Delta RFP. What's your guess?
07-16-2014, 03:57 PM
#1
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Delta RFP. What's your guess?
I'm curious what everyone thinks will be the breakdown of the order. Since it's an RFP for 50 aircraft, what do you all think will be the announced order? We should know by October. I'll start:
10 777's
25 A330-NEO
15 787-900/1000
Denny
10 777's
25 A330-NEO
15 787-900/1000
Denny
07-16-2014, 04:15 PM
#2
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Originally Posted by Denny Crane
I'm curious what everyone thinks will be the breakdown of the order. Since it's an RFP for 50 aircraft, what do you all think will be the announced order? We should know by October. I'll start:
10 777's
25 A330-NEO
15 787-900/1000
Denny
10 777's
25 A330-NEO
15 787-900/1000
Denny
20 787-900/1000
I think the 777s are too pricey, although having some already does help. Hell, I honestly have no idea, and Mr. Anderson hasn't solicited my opinion, surprisingly!
07-16-2014, 04:28 PM
#4
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15 - 773
35 - 789/10
And...
20 - 330neo
773 is the only proven, market tested plane to replace 744. The big 350 is still too new.
Already planning to take delivery of 787 beginning in 2020. Delta will not operate a fleet of just 19 jets if it doesn't have to.
Finally...I think they will bump up the order with the 330neo offering. It can fill the gap between the 773 and 789, is a proven air frame and will keep Boeing honest. It would also likely come later in the delivery window of this RFP and might be a solid replacement for the 764s in 10ish years. Like everyone else, that is just a total WAG.
35 - 789/10
And...
20 - 330neo
773 is the only proven, market tested plane to replace 744. The big 350 is still too new.
Already planning to take delivery of 787 beginning in 2020. Delta will not operate a fleet of just 19 jets if it doesn't have to.
Finally...I think they will bump up the order with the 330neo offering. It can fill the gap between the 773 and 789, is a proven air frame and will keep Boeing honest. It would also likely come later in the delivery window of this RFP and might be a solid replacement for the 764s in 10ish years. Like everyone else, that is just a total WAG.
07-16-2014, 05:15 PM
#6
Da Hudge
Joined APC: Oct 2006
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iceman and other NW guys will remember the analysis that they put out on the DC-10-30 replacement back around 2000 or 2001.
They compared the 767, 330, and 777. The 767 didn't carry enough cargo like a real widebody (tsquare just fainted
), the 777-200 was too much airplane, and the 330 carries just about what the 777-200 does at a fraction of the cost. You've pretty much got to have a route that requires a 772 to justify that added cost.
Strap some new motors and a more refined wing on there with the 330NEO and you've got even more of an advantage.
I don't think we'll be able to get around ordering the 777-300ER for the first whale parkings, though.... and with the offering of the 777X now, the price for the 300ER will drop.
So, my bet is for around 30 330NEOs and 10ish 773ERs.
The 789 is a possibility but not much of one, and I'm not thinking the 350 will be a factor for a bit.
They compared the 767, 330, and 777. The 767 didn't carry enough cargo like a real widebody (tsquare just fainted
), the 777-200 was too much airplane, and the 330 carries just about what the 777-200 does at a fraction of the cost. You've pretty much got to have a route that requires a 772 to justify that added cost. Strap some new motors and a more refined wing on there with the 330NEO and you've got even more of an advantage.
I don't think we'll be able to get around ordering the 777-300ER for the first whale parkings, though.... and with the offering of the 777X now, the price for the 300ER will drop.
So, my bet is for around 30 330NEOs and 10ish 773ERs.
The 789 is a possibility but not much of one, and I'm not thinking the 350 will be a factor for a bit.
Last edited by 80ktsClamp; 07-16-2014 at 07:27 PM.
07-16-2014, 05:30 PM
#9
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I'm sure the RFP has nothing to do with this...
Republic becomes North American CSeries launch customer with firm order for 40 | Aircraft & Engines content from ATWOnline
Unless scope gets "tightened up" a little with C2015. Maybe a 1 for 2 deal to park 50s for C-series would be a win?
Republic becomes North American CSeries launch customer with firm order for 40 | Aircraft & Engines content from ATWOnline
Unless scope gets "tightened up" a little with C2015. Maybe a 1 for 2 deal to park 50s for C-series would be a win?
07-16-2014, 06:01 PM
#10
Runs with scissors
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Position: Going to hell in a bucket, but enjoying the ride .
Posts: 7,722
What if...
The whales don't need replacing with similar capacity airframes (777-300's) as they've already said they are going to de-hub NRT and overfly directly to some of those 747 destinations.
You can get to just about anywhere in Asia from SEA with an A330 NEO, at 1/3 the price of a 777-300. You can also get from JFK to all of Europe and from ATL to Africa and South America.
My guess, 50 A330 NEO's. But that's just a guess.
The whales don't need replacing with similar capacity airframes (777-300's) as they've already said they are going to de-hub NRT and overfly directly to some of those 747 destinations.
You can get to just about anywhere in Asia from SEA with an A330 NEO, at 1/3 the price of a 777-300. You can also get from JFK to all of Europe and from ATL to Africa and South America.
My guess, 50 A330 NEO's. But that's just a guess.
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