atpcliff

1. Morgan Stanley is wrong. They are not taking into account foreign airline hiring, the number of commercial pilots who have left the industry, not the growth in airline aircraft.

2. The faa stats are not valid, because they don't break out foreign students, and they don't break out non-airline/bizav pilots.

3. The us bureau of labor statistics info is also wrong...I think because they don't understand the aviation industry well enough.

Boeing is starting a massive pilot training program, because they know they can't sell keys that will be parked on a ramp due to lack of pilots. Boeing and Airbus have a much better idea of future pilot requirements than the above 3 sources do.

China is now building 84 large airports. The new Beijing airport will be the world's largest, with 9 runways and more than double the pax capacity of the largest airport in operation today. Recently an American pilot thought $22+/month was not enough to fly in China...he asked for and will get $30+/month. ERJ-145 capts max base pay is already $15.5/month over there.

atpcliff

At atlas we are starting to experience staffing problems, due to block hour and airframe growth, and due to attrition. Did not have the attrition problem 6 months ago.

gloopy

I think he's talking about upgouging regional lift, etc. You can fly more pax with fewer pilots with larger "RJ's" versus smaller ones, as well as moving RJ capacity to mainline.

Of course long haul international is more pilots per block hour than narrow body domestic, but that's not really a player anyway. Pretty much all planes are similar enough in speed that the pilots per segment are almost always identical as on comparable routes, regardless of if its a B757 to or a A380. On the longest routes a 777 will have the same pilots as a 380 on the same route, etc.

gloopy

I wonder if they come with complimentary "ghost cities" and special pre-construction pricing on Vegas condos, for great success!

CBreezy

The link to the collegiate research paper I posted used some interesting metrics to determine pilot demand vs pilot availability. They used new CFI creation as the way to determine future ATPs as a way to separate foreign from US pilots. The ratio right now is 1:1 as far as foreign vs domestic taking the written commercial exam. That paper claims a demand of 95,000 pilots and a shortage of 35,000 over 20 or 30 years. Like I said, I felt the growth numbers were high but their math regarding retirements vs pilot creation seemed legit.

satpak77

RMWRIGHT I deleted your PM, you want to talk do it here. I don't read PM's.

unitedflyier

The shortage won't last forever. They will certify drones, first for cargo then passenger planes. I expect they will be able to go down to 2 crew on long flights instead of 4 and have 1 pilot at the controls all the time. Then just 1 pilot to be there for emergencies and T/O and landing. Then none.

If I were 18 I wouldn't be spending my money on an aviation 4 year degree and flight training for a career that might only last 10-20 years.

Just saying.

CBreezy

While it is the future, I highly doubt they will be removing pilots from the front in the next 20 years.

satpak77

For sure, I would NOT tell anyone 18 yrs old to "go into aviation." I would encourage healthcare (exploding) or IT/computer related field.

"But I like flying". Well I like listening to Van Halen but I am not trying to be a rock star. Next time around, if you like flying, buy an airplane, join EAA or CAF, buy everything in the Sporty's Catalog, and play a pilot on the weekends.

However, regarding drones etc, I think since PAX flying is a business, and unlikely the customers/PAX are going to willingly board a plane with no human pilot, this concept will never come to fruition. "Drones flying passengers" reminds me of all those space-age "future plans" and drawings of those light-fast rails that would shuttle people from one coast to another, etc stuff.

Just ain't happening. My opinion

Mesabah

We will see single pilot commercial aircraft in the next decade. The software being developed is now fully capable of flying complete flights. The only reason for a pilot is so the aircraft doesn't require a continuous downlink, which, has security issues.