Hiring will be very modest well beyond 2012. Retirements will begin again but will be offset by an industry that is still contracting and a backlog of furloughed pilots.
__________________
See the world as it is, not the way you would like it to be.
Can you imagine what a job this was 30yrs ago? The only way we will see our compensation and quality of life improved as an industry is when we demand it. I don't see it in the current generation as the unions spend most of their time selling concessions to the pilot groups. When jet fuel goes up $1 they can add a service charge or whatever to cover it. We have to take back the profession but it has to be done on an industry wide basis so everybodies cost incrementally increase.
As far as the industry recovery and hiring goes, I don't think it will be as long as many think. And I make Murphy look like an optimist! It's interesting that the industry has held up as well as it has under the current economic global recession.
Like my friends AC/DC would say "Keep a stiff upper lip."
You gotta do what makes you happy. Back in 03, at my 10 year mark, I was in the same dilema. Job market kind of blew so I sucked it up and took the bonus, stayed another 5. It certainly wasn't planned and I wasn't real happy about it but here I am, 3 years 3 years and 6 months from retirement. I too worry about the job market but fortunetly the wife's family business can sustain easily sustain us. Not what I want to do but if I have to, money is money. I've been kind of lucky, following my DH tour, I got flying orders to Pensacola and now have 1 year non-flying orders here in Korea but the job is easy and laid back. I'm going back to Kingsville to fly after this tour until retirement. I would say that at this point, I've been lucky. Sometimes, what you think might be the wrong decision ends up being the correct one.
Can you imagine what a job this was 30yrs ago? The only way we will see our compensation and quality of life improved as an industry is when we demand it. I don't see it in the current generation as the unions spend most of their time selling concessions to the pilot groups. When jet fuel goes up $1 they can add a service charge or whatever to cover it. We have to take back the profession but it has to be done on an industry wide basis so everybodies cost incrementally increase.
As far as the industry recovery and hiring goes, I don't think it will be as long as many think. And I make Murphy look like an optimist! It's interesting that the industry has held up as well as it has under the current economic global recession.
Like my friends AC/DC would say "Keep a stiff upper lip."
BD
I can, it was the occupation I wanted when I started flying. I can remember 45 years ago because I was an airline brat who grew up in the airline business. Compared to both those time marks the business sucks.
You are correct that the pilots have to make it change. First step, we aren't management, we are labor, we have to think like labor and quit trying to be "professionals" . The men who built the pilots job into what it was where tough, no nonsense people. I haven't seen many of these in years.
I'll just pop in to agree that if you do get out, *stay in the reserves*!
Everyone who goes reserve has made the conscious choice to leave the military's rat race: it's much more of a "work hard, have fun, no bull****" mentality than AD.
I would like to point out that the age 65 change will effect the job market for the duration. It is true that we have had to endure a 5 year hiatus while those 60 to 65 time out. However it is important to note that age 65 means that the average pilot has five additional years of work life ahead of them. As a result the airline industry needs fewer pilots since they can work longer.
By my calculations it is 13 to 20% fewer pilots. (Assuming that the average pilot is 35 at the time of hire at a major and can work until they are 65 versus 35 to age 60.)
No matter how you do the math it is a large and lasting change to future prospects.
Skyhigh
__________________
Work smart. Work to live. Don't live to work.
The sad truth is that we all live in the past with visions of grandeur for our jobs. The Golden Age of aviation is far behind us, de-regulation is here and we have to understand that. The majority of jobs have changed dramatically in the past 30 years, especially pilots. As someone else said, we are just labor now.
Can we still have a decent profession and make a living? Yes. Can we demand $300k/yr from the company for our jobs? Sure, but keep in mind there might be half the number of total jobs if the company has to pay $300k. I doubt many companies would be sustainable if they had to pay pilots $300k/yr these days, which would mean Ch 11.
On the other hand we can't accept wages too low, because then the industry wont be able to attract qualified talent to fill the seats(forcing the company to reduce capacity). Who will want to pay $150k for college/flight training when the starting pay is $20k/yr? We are already seeing this happen, and number of commercial/atp certificates being issued is declining.
So we need to meet somewhere in the middle and find a fair and sustainable wage that will allow us pilots to make a living, and continue to attract quality people to the profession while at the same time putting our companies in position to grow, expand, and be financially strong.
***Sorry for the thread jack***
In terms of hiring, I think we will be headed for a slow upward swing in 2017-2020 but until that point we will have a surplus of pilots. If I were in the military I would stay put unless you are willing to work at a crap low end airline job if the company you really want isnt hiring.
This job ain't what it used to be not because of 65, it's because of the marketplace. 30 years ago Detroit Auto worker was a great occupation. 30 years ago travel agent was a great occupation. Codeshares, modern avionics, the advancement of third world countries basic education systems, and deregulation have all conspired to change the marketplace to our detriment. The shift from mainline to subcontractor is probably the biggest reason. That is also a result of market forces. Blaming it on over 60 people is the same as blaming it on Jackie Robinson and those that followed him for "taking our jobs!"
Not having come from the Military Arena and in reading many of the Military takes on the topic, there are many great points made throughout this thread.
Looking at your question of 3 years from now, I'm sure there will be consolidations and landscape changes in the industry that will take place. With this, there maybe more 'right sizing' in the immediate future, but as times goes on, hiring should become a thing a of the 'norm' down the road.
Viewing the positives in the airlines 3+ yrs down there road, we will see the "65'ers" being shown the door on retirement bliss.....assuming the government/FAA does not get creative again. Also, with the 3+yr window, we can 'expect' the economic uncertainty to regain some sort of foot-hold over the next 36 months which 'should' lead to stabilization/growth.
Looking at the big picture, either way, your fortunate in the fact that you do have possible 'choices' that will keep you in the flying if that's what you want.....that is a lot more than many pilots can say in todays industry.
Best of luck with your career decisions in the future.
The sad truth is that we all live in the past with visions of grandeur for our jobs. The Golden Age of aviation is far behind us, de-regulation is here and we have to understand that. The majority of jobs have changed dramatically in the past 30 years, especially pilots. As someone else said, we are just labor now.
Can we still have a decent profession and make a living? Yes. Can we demand $300k/yr from the company for our jobs? Sure, but keep in mind there might be half the number of total jobs if the company has to pay $300k. I doubt many companies would be sustainable if they had to pay pilots $300k/yr these days, which would mean Ch 11.
On the other hand we can't accept wages too low, because then the industry wont be able to attract qualified talent to fill the seats(forcing the company to reduce capacity). Who will want to pay $150k for college/flight training when the starting pay is $20k/yr? We are already seeing this happen, and number of commercial/atp certificates being issued is declining.
So we need to meet somewhere in the middle and find a fair and sustainable wage that will allow us pilots to make a living, and continue to attract quality people to the profession while at the same time putting our companies in position to grow, expand, and be financially strong.
***Sorry for the thread jack***
In terms of hiring, I think we will be headed for a slow upward swing in 2017-2020 but until that point we will have a surplus of pilots. If I were in the military I would stay put unless you are willing to work at a crap low end airline job if the company you really want isnt hiring.
Pilots have always been labor, the fact that we keep trying to act otherwise is the problem. The concept and the acceptance that we will never be what once was is what is going to cause it to happen.
Similar Threads
Linear Mode
