bozobigtop

You know what they say about assuming something, well assume this! weak economy, three of the four airlines listed are financially weak, always another group of pilots waiting in the wings for age 65, and finally, where I work having excellent connections carries more weight then flying a RJ.

freightdawg

Gentlemen and Ladies -


There is not now, nor will there be anytime in the future, a pilot shortage. May I suggest a look at: US Civil Airmen Statistics, Table 1

According to the FAA's data, in 2008 there were 80,989 student pilot certificates in effect. That is, almost 81,000 people started flight training. Fewer and fewer people are getting into this for fun - it's gotten too expensive - ask your local CFI. Let's assume (on the high side) that over half, say 41,000, are of the Part 91, Piper Cub - only, Sunday afternoon, fun flying variety. About 40,000 people started flying with the hope of doing this for a living.
Per Year

Looking lower on the page, there are currently 124,746 people with a Commercial ticket and 146,838 with an ATP. That totals 271,584 people currently with the minimum requirements to be employed in Part 121 operations as of this data in 2008.

Now, look at BTS | P10 - Annual Employee Statistics by Labor Category 2008
and hit the 'Excel' tab, then add up Row E for pilots currently employed in 2008: I get 75,715. I then added up the furloughs listed in APC - I got 7,553, but someone else came up earlier with about 6,500.

Let me recap:
271,584 qualified people
75,515 were employed a year ago
7,553 have been laid off
The pilot mills are adding around 40,000 people each year.

So, we may run out of people willing to work this job for under $30,000 per year, but we'll never, ever, run out of pilots.

FD

pagey

Usually just lurk 'round these parts, but this number is insane and not even close to reality.

Thedude

Does this data include non-US citizens?
I don't have the data but I would say as much as 5% of FAA Commercial tickets are foreign citizens. Coupled with the fact that many US citizens are now working as expats. I would venture to guess maybe another 5%.

wrxpilot

1)When I was flight instructing, the amount of people flying for fun was MUCH higher than the types doing it for a career. In fact, I think I only had one student doing it for a career.

2)Of those 40,000 student pilot certificates that are "in effect", you are assuming this is the new rate of certificates every year. Apparently you forgot that a student pilot certificate is valid for two years.

3)I don't know what percentage of student pilots go on to become commercial pilots, but I assure you it's a small percentage. The percentage that become private pilots isn't even that large!

DBSociety

100% of the nearly 400 pilots we graduated last year were foreign and each one shows up in the Pvt-Comm cert and Pvt-Atp written stats. Even with the closures of a few familiar schools, new ones have sprouted up in their place and I can name 20 places training foreign contracts.

GlobeTreker

I would say way more than 5% of new CPL holders are foreign. Go to a flight school, any flight school. I have a very close friend who sells flight training packages at a local flight school. About 95% of the students are from India or the middle east somewhere. There are almost no American students. I still don't think there is or ever will be a shortage of pilots in the U.S.

NuGuy

Heyas,

Making these numbers even more suspect is the fact that certificates don't expire. Think of all the retirees past 65 sitting on ATPs that never get used.

A more accurate assessment would be to look at the number of 1st or 2nd class medicals issued each year. No one is going to bother getting a 1st class medical if all they do is run for a $100 hamburger.

Nu

poor pilot

I never used the term "assume" but I do agree with everything you said. I don't really get the coment about weight of RJ flying. My thoughts were simpley based on some of the possible ramifications of the new laws and changes that will be taking affect.

__________________
The Dream that was told has already been sold.

TonyWilliams

Since most first class medicals are issued twice a year, not sure how accurate that will be. Plus, many of the foreign flying US pilots may not have an FAA medical at all.