract and a joint list would begin to take shape.
Merge (aquire if not owned already) the regional carriers. Merge the pilot groups together into a single list.
Fence in the RJ pilots for a period of time (no windfall)
Operate the RJ's under the same work rules/pay rates as the current regional contract allows.
Pilots can then bid up or down within the combined carrier as seats open up (or go away). Taking a seat in the RJ means consenting to operate under the regional contract.
All new hires come in at the bottom of the combined list. Yes, it would mean right seat in a RJ.
When the next contract comes around, both the mainline and regional contracts get negotiated together.
The thing that is lacking is the will.
The problem is that the whipsaw model would still exist.
For example, another RJ outfit starts up with $1,000 per month wages and pay for training. Commercial and Instrument ratings are all that is needed. People from all over line up to get on the seniority list early and to gain experience in order to someday join a major. The lower operating costs of the new RJ operator attracts the eye of a major. Major starts using new RJ operator, parks its own RJ's and furloughs.
The bar will continue to be lowered until enough people say they just won't come to work for you. So far, the bar has yet to be set low enough.
Carl
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I'm an airline pilot - so I got that goin for me....which is nice.
We need to educate the ranks of pilots in training for their certificates. See, most of them see the 20K a year then 50K a year regional jobs as a three to five year stepping stone. They do not realize that, that is right where this career is going, except for a few.
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