Earnings Preview: Delta Air Lines
By HARRY R. WEBER (AP) – 2 hours ago
ATLANTA — Delta Air Lines Inc. reports second-quarter results on Wednesday. The following is a summary of key developments and analyst opinion related to the period.
OVERVIEW: The Atlanta-based company, which is the world's biggest airline operator, is expected to post a loss for the April-June quarter.
The news would follow a sizable second-quarter loss reported last week by American Airlines, a unit of AMR Corp. Several other major carriers also were expected to post losses for the three-month period amid a steep drop-off in business travel due to the weak economy, which has overshadowed the benefit airlines have reaped from lower fuel prices.
Delta is cutting more capacity to weather the downturn, and other airlines are expected to follow suit.
Earlier in the year, analysts had expected Delta to be profitable in the second quarter. But the decline in revenue the industry has faced has persisted. Analysts still expect Delta to be profitable, on an adjusted basis, in the third quarter, which began July 1, and in the fourth quarter, which begins Oct. 1 and runs through the end of the year.
Airlines have had to significantly discount seats and offer deals for business travelers to lure passengers during the summer, which is usually a busy time for carriers. Add-on fees also have been a key revenue source for the airlines.
As the industry heads into its slow period in the fall, some airlines may be forced to make deeper cuts. Delta already plans to cut international capacity by 15 percent starting in September.
There has been concern that one or two major carriers might not make it past early next year if the economy doesn't improve or weakens further, though analysts generally consider Delta healthier than most because of its global network and the amount of cash it has on hand.
Delta subsidiaries include Northwest Airlines, Comair, Compass and Mesaba. It has hubs in Atlanta, Cincinnati, Detroit, Memphis, Minneapolis-St. Paul, New York-JFK, Salt Lake City, Amsterdam and Tokyo-Narita. The company has about 80,000 employees.
BY THE NUMBERS: Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, on average, expect Delta to post a loss of 27 cents a share for the second quarter on sales of $6.99 billion. Analysts' projections generally exclude one-time items. The airline posted a net loss of $2.64 per share on revenue of $5.5 billion in the same period a year ago, before completing its acquisition of Northwest.
ANALYST TAKE: A recent Morgan Stanley research note said Delta's strategic shift towards international is a serious near-term risk. There has been a big drop-off in international travel. Delta is now moving to shed capacity overseas, while it had moved to expand international capacity in the past. Still, investors could benefit down the line, the firm said.
"Though we are not bulls on the Delta/Northwest synergy opportunity — which we expect to ultimately be competed away — recent selling pressure has created an opportunity for investors to get a very cheap 'synergy option' should the opportunity prove more powerful in 2010 than we expect," Morgan Stanley said. "Furthermore, Delta's status as a likely survivor makes valuation particularly attractive for investors willing to look through the cycle."
WHAT'S AHEAD: Delta is in the process of shedding pilot jobs after offering a retirement incentive program. The union says 215 pilots have accepted the offer. Delta, which has cut other jobs through voluntary severance programs, says it continues to monitor its staffing levels in light of the soft demand for air travel. Executives have said they are working hard to avoid involuntary furloughs.
STOCK PERFORMANCE: Delta shares fell 2 percent during the second quarter. The stock closed at $5.91 on April 1 and ended the quarter June 30 at $5.79.
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