SoCalGuy

Point understood and taken.....but as mentioned earlier.....I'm sure I'm far from the minority in believing that Medical Outs will come faster/quicker on an exponential rate in the 60-65 yr old category vs the 50-55 yr old category.

Your are correct, extra flying will be absorbed by reserves. I don't know how your carrier is staffed, but it is safe to say in today's economy at most carriers would not be considered "PHAT" when referring to staffing. With the higher rates of Medical Outs in the years to come, one would see that reserve staffing would have to be increased, thus leading to "possible" future hiring.....or at best give the furloughs a light at the end of the tunnel.

But you already knew that

JetPiedmont

Yes, but only incrementaly so...

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If they can't see it coming, they sure won't know what to do when it gets here.

Superpilot92

My guess is that alot will med out or go on ltd on purpose, taking a paid vacation until they retire.

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NWA

Rotorhead

With post-BK contracts, illegals and more efficient work rules, many are already struggling with age 60. Not sure about other places, but NWA seems to bounce you from PST to EST every other leg and alternate between early am departures and pm flying on the same five day trip. With 85% of the pilots commuting in DTW and only 14 to 15 scheduled days off, I am sure most will be more than ready to throw in the towel with slightly lower retirement expectations. As a reserve, I always hear about stories of back to back trips with a day or maybe two off between trips. Even in this economy, the walls in ops are lined with fresh retirement pictures nearly running the entire length. Many of our senior guys have Guard/Reserve or even active duty retirements which is another motivation to leave 121 flying altogether.

Finally, some bases will surely close or see reduced flying by mainline after SOC; ask any guy that's been here more than 25 years. At that point, former NWA pilots in MEM and MSP will unfortunately face a new late-career change involving commutes if they want to hold on to their equipment and pay. I commute, it's terrible. Personally if I had avoided commuting my entire career, I surely couldn't hang starting that lifestyle in my late 50's.

as always, IMHO.