Delta and the future of MSP
12-20-2014, 07:27 AM
#23
Looking for a laugh
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 4,099
Originally Posted by Smokey23
Fast forward ten years from now and I just can't see Delta still maintaining both DTW and MSP at anything near their current size. Seems inevitable that one of them will shrink significantly.
12-20-2014, 07:38 AM
#24
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 3,716
Originally Posted by Banzai
Ask 6 pilots their opinion, get 9 answers.
Alright, I didn't want to make entire threads about my personal life decisions, like some other posters have done, but I'm planning in a little bit of a vacuum. So I'll go ahead and fill in my personal side of the info.
Me: AF Reserve pilot. DAL new hire.
Goals: Good life in MSP or SEA. Leave the crappy place I currently live in approximately 1 year. I will not stay here much longer than that. Period.
Assumptions: SEA is 3 years away at least, so is off the table given my timeline. That leaves MSP, which I understand is a year away. No problem; going to bid an MSP aircraft and just commute wherever the first year.
Unknowns: Which narrowbody MSP based equipment will offer good opportunities. Also the more nebulous question: how viable in the long term? (Basically my original question.)
Alright, I didn't want to make entire threads about my personal life decisions, like some other posters have done, but I'm planning in a little bit of a vacuum. So I'll go ahead and fill in my personal side of the info.
Me: AF Reserve pilot. DAL new hire.
Goals: Good life in MSP or SEA. Leave the crappy place I currently live in approximately 1 year. I will not stay here much longer than that. Period.
Assumptions: SEA is 3 years away at least, so is off the table given my timeline. That leaves MSP, which I understand is a year away. No problem; going to bid an MSP aircraft and just commute wherever the first year.
Unknowns: Which narrowbody MSP based equipment will offer good opportunities. Also the more nebulous question: how viable in the long term? (Basically my original question.)
12-20-2014, 08:41 AM
#25
Doesn't Get Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Posts: 2,598
Originally Posted by Banzai
Ask 6 pilots their opinion, get 9 answers.
Alright, I didn't want to make entire threads about my personal life decisions, like some other posters have done, but I'm planning in a little bit of a vacuum. So I'll go ahead and fill in my personal side of the info.
Me: AF Reserve pilot. DAL new hire.
Goals: Good life in MSP or SEA. Leave the crappy place I currently live in approximately 1 year. I will not stay here much longer than that. Period.
Assumptions: SEA is 3 years away at least, so is off the table given my timeline. That leaves MSP, which I understand is a year away. No problem; going to bid an MSP aircraft and just commute wherever the first year.
Unknowns: Which narrowbody MSP based equipment will offer good opportunities. Also the more nebulous question: how viable in the long term? (Basically my original question.)
Alright, I didn't want to make entire threads about my personal life decisions, like some other posters have done, but I'm planning in a little bit of a vacuum. So I'll go ahead and fill in my personal side of the info.
Me: AF Reserve pilot. DAL new hire.
Goals: Good life in MSP or SEA. Leave the crappy place I currently live in approximately 1 year. I will not stay here much longer than that. Period.
Assumptions: SEA is 3 years away at least, so is off the table given my timeline. That leaves MSP, which I understand is a year away. No problem; going to bid an MSP aircraft and just commute wherever the first year.
Unknowns: Which narrowbody MSP based equipment will offer good opportunities. Also the more nebulous question: how viable in the long term? (Basically my original question.)
12-20-2014, 08:46 AM
#26
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Position: window seat
Posts: 12,522
Originally Posted by WhiteHammer
That's a very good point. Maybe there is nothing to worry about. I just know if I was a a full paying customer and flying out of MSP going international I would take Delta connect to a larger base then on my way. However, if I was going somewhere domestically and could buy a JB ticket for the same price I would do that, or a spirit ticket for half the price ( matters to most people) or a SW ticket for the same price as a delta connection. I would just be concerned committing myself to MSP right now. I just don't see it as a strong base.
Either way though I love it. Well done. Very well done.
12-20-2014, 10:42 AM
#27
Straight QOL, homie
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: Record-Shattering Profit Facilitator
Posts: 4,202
My wife's family is from MN, so we keep up with the Delta situation up there.
3 words. Family Care Act.
I predict Delta will look for every opportunity to shrink MSP, as they have since the merger.
It's a very unfriendly place to be an employer, and RA seems to have some animus towards the state.
By all accounts, it's a very profitable hub. But "hub"'does not equate to "large pilot base."
3 words. Family Care Act.
I predict Delta will look for every opportunity to shrink MSP, as they have since the merger.
It's a very unfriendly place to be an employer, and RA seems to have some animus towards the state.
By all accounts, it's a very profitable hub. But "hub"'does not equate to "large pilot base."
12-20-2014, 10:46 AM
#28
Straight QOL, homie
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: Record-Shattering Profit Facilitator
Posts: 4,202
Originally Posted by Smokey23
Fast forward ten years from now and I just can't see Delta still maintaining both DTW and MSP at anything near their current size. Seems inevitable that one of them will shrink significantly.
12-20-2014, 10:47 AM
#29
Super Moderator
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: DAL 330
Posts: 6,865
Originally Posted by Banzai
Ask 6 pilots their opinion, get 9 answers.
Alright, I didn't want to make entire threads about my personal life decisions, like some other posters have done, but I'm planning in a little bit of a vacuum. So I'll go ahead and fill in my personal side of the info.
Me: AF Reserve pilot. DAL new hire.
Goals: Good life in MSP or SEA. Leave the crappy place I currently live in approximately 1 year. I will not stay here much longer than that. Period.
Assumptions: SEA is 3 years away at least, so is off the table given my timeline. That leaves MSP, which I understand is a year away. No problem; going to bid an MSP aircraft and just commute wherever the first year.
Unknowns: Which narrowbody MSP based equipment will offer good opportunities. Also the more nebulous question: how viable in the long term? (Basically my original question.)
Alright, I didn't want to make entire threads about my personal life decisions, like some other posters have done, but I'm planning in a little bit of a vacuum. So I'll go ahead and fill in my personal side of the info.
Me: AF Reserve pilot. DAL new hire.
Goals: Good life in MSP or SEA. Leave the crappy place I currently live in approximately 1 year. I will not stay here much longer than that. Period.
Assumptions: SEA is 3 years away at least, so is off the table given my timeline. That leaves MSP, which I understand is a year away. No problem; going to bid an MSP aircraft and just commute wherever the first year.
Unknowns: Which narrowbody MSP based equipment will offer good opportunities. Also the more nebulous question: how viable in the long term? (Basically my original question.)
Bad assumption. I think you will be pleasantly surprised, the June 2015 category list has the junior SEA 7ERB at basically 11,000. That is about 1 year at the current hiring rate. And remember, that was with no 737 base in SEA which will change with next months AE. That also included years of pent up West coast demand which has slowly been alleviated (LAX 737B unfilled on last bid.)
Guys continually make the mistake of extrapolating upgrade time and time to get to bases, both forward and backwards. The fact that it may have taken a 2010 hire 3+ years to get to SEA is totally irrelevant to how long it will take a new hire today. How many did we hire in 2011 and 2012?
My prediction is that if the movement continues even close to 2014 levels SEA will probably be 12-24 months away from current new hires, possibly even less.
But either way we will all know a lot more in less than a month when the Jan (SEA 737) bid is posted.
Scoop - My optimistic post of the day.
Last edited by Scoop; 12-20-2014 at 11:05 AM.
12-20-2014, 01:10 PM
#30
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Sep 2014
Posts: 654
Originally Posted by Purple Drank
My wife's family is from MN, so we keep up with the Delta situation up there.
3 words. Family Care Act.
I predict Delta will look for every opportunity to shrink MSP, as they have since the merger.
It's a very unfriendly place to be an employer, and RA seems to have some animus towards the state.
By all accounts, it's a very profitable hub. But "hub"'does not equate to "large pilot base."
3 words. Family Care Act.
I predict Delta will look for every opportunity to shrink MSP, as they have since the merger.
It's a very unfriendly place to be an employer, and RA seems to have some animus towards the state.
By all accounts, it's a very profitable hub. But "hub"'does not equate to "large pilot base."
Family Care Act: By that logic, SEA should be a non-starter. Also, I don't see other corporations beginning a mass exodus.
As far as seeking opportunities to shrink it since the merger, well, those are the sorts of things I'm trying to find out about. I do remember reading an article from a couple of years back in which RA stated that he thought MSP was the best run airport in the country. Maybe it was just PR spin. Maybe not. I don't know.
