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"Pilot Shortage" - well ?

Old 08-19-2014, 12:32 PM
  #21  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy View Post
?

Define "shortage" ?
Good question. Most people define it based on how it effects them, which is a problem when pilot union leaders aren't going to feel the effects for some time, and management may never feel adverse effects.

Most of us would say Great Lakes has a pilot shortage, but economists would say they don't, as they haven't raised their pay. Economists look at effects for evidence of a cause. The declining number of pilots available is increasing profits at most airlines, by forcing capacity discipline, elimination of less or non-profitable operations, and ending price wars. So there are the "right" number of pilots for this industry now, as long as it is economically healthy, which it is. For the past decade+, the industry has been unhealthy because of an endless supply of ever cheaper workers, allowing a downward spiral of quality and prices, where nobody could hold their prices long enough to make a profit.
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Old 08-19-2014, 01:07 PM
  #22  
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Originally Posted by scottm View Post
Good question. Most people define it based on how it effects them, which is a problem when pilot union leaders aren't going to feel the effects for some time, and management may never feel adverse effects.

Most of us would say Great Lakes has a pilot shortage, but economists would say they don't, as they haven't raised their pay. Economists look at effects for evidence of a cause. The declining number of pilots available is increasing profits at most airlines, by forcing capacity discipline, elimination of less or non-profitable operations, and ending price wars. So there are the "right" number of pilots for this industry now, as long as it is economically healthy, which it is. For the past decade+, the industry has been unhealthy because of an endless supply of ever cheaper workers, allowing a downward spiral of quality and prices, where nobody could hold their prices long enough to make a profit.
Scottum,
As much as I would like to rejoice in a true "shortage" I'm not sure that is the best for pilots as well going forward. If it results in regionals increasing pay and luring young blood into the profession, then that would be good.... if it means an ever decreasing ability for the majors to feed what they want to operate as a mainline system, that may not turn out so well.
Great posts though.
JMHO
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Old 08-19-2014, 03:10 PM
  #23  
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Originally Posted by scottm View Post
Good question. Most people define it based on how it effects them, which is a problem when pilot union leaders aren't going to feel the effects for some time, and management may never feel adverse effects.

Most of us would say Great Lakes has a pilot shortage, but economists would say they don't, as they haven't raised their pay. Economists look at effects for evidence of a cause. The declining number of pilots available is increasing profits at most airlines, by forcing capacity discipline, elimination of less or non-profitable operations, and ending price wars. So there are the "right" number of pilots for this industry now, as long as it is economically healthy, which it is. For the past decade+, the industry has been unhealthy because of an endless supply of ever cheaper workers, allowing a downward spiral of quality and prices, where nobody could hold their prices long enough to make a profit.
This is not totally accurate. The capacity discipline being currently practiced is only in part due to a lack of pilots, and is only true at the regionals, not at the majors. The current DAL and UAL CBA's severely curtail the ability of purchasing more RJs unless mainline grows first. Other factors include the price of oil (RJ's, especially the 50 seaters, were designed to fly with oil priced at $12-15 a barrel), the cost of insurance, which skyrocketed after 9/11, and the cost of leasing (pre-9/11 and the bankruptcies, a DAL 767 lease payment was $500,000 a month; in the aftermath, it went down to $150,000. MD-80's could be had for under $100,000. The cost of a 50 seat RJ never got below about $60,000).

The new rules, however, do change the equation for everyone. Too much is being made of the new 1500 hour rule by itself. Remember, back in the day, we all had to work as CFI's to get our time up to 1500 hours to get a regional job. That will happen again, and that's the easy part--you won't have to buy the hours past 250 if you don't want to. What has changed are the other requirements to get the job (Level D sim training, etc.), and the overall cost of learning how to fly. None of us can dispute the disincentive to pursue a professional career with such uncertain odds of success (defined as making it to a major).

Another oft-forgotten issue is the fact that captain candidates need to log 1,000 hours of right seat time at a 121 carrier now before upgrading. That will decimate smaller carriers down the road, and probably end the Essential Air Service (EAS) program. It will also likely make it extremely difficult to start a new airline.

The shortage is most definitely here. One need only spend a few minutes talking to regional airline managers and recruiters to realize that. The majors themselves will not hurt for pilots for several years, but by then the damage will be done: most of their feed for long-haul domestic and international flights comes from Class D airports that are primarily served by regional carriers...that, as has been pointed out, are already reducing service. Some smaller towns will indeed lose service, and that is capitalism working at its finest. If the demand is not there, the service won't be either.

There are a number of options for addressing this, but as yet, nobody has been willing to take the necessary steps. Whoever does it first will win.
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Old 08-19-2014, 04:18 PM
  #24  
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Originally Posted by scottm View Post

All of this is before the industry sees over half the commercial pilots in the U.S. retire in one decade, and a surge in demand with the economic recovery.
Where did you get this data?

The only data I have is from APC concerning retirements at the legacies. My calculations for a 10 year period 2013-2022 show 34% mandatory retirements at both Delta and United, and about 40% at US/American.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:03 AM
  #25  
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Originally Posted by Westen View Post
Where did you get this data?

The only data I have is from APC concerning retirements at the legacies. My calculations for a 10 year period 2013-2022 show 34% mandatory retirements at both Delta and United, and about 40% at US/American.
I work at United, and half of our pilots will retire in the next 10 years.
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Old 08-20-2014, 04:45 AM
  #26  
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Originally Posted by OnCenterline View Post
This is not totally accurate. The capacity discipline being currently practiced is only in part due to a lack of pilots, and is only true at the regionals, not at the majors.
The majors are all hiring as fast as they can, working their existing pilots as hard as they possibly can, they are unable to grow beyond their pilot manning levels. Maybe they choose not to grow, even though their existing flying is wildly profitable, but airline executives have never before shown individual restraint out of concern for industry health or profits.

There are no CBAs that limit mainline growth, even pilots seem to have forgotten that mainlines can fly small jets. Some mainline pilots will fly them cheaper than the regionals now. The majors are milking the last of the money out of the regionals, before regional costs spike in a tightening labor market.

For mainline executives, the best thing about watching their low-cost competitors shrink, will be all the seasoned airline employees on the street looking for work. That and empty gates and slots, idle equipment and airport space, and a drop in jet-fuel demand. Mainline costs will go down, even if they have to offer signing bonuses to pilots. This gift will just keep on giving.
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Old 08-20-2014, 04:51 AM
  #27  
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Originally Posted by Westen View Post
Where did you get this data?

The only data I have is from APC concerning retirements at the legacies. My calculations for a 10 year period 2013-2022 show 34% mandatory retirements at both Delta and United, and about 40% at US/American.
The majors have few pilots under 50, very few. Nearly all will retire within 15 years, most during the next 5 to 15 years. That is the ten-years we haven't gotten to, that I refer to. By then the majors will have hired a lot of regional pilots, but the ones they are currently hiring aren't young. We may see a lull in hiring within the next few years, another spike in the heart of pilots in training, already fearful of the next round of stagnation.
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Old 08-20-2014, 05:38 AM
  #28  
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I called ERAU, Flight Safety, and ATP. They don't track where their graduates go to work but the combined estimate was that they're producing about 1000 pilots per year that would stay in the U.S. Majors are hiring 2500+ this year and the trend is for even greater hiring.
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Old 08-20-2014, 05:43 AM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by OnCenterline View Post
I work at United, and half of our pilots will retire in the next 10 years.
same for us over at DAL

Originally Posted by scottm View Post
The majors have few pilots under 50, very few. Nearly all will retire within 15 years, most during the next 5 to 15 years. That is the ten-years we haven't gotten to, that I refer to. By then the majors will have hired a lot of regional pilots, but the ones they are currently hiring aren't young. We may see a lull in hiring within the next few years, another spike in the heart of pilots in training, already fearful of the next round of stagnation.
The average age of the DAL pilot group is 53, thats fact. The list will be turning over in the next few years. You're posts are pretty much dead on.

One thing people arent considering is that the regionals wont ever be able to be what they once were. The new hiring standards have made it that way. This will ultimately shift that flying back to mainline, DAL is already doing it with the 717's, airbus's and md88/90's. There likely wont be any big pushes for bigger planes at the regionals like there once was, the regionals just cant staff them looking into the near future.
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Old 08-20-2014, 07:02 AM
  #30  
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off apc.

delta 12017 pilots current on delta net, retire next ten 4027= 33% not half
united 12500 pilots retire next ten 4245 = 33 % not half
based of required retire, even with some early that only effects the last couple years and not by that much

historically it was a 30 yr career. hire at 32 retire at 60. now the hire age is a little higher but so is the retire at 65.... so we retire 1/3 in 1/3 of an average career. nothing out of the norm here..... apple apple
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