Sliceback

I didn't see the manning need for Age 65. Looking at the pending supply/demand numbers I think the industry would welcome Age 67/68. Not sure if the majors want it but the lesser players probably do.

Packrat

Agreed. It will either go to 68 (Japan) or no limit (Canada). I'm thinking no limit is the most possible.

Sparta

Younger than me...
Kidding aside I would say 35 or less...although even someone hired in their early 40s at the big three is going to get several years as a wide-body captain...

galaxy flyer

There are a thousand ways the system, the airlines, the unions, the FAA, the public, will adapt to a projected "pilot shortage". No one should assume the present system will remain intact. The RJs will go away, the ME3 could really hurt US carriers internationally forcing them to become domestic carriers, the FAA could adopt the MPL model, if Congress changes FAR 117. If costs rise enough, fares go up and passengers flee. Don't assume we need those numbers of future pilots and they're not there. Post-9/11, the entire population of air carrier changed as majors furloughed and wet commercial pilots became "Guppy Killers".

Slice back

You don't think UND and ERAU are without an interst in that report out of the conference, do you? I know one of the contributors to the USAF report, he replaced once as the OG, he used that report to get the 30% special salary rate. It's mostly a report for a PME, rather than outside research.

GF

Sliceback

GF - Data doesn't change because it's PME.

The current cycle has a huge retirement link. "Time waits for no one" and "no one has every beaten Father Time, ever."

9/11 did set reduce the demand. And "it's back...."

Flamer

I would be careful about sourcing data from any AFIT document. RAND is a much better source. AFIT publishes everything with virtually zero vetting. Sorry, just the way it is.

Sliceback

Even RAND reports use AFIT and UND reports as references. No report should be accepted without an analysis.

Air Transport Pilot Supply and Demand: Current State and Effects of Recent Legislation | RAND



Couple of observations -

mid 1980's and late 1990's the demand, for about 5-6 years, averaged about 4000 pilots/yr at the majors. The next cycle, which has already started, will average 4,167 for 14 yrs. And the curve doesn't drop, it just keeps on going and going, but perhaps at a reduced rate.

Military separations will only cover about 30% of the demand in the future.

RAND report has charts all the way through it. Demand estimates are in the last couple of pages. Good overview.

And something that didn't exist in prior cycles was the corporate and regional retirements. That's another factor that makes flying a good play for a 2005-2010 H.S. graduate.

TankerDriver

I can tell you that the "special" 30% salary rate isn't doing much to keep us full-time reservists/guardsmen around the office anymore... they've gotta go higher than that. Maybe not in the lower cost of living areas of the country where locality is 14%, but in the Northeast the locality is near 30% anyway. ART retention bonuses are an option, but I think we're a dollar short and a day late with that idea as the proverbial train has already left the station... real quick. The majors will need to hire more pilots in the next 5 years than the Air Force has right now. The AF will never get it right.

galaxy flyer

That's how it was in '98, which drove the SSR. But they never keep up. ARTs are going like crazy, I'm sure.


GF

Scoop

I agree with your conclusion - that the age will eventually be raised, but you are leaving out some very important discussion items:

1. The law of diminishing returns. You sort of touched on this but it needs some clarification. Each raising of the requirement age will have less impact because with each age increase fewer and fewer Pilots will work until the mandatory retirement.

2. The last increase was partially pushed by some Pilots who with their pensions recently cancelled, found themselves financially unprepared for retirement. If the retirement age is raised again this will not be the case. I am sure you will have a few guys eager to fly until they die, but it will be a much smaller percentage then the guys who were willing to extend from 60-65.

3. Even if 100% of Pilots decided to fly until the increased retirement age it would not provide any long term permanent solution to the Pilot shortage issue but would just rather push the problem two or three years down the road at which point we would be in exactly the same place with regard to a Pilot shortage.

In my opinion. Raising the retirement age will probably occur. It will have a minimal overall affect for the reasons listed above and provide zero long term relief to any Pilot shortage issues.

Scoop