Perhaps a little Good News

dragon · 11-08-2009, 07:41 AM

From Seeking Alpha:

Airline Monthly Numbers Show Strong Likelihood of Profitability in 2010 -- Seeking Alpha

Quote:

Conclusion: Several airlines had at or near record load factors (percentage of seats filled) in October. While air fares are considerably lower than a year ago, airlines have been successful at filling significantly more passenger seats this October than in the past.

There are strong indications going into year 2010, most airlines will finally see an increase in year over year operating revenues. If fuel costs remain stable, next year could be more profitable than many analysts are currently projecting.

Oil remaining stable is a big if, but hopefully we can make a few fare increases stick and raise enough coin to need to hire!

IQuitEagle · 11-08-2009, 07:46 AM

The problem is, once the world economy rebounds, the price of oil will go up. A real Catch-22 situation.

rickair7777 · 11-08-2009, 08:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IQuitEagle

The problem is, once the world economy rebounds, the price of oil will go up. A real Catch-22 situation.

It all hinges on this.

RockyBoy · 11-08-2009, 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IQuitEagle

The problem is, once the world economy rebounds, the price of oil will go up. A real Catch-22 situation.

Not necessariy the real case. If we can keep speculators out of the oil market, then the price shouldn't increase at more than 3-5% annually. Eventually oil will be $200/bbl because it is a finite resource, but we have enough to support worldwide demand and growth for the next 15-20 years at a price below $90/bbl if speculators will stay out of the mix.

deltabound · 11-08-2009, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IQuitEagle

The problem is, once the world economy rebounds, the price of oil will go up. A real Catch-22 situation.

Considering the U.S. Mint dollar printing presses are currently running 24/7 and the price of oil is tied to the dollar, many economists are saying the cost-per-barrel of oil is going to surge even if the economy stays in the doldrums. Doubly so when the economies of China, India, et al recover.

Smart airlines know this and are (presumably) planning for it.

rickair7777 · 11-08-2009, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockyBoy

Not necessariy the real case. If we can keep speculators out of the oil market, then the price shouldn't increase at more than 3-5% annually. Eventually oil will be $200/bbl because it is a finite resource, but we have enough to support worldwide demand and growth for the next 15-20 years at a price below $90/bbl if speculators will stay out of the mix.

I don't know if we've reached peak oil yet, but when we do the price increase not be linear with increasing demand...it will ramp up spectacularly, possibly over a period of months, until it reaches a point where some consumers (third world) simply cannot afford it.

We will pay $10/gallon and poor people will be riding bicycles again.

I think 2008 was speculation, but it was a good dry-run for when we really start to run out.

contrail67 · 11-09-2009, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IQuitEagle

The problem is, once the world economy rebounds, the price of oil will go up. A real Catch-22 situation.

Then keep the ticket prices up....to defend it.

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