The number of guys that "medical out", die or what-have-you is actually fairly siginificant, and is on the order of %25, over and above the normal retirements.
But it's not linear, and as you move past age 58, the curve moves sharply upward, and by the time you get to 62.5, you have a greater number of guys who medical out before retirement.
Because these guys "trickle out" and aren't actually removed from the seniority lists until 65 (they're out on disability, sick, whatever), it's hard to really see, unless someone is interested in serious data mining.
But what you will see is the airline being required to carry additional pilots on the list to cover for all the pilots on long term sick/disability. Since we're now moving into the time where the top numbers are hitting 62.5, there will be an uptick in pilot requirements earlier than you'd expect.
I'm just wondering what all those pilots who retire at 65 are going to do with all that money they've saved? (At least a few are going to leave their kids money so THEY won't have to work). Chances are they aren't going to be around much more than a couple of years after they retire (if that long). CAL's pilots retirement fund starts evaporating after age 62, so the pilots who stay after that will incur automatic pay cuts to hang around. Personally I can't see why so many weren't ready for age 60. If they were smart they would've started saving for retirement when they got hired, not when they were 58. A friend of mine once told me that if I didn't have anything put away for retirement, then I had no one to blame but MYSELF. I'm not depending on ANYONE, especially an airline, for my retirement. If the money is there when I retire, great, but if it's not, well, I'll still retire anyway and live off of what I have saved. This stuff about "oh, I love to fly so much" is a bunch of BS. Go buy a plane and let someone else have a career.
I'm just wondering what all those pilots who retire at 65 are going to do with all that money they've saved? (At least a few are going to leave their kids money so THEY won't have to work). Chances are they aren't going to be around much more than a couple of years after they retire (if that long). CAL's pilots retirement fund starts evaporating after age 62, so the pilots who stay after that will incur automatic pay cuts to hang around. Personally I can't see why so many weren't ready for age 60. If they were smart they would've started saving for retirement when they got hired, not when they were 58. A friend of mine once told me that if I didn't have anything put away for retirement, then I had no one to blame but MYSELF. I'm not depending on ANYONE, especially an airline, for my retirement. If the money is there when I retire, great, but if it's not, well, I'll still retire anyway and live off of what I have saved. This stuff about "oh, I love to fly so much" is a bunch of BS. Go buy a plane and let someone else have a career.
What if you got hired at CAL and then you got sick? No health insurance as CAL pilot. Under the current medical system your screwed. In the airline business a good career is like winning a lottery. It's easy criticize when you got lucky.
Obviously in the next 5 years or so a lot of guys at various airlines are going to start retiring. This will hopefully cause a good amount of movement throughout the majors. My question is, for those guys who don't get hired in the next 5-8 years, will they have any hope of ever getting on with a major? Think about it, once all the 65ers get replaced with all these younger guys, majors won't have a reason to hire for another 30+ years, give or take some expansion here and there. Just wondered how many old timers you have on your senority list and how long it will be before they're forced to check out.
Globalisation will help. If IATA and Boeing have their numbers correct, there will be an additional 2000 freighter aircraft in service by 2027.
I think this is very realistic.
You know, i can understand US/AA/UA/NWA/DAL/CAL guys staying over 60, because they took massive pay cuts and lost their retirements (excluding AA...maybe NWA).
But UPS/FDX/SWA guys are just being greedy!!! There is really no real reason why those guys should stick around past 60
And who are you to pass judgement on someone else...if they want to stay that is their buisiness and not yours. When you turn 60 and want to retire then do so.
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A friend of mine once told me that if I didn't have anything put away for retirement, then I had no one to blame but MYSELF. I'm not depending on ANYONE, especially an airline, for my retirement. If the money is there when I retire, great, but if it's not, well, I'll still retire anyway and live off of what I have saved. This stuff about "oh, I love to fly so much" is a bunch of BS. Go buy a plane and let someone else have a career.
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