Why there will never be a pilot shortage!!
#12
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Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,089
The problem with drones/AI in aviation right now is they are forcing the adaptation into a human environment. We should be thinking the opposite - how to strip out the humans and make the whole apparatus a computer controlled system.
Technology is increasing at such a fast pace that things that don't seem reasonable or viable now will be an everyday thing. Just look at video calls, a decade ago they weren't even a thought and now for kids growing up today, it is their only type of phone call they know.
Just a guess but I'd bet within 30 years the piloting profession will be just like that of the navigator or flight engineer.
#14
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Joined APC: Sep 2016
Posts: 187
Yes but how many accidents has human error caused? Quite a few and nowadays it's the leading cause of accidents and incidents by a long shot. Our aircraft are so reliable now that it's pretty much the only thing that goes wrong that causes an accident.
The problem with drones/AI in aviation right now is they are forcing the adaptation into a human environment. We should be thinking the opposite - how to strip out the humans and make the whole apparatus a computer controlled system.
Technology is increasing at such a fast pace that things that don't seem reasonable or viable now will be an everyday thing. Just look at video calls, a decade ago they weren't even a thought and now for kids growing up today, it is their only type of phone call they know.
Just a guess but I'd bet within 30 years the piloting profession will be just like that of the navigator or flight engineer.
The problem with drones/AI in aviation right now is they are forcing the adaptation into a human environment. We should be thinking the opposite - how to strip out the humans and make the whole apparatus a computer controlled system.
Technology is increasing at such a fast pace that things that don't seem reasonable or viable now will be an everyday thing. Just look at video calls, a decade ago they weren't even a thought and now for kids growing up today, it is their only type of phone call they know.
Just a guess but I'd bet within 30 years the piloting profession will be just like that of the navigator or flight engineer.
One thing he nor others take into account, in my opinion, is the regulatory and legislative process slowing everything down. Good for us I guess
#15
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Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,089
If you listen to Ray Kurzweil, he says same thing and even faster. His major concepts are on how most people think linearly versus technology moving exponentially. If you don't know who he is, Google him and listen to some of his talks. Whether you agree or not, he is fascinating to listen to and is sort of a modern day Edison.
One thing he nor others take into account, in my opinion, is the regulatory and legislative process slowing everything down. Good for us I guess
One thing he nor others take into account, in my opinion, is the regulatory and legislative process slowing everything down. Good for us I guess
Yep, I agree, the FAA will actually be our friend here.
#16
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Joined APC: Nov 2012
Position: A330 FO
Posts: 273
Not in our lifetimes, there won't be.....
Artificial intelligence is much harder than most people think.
The way an AI "thinks" is basically different from the way a human's min works.
AI's are (and always will be) very bad at analogy and improvisation.
Think of all the times you have seen a situation which you had not been trained for..... You didn't just freak and fly into the ground.... An AI would not handle a situation like that well.
Think of the Hudson river landing. Any AI ever built would have maintained airspeed and landed straight ahead-right into buildings.
Humans are much better at flying than an AI which exists now-or any which will exist for centuries.
Artificial intelligence is much harder than most people think.
The way an AI "thinks" is basically different from the way a human's min works.
AI's are (and always will be) very bad at analogy and improvisation.
Think of all the times you have seen a situation which you had not been trained for..... You didn't just freak and fly into the ground.... An AI would not handle a situation like that well.
Think of the Hudson river landing. Any AI ever built would have maintained airspeed and landed straight ahead-right into buildings.
Humans are much better at flying than an AI which exists now-or any which will exist for centuries.
#17
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Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 529
I believe the entire world economy will be transformed by automation before it takes over the cockpit. There will be millions displaced by robot labor before we are and the world will look entirely differnt at that point. Maybe a small fraction on the population that works today will be running the system. I strongly doubt flying is in the top ten occupations on the chopping block.
Think about it this way: the plane still has to be full of paying passengers, how will all those passengers pay if they are out of work? The entire labor force will be subject to these changes, but pilot labor will be one of the last to go. Might be 50-100yrs ?
Think about it this way: the plane still has to be full of paying passengers, how will all those passengers pay if they are out of work? The entire labor force will be subject to these changes, but pilot labor will be one of the last to go. Might be 50-100yrs ?
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,089
I believe the entire world economy will be transformed by automation before it takes over the cockpit. There will be millions displaced by robot labor before we are and the world will look entirely differnt at that point. Maybe a small fraction on the population that works today will be running the system. I strongly doubt flying is in the top ten occupations on the chopping block.
Think about it this way: the plane still has to be full of paying passengers, how will all those passengers pay if they are out of work? The entire labor force will be subject to these changes, but pilot labor will be one of the last to go. Might be 50-100yrs ?
Think about it this way: the plane still has to be full of paying passengers, how will all those passengers pay if they are out of work? The entire labor force will be subject to these changes, but pilot labor will be one of the last to go. Might be 50-100yrs ?
I think we will see the same thing here.
#19
I believe the entire world economy will be transformed by automation before it takes over the cockpit. There will be millions displaced by robot labor before we are and the world will look entirely differnt at that point. Maybe a small fraction on the population that works today will be running the system. I strongly doubt flying is in the top ten occupations on the chopping block.
Think about it this way: the plane still has to be full of paying passengers, how will all those passengers pay if they are out of work? The entire labor force will be subject to these changes, but pilot labor will be one of the last to go. Might be 50-100yrs ?
Think about it this way: the plane still has to be full of paying passengers, how will all those passengers pay if they are out of work? The entire labor force will be subject to these changes, but pilot labor will be one of the last to go. Might be 50-100yrs ?
It's the way of the future!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4_Pbx9mvWPY
#20
Check this out if you still think that computers/AI/robotics simply just shift the workforce around rather than replace it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
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