LIOG41

Current supply of regional airline pilots will dry up in seven years through legacy or LCC hiring.

dfwflyboy

I went to WAI and AA said they are only hiring 1500 in 3 years. 500/year. DL and UA are hiring around 900+ indefinitely. AA doesn't lose that many pilots until later on. I think UA has most retirements in next 3 years, then DL and AA catch up. AA has the most over 10 years though, they start slow and pick up big time. overall in 15 years, all 3 will lose most of their pilots. doesn't really matter though

next 5 years, 9300 retirements from big majors total, and that's age 65, a lot will retire eariler, and with growth, overseas, corp, charter, and LCC hiring, you're looking at close to 12-14k pilots needed to be hired by 2020. so yes, regionals will be drained

galaxy flyer

dfwflyboy

Nice try, but the last time a prediction like that was made was in 1998, "they'll never be enough pilots" was heard everywhere". The AF was running for cover; the Reserves couldn't keep pilots and set up a 30% special salary rate; GA was out of pilots. I knew guys with 3 and 4 offers from the existing legacies. See how that worked out.

GF

Sparta

A lot has changed since 1998...FAR 117 has really altered the dynamic of pilots filling the pipeline...If you are a young pilot today I would say your future looks pretty bright...

Sparta

As I am writing this I notice the Emirates add flashing at the bottom of the screen...they are interviewing/hiring all over the U.S. in the next couple of weeks...this time really is different...

Sliceback

Two links that have data disputing your POV. The third goes into training capacity.

This is not 1998. In 1998 the avg retirement totals for the next 10 years at the majors was 1270. Now it's 2350, an increase of 85%. Military and civilian replacement training has dropped since then. There are huge outside demands that is another factor in play. The U.S. currently has a surplus of training capacity(third link). The world has a shortage that is twice the U.S.'s surplus. That's why there's an industry wide concern.

The airline pilot pool is also larger than it was. Based on that the total demand (retirements + growth) is going create demand never seen before. In the 1998 timeframe the peak demand was expected to be 3700 jobs. We're at 3700 job demand in 2015. In 2018 it's expected to be at 5000. In 2023 it's expected to be at 6000. It's projected to be above 3900 until 2031. In other words, today's demand is the low point in the market. (ERAU pilot demand symposium)



https://www.faa.gov/news/conferences...ent%20Love.pdf


The second link also has some historical data on the percentage of airline pilots that were prior military. It's a USAF study on pilot demand for the USAF. Obviously airline hiring and demand is a key influence on USAF/military pilot needs.

Pages 25-27, 46, 48 of the 77 page pdf.


http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...mqORbw5thiWKpg



http://www.icao.int/Newsroom/Present...29_Sep2010.pdf

Sliceback

It will be interesting to see how many candidates they get. EK's lowered their minimums. I forget which job fair it was but the report came back that the turn out for EK was very low. IMO that ship(U.S. supply to the ME3) has sailed.

U.S. majors aren't showing up at job fairs to find candidates. They've got them by the thousands. They're showing up to see the candidates in person.

Here's the difference, at the job fairs the pilots hope to talk to the majors. while the regional carriers hope pilots will talk to them. You walk by the booths and it's night and day. The regional recruiters talk with us. Their pool is shrinking, fast. I've done three job fairs. The majors are talking with about 1000 candidates (+/-) at WAI. EK's not getting those numbers.

bassslayer

The retirement age will be once again amended. If you guys think any different you really are kidding yourselves. My guess, it'll happen sometime in the next three years. Initially it'll go to 67, with the door left open for further amendments. Granted, it won't have the same effect 65 did, but it will have an effect

skengdon

Outta curiosity, what's the age you consider a "young pilot" as?

pilotc90a

Welcome to the Borg, you will be assimilated, resistance is futile!