I remember too well the prediction of some new hire CAL f/os regarding the age 60 issue : it would never happen or at best capped at age 62! We all know what happened next.
Fact : CAL has already taken over some of UAL's ops stuff.
Buying UAL?
How about using the "lump sums" not distrbuted yet so as to "fund"our future?
I really don't think Cal wants to merge. However, when Bethune was at CAL...(yes, I realize he is gone), he made no bones about what a good fit the Chicago hub and Heathrow slots would make. When asked about the other stuff at UAL....he said he would $h..can it. I don't think that idea has left Cal management. I think it's possible UAL gets split in a bidding war. Cal's 10Q is not a good as they would like.....but they still have a good amount of cash....can raise capital at reasonable rates, and are still taking new aircraft.
It's all pure speculation. However...if you really want to know how it's going to shake out....ask Tank...the airbus driver out of EWR.....he knows the date, what survives....what doesn't.....and how the seniority list turns out. And yes....he happy where he ends up. LOL
There's a name I haven't heard in a bit. I can't say anything bad about "TANK". When I was in LAX on an overnight, he bought all my drinks when he found out I was getting furloughed, and I wasn't part of his crew I HAVE heard stories from others though...
So with the above said....how would a merger this fall change things?...if it happened.
You got me.
One correction to my post was that I meant to say Loan cevenants not DIP. Doesn't really matter since the players are the same.
The UAL MEC came out with an all is well update today regarding the financial situation. I retain my position.
As to a merger, I don't know who has the financial capability at this point out of a BK scenario. Perhaps CAL doing a AMR TWA fire sale deal if UA goes BK again? Or maybe RAH buys UA....
"Perhaps CAL doing a AMR TWA fire sale deal if UA goes BK again?"
Or, perhaps play it like when bankrupt KMart bought Sears. Or better yet, UAL stops shrinking to make UAL a partner for a sale or merger, Glenn and team get the boot, a new team is installed that knows what they are doing, tells all prospective merger partners to pound sand, regrow the airline 36% to the levels UAL was before 911, wait till some carrier goes tango uniform, buy the pieces without the crews, brings all our furloughed brothers (and sisters) back that want to come back, expand even further and grant me super seniority.
Oh, and last but not least, put all the phocking scabs at the bottom of the seniority list!
"Perhaps CAL doing a AMR TWA fire sale deal if UA goes BK again?"
Or, perhaps play it like when bankrupt KMart bought Sears. Or better yet, UAL stops shrinking to make UAL a partner for a sale or merger, Glenn and team get the boot, a new team is installed that knows what they are doing, tells all prospective merger partners to pound sand, regrow the airline 36% to the levels UAL was before 911, wait till some carrier goes tango uniform, buy the pieces without the crews, brings all our furloughed brothers (and sisters) back that want to come back, expand even further and grant me super seniority.
Oh, and last but not least, put all the phocking scabs at the bottom of the seniority list!
"Perhaps CAL doing a AMR TWA fire sale deal if UA goes BK again?"
Or, perhaps play it like when bankrupt KMart bought Sears. Or better yet, UAL stops shrinking to make UAL a partner for a sale or merger, Glenn and team get the boot, a new team is installed that knows what they are doing, tells all prospective merger partners to pound sand, regrow the airline 36% to the levels UAL was before 911, wait till some carrier goes tango uniform, buy the pieces without the crews, brings all our furloughed brothers (and sisters) back that want to come back, expand even further and grant me super seniority.
Oh, and last but not least, put all the phocking scabs at the bottom of the seniority list!
Man I needed a good laugh, that was good
On a serious note though, I truly feel bad for our UA brothers and sisters, your management is really driving this once great company into the ground and it shows in every aspect of the operation. I can't imagine how this situation can turn around for UA.
__________________
"Midwest Airlines, the latest victim of the present day Lorenzo"
There have been myriad questions and rumors surrounding United’s finances in the last week. These have been fueled by United’s 2nd Quarter guidance issued through SEC Form 8-K filed June 17. This filing was less than a model of clarity. Additionally, United recently raised $175 million from secured notes. Combining these with articles from analysts who are not airline competent, and wrongfully inferring that the pricing of the new secured notes indicates that liquidity and investor interest are drying up for United Airlines, make a recipe for panic.
Regarding 2nd Quarter guidance, until the actual quarterly report is filed in late July, we will not have a clear picture of where United stands with respect to the other carriers. There are two important items that are clear, however. First, United expects to be in full compliance with its credit facility covenants in the second quarter. The third and fourth quarters were unmentioned. Second, though United’s cash reserve may drop below $2.4 billion, triggering a requirement to post reserves with American Express, it is probable that AmEx will renegotiate the terms rather than allow UAL to default. Last year, United had $382 million held back but reached a deal with Paymentech and JPMorgan Chase Bank to cut that amount to $25 million. United expects to end this quarter with $2.5 billion of unrestricted cash.
As of March 31, United had $1.7 billion of unencumbered assets, including aircraft, engines, spare parts and other. United has encumbered some spare parts in a $175 million secured senior 3-year note. The notes were discounted nearly 10%, with a 12.75% interest rate yielding 17.1% effective interest. People have compared this to Continental Airlines’ recent debt offering of $390 million, which featured around 50% loan-to-value (LTV) and around 10% interest over seven years. The difference is United secured its debt with aircraft parts while Continental used aircraft as collateral – 17 aircraft. Aircraft are a better debt and hence yield lower interest rates. United’s use of spare aircraft parts resulted in a higher interest rate. And, while on the high side, the rate is completely within normal debt rates for the asset class and credit worthiness of the borrower.
Finally, don’t believe everything written in newspapers or online. Readers should always consider the source. This week, an article was written by someone who has no standing in the airline analyst community and who convincingly demonstrated his lack of understanding of the airline industry. Be suspect. We are involved in Section 6 negotiations, and it is in the Company’s interest to instill stories of gloom and doom. Don’t believe them. Is United doing great? No, but it is far from being underwater.
"I can't imagine how this situation can turn around for UA."
Yea. I'm screwed.
And to think that my dad would not walk an application into CAL for me because he did not me working for the same Piece Of Chit airline that he worked for.
I know Continental can do nothing to avoid a default. It only has $105 million of equity left. That's simply not enough to restructure its debts. And it can't operate profitably enough to afford to repay its debts – it doesn't even have enough cash to pay for the planes it has already agreed to buy from Boeing. If you short the stock today, I'm 100% sure you will double your money in 12 to 18 months.
Another UAL pilot ploy to paint a similar dim picture for CAL pilots futures, since they haven't been able to convince ALPA national to throw out it's standing merger policy?
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I HAVE heard stories from others though...
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