Obviously in the next 5 years or so a lot of guys at various airlines are going to start retiring. This will hopefully cause a good amount of movement throughout the majors. My question is, for those guys who don't get hired in the next 5-8 years, will they have any hope of ever getting on with a major? Think about it, once all the 65ers get replaced with all these younger guys, majors won't have a reason to hire for another 30+ years, give or take some expansion here and there. Just wondered how many old timers you have on your senority list and how long it will be before they're forced to check out.
Well that assumes everyone at the majors will retire all at once. Its very hard to predict retirements because, while there is a hard limit of 65, people can retire earlier.
Over the next 20 years, nearly 9500 guys at DAL will retire due to hitting age 65. That does not factor in medical outs of which there are about 100 a year. There is little retiring over the next 3-5 years but then it kicks in around 500+ thereafter.
Well for CAL, the plan in 2007 for age 60 called for 200ish pilots per year for 8years. Basically, 1700 pilots hitting 65 until 2021. I don't have the spreadsheet showing after this time frame. When 65 hits in three more years, it should be very positive for us, especially if we have growth. To answer your question directly, there will always be a chance to get hired, retirements will happen and companies will grow.
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Jetblast: The other factor that makes an off the cuff calculation difficult is the enormous amount of flying that has been outsourced. At some airlines 2/3rds of the flying has been outsourced.
It remains an open question whether Delta will replace the DC9/MD88 with mainline equipment.
I don't think the question is of retirement numbers but rather will there be any good jobs to have by then? If history is our guide then the future holds more regional and LCC jobs then good major airline opportunities.
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Obviously in the next 5 years or so a lot of guys at various airlines are going to start retiring. This will hopefully cause a good amount of movement throughout the majors. My question is, for those guys who don't get hired in the next 5-8 years, will they have any hope of ever getting on with a major? Think about it, once all the 65ers get replaced with all these younger guys, majors won't have a reason to hire for another 30+ years, give or take some expansion here and there. Just wondered how many old timers you have on your senority list and how long it will be before they're forced to check out.
So do you really think that after 4 years of hiring the majors won't have people retiring for 30 years? I don't even know how to respond without getting kicked off of this site...
Well for CAL, the plan in 2007 for age 60 called for 200ish pilots per year for 8years. Basically, 1700 pilots hitting 65 until 2021. I don't have the spreadsheet showing after this time frame. When 65 hits in three more years, it should be very positive for us, especially if we have growth. To answer your question directly, there will always be a chance to get hired, retirements will happen and companies will grow.
There are currently ~450 pilots on the seniority list that are 59 or older and ~350 that will be 61 or older this year. Man Power Planning is concerned that many will retire starting later this fall and into next year. I've talked to only two pilots in this group that intend to stay to 65. Most have indicated a plan to leave at 62 1/2. Of course, when it comes time to put in the papers those plans may change.
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