Pilot Shortage???
05-24-2016, 09:57 AM
#21
Banned
Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 520
Originally Posted by DashTrash
I just flew with a LCA at my airline and he had an interesting thing to say about the lack of pilots in the pool to be hired by the Major Airlines. He said that he has a good friend within our hiring department who told him that there is only about 28-36 months supply in the hiring pool to be hired by the Major/Legacy Carriers. His friend says that there are several issues powering this, such as the Military is not supplying many pilots and there really is not that many in the Regional world. This is all based upon current models for being qualified and competitive.
I also had another LCA (who did my IOE), tell me that in a check airmen meeting, they were being told that it wasn't going to be long before my airline was going to have to start looking at CFIs to fill positions. I did not think that things were moving this quickly.
I also had another LCA (who did my IOE), tell me that in a check airmen meeting, they were being told that it wasn't going to be long before my airline was going to have to start looking at CFIs to fill positions. I did not think that things were moving this quickly.
05-24-2016, 10:08 AM
#22
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,022
Originally Posted by Aero1900
If I'm not mistaken, there are 25,000 "regional" airline pilots currently flying in the US. Assuming 20% are lifers, that leaves 20,000 that could move up. Assume maybe 75% of them will get jobs at the majors, that's 15,000. Then add maybe 5000 military pilots?
So, there are maybe 20,000 pilots that could fill seats at the majors? If the big 3 hire 750/ year, and SWA hires 400/ year, that's 2650/ year. Add in the LCCs, which together make maybe 750/ year? So how about a grand total of 3500 pilots getting hired at the "majors" per year? And assuming there is roughly a current pool of 20,000 pilots, the majors shouldn't run out of pilots for at least 5 and a half years. Of course there are new pilots training all the time, and at least some new military pilots as well.
The way I see it, the majors should be able to hire without much trouble for 5 years. The regionals on the other hand are in big big trouble... which is good for all pilots, except the guys who want to be lifers at their current RJ gig. Anyone have a problem with my numbers?
So, there are maybe 20,000 pilots that could fill seats at the majors? If the big 3 hire 750/ year, and SWA hires 400/ year, that's 2650/ year. Add in the LCCs, which together make maybe 750/ year? So how about a grand total of 3500 pilots getting hired at the "majors" per year? And assuming there is roughly a current pool of 20,000 pilots, the majors shouldn't run out of pilots for at least 5 and a half years. Of course there are new pilots training all the time, and at least some new military pilots as well.
The way I see it, the majors should be able to hire without much trouble for 5 years. The regionals on the other hand are in big big trouble... which is good for all pilots, except the guys who want to be lifers at their current RJ gig. Anyone have a problem with my numbers?
This doesn't seem to account for the shrinking pilot pool at the regionals necessitating increased hiring at the legacies due to growth to cover regional flying. This could potentially compound on itself and accelerate a wind down depending on the inflow of pilots at the regionals. Like another poster said, your numbers are very conservative, but not far off.
I would really like to see overall hiring of numbers for the regionals of non-prior 121 pilots to get a feel for the number of pilots actually in the training pipeline. I can't seem to find numbers that exclude foreign-born flight students. Someone please point me in the direction of they know of a source.
05-24-2016, 10:10 AM
#23
SDQ Base Chief
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: 320 CA
Posts: 5,588
As mainline carriers add CSeries/E190s there will be sizeable reductions of the regional fleet requiring fewer jobs total (two 50seat RJs replaced by one 100seat Mainline RJ). Add in Age 67, then Age 70 and eventually complete elimination of retirement age. I don't think there will be drastic shortages at the mainline level, and shortages at the regional level will be 'fixed' by shrinking the regional fleet.
05-24-2016, 10:33 AM
#24
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2016
Posts: 443
With all the contract negotiations going on management will never admit to a pilot shortage. Why lose that leverage in front of a negotiator/mediator/arbitrator? Even Bedford at RAH wouldn't admit it until a contract was signed and then shortly thereafter in bankruptcy. So I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for any company to say anything. And if the majors have to reduce capacity because of it, all the better for them, the bottom line, their bonuses and shareholder returns.
05-24-2016, 10:45 AM
#25
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Position: non acceptus excretus
Posts: 561
Originally Posted by Mugatu
With all the contract negotiations going on management will never admit to a pilot shortage. Why lose that leverage in front of a negotiator/mediator/arbitrator? Even Bedford at RAH wouldn't admit it until a contract was signed and then shortly thereafter in bankruptcy. So I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for any company to say anything. And if the majors have to reduce capacity because of it, all the better for them, the bottom line, their bonuses and shareholder returns.
05-24-2016, 10:54 AM
#26
Swearing at the FMA
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: MD-88 FO
Posts: 902
IF there's a true shortage, I think the majors will...
Increase the amount of pilots hired via flow agreements (AMR is obviously the farthest ahead here, with flow accounting for well over half of new hires) or ab initio (JetBlue). Then, more pilots will go to the regionals due to the "guaranteed path" to a legacy/major. Keeps regional pipeline/pilot supply line alive.
Increase the amount of pilots hired via flow agreements (AMR is obviously the farthest ahead here, with flow accounting for well over half of new hires) or ab initio (JetBlue). Then, more pilots will go to the regionals due to the "guaranteed path" to a legacy/major. Keeps regional pipeline/pilot supply line alive.
05-24-2016, 12:39 PM
#30
Swearing at the FMA
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: MD-88 FO
Posts: 902
Originally Posted by kansas
IF there's a true shortage, I think the majors will...
Increase the amount of pilots hired via flow agreements (AMR is obviously the farthest ahead here, with flow accounting for well over half of new hires) or ab initio (JetBlue). Then, more pilots will go to the regionals due to the "guaranteed path" to a legacy/major. Keeps regional pipeline/pilot supply line alive.
Increase the amount of pilots hired via flow agreements (AMR is obviously the farthest ahead here, with flow accounting for well over half of new hires) or ab initio (JetBlue). Then, more pilots will go to the regionals due to the "guaranteed path" to a legacy/major. Keeps regional pipeline/pilot supply line alive.
There won't be a shortage for some time, methinks.
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