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Why there will never be a pilot shortage!!

Old 10-19-2016, 06:22 AM
  #11  
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Sioux City Accident: No procedure for what happened, AI can not reason like humans and that is what saved the day and why a human will always be in the flightdeck.
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Old 10-19-2016, 07:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Bucknut View Post
Sioux City Accident: No procedure for what happened, AI can not reason like humans and that is what saved the day and why a human will always be in the flightdeck.
Yes but how many accidents has human error caused? Quite a few and nowadays it's the leading cause of accidents and incidents by a long shot. Our aircraft are so reliable now that it's pretty much the only thing that goes wrong that causes an accident.

The problem with drones/AI in aviation right now is they are forcing the adaptation into a human environment. We should be thinking the opposite - how to strip out the humans and make the whole apparatus a computer controlled system.

Technology is increasing at such a fast pace that things that don't seem reasonable or viable now will be an everyday thing. Just look at video calls, a decade ago they weren't even a thought and now for kids growing up today, it is their only type of phone call they know.

Just a guess but I'd bet within 30 years the piloting profession will be just like that of the navigator or flight engineer.
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Old 10-19-2016, 08:03 AM
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You'll see single pilot 121 ops before you will ever see airline passenger drones.
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Old 10-19-2016, 09:08 AM
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Originally Posted by Name User View Post
Yes but how many accidents has human error caused? Quite a few and nowadays it's the leading cause of accidents and incidents by a long shot. Our aircraft are so reliable now that it's pretty much the only thing that goes wrong that causes an accident.

The problem with drones/AI in aviation right now is they are forcing the adaptation into a human environment. We should be thinking the opposite - how to strip out the humans and make the whole apparatus a computer controlled system.

Technology is increasing at such a fast pace that things that don't seem reasonable or viable now will be an everyday thing. Just look at video calls, a decade ago they weren't even a thought and now for kids growing up today, it is their only type of phone call they know.

Just a guess but I'd bet within 30 years the piloting profession will be just like that of the navigator or flight engineer.
If you listen to Ray Kurzweil, he says same thing and even faster. His major concepts are on how most people think linearly versus technology moving exponentially. If you don't know who he is, Google him and listen to some of his talks. Whether you agree or not, he is fascinating to listen to and is sort of a modern day Edison.

One thing he nor others take into account, in my opinion, is the regulatory and legislative process slowing everything down. Good for us I guess
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Old 10-19-2016, 09:21 AM
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Originally Posted by AFTrainerGuy View Post
If you listen to Ray Kurzweil, he says same thing and even faster. His major concepts are on how most people think linearly versus technology moving exponentially. If you don't know who he is, Google him and listen to some of his talks. Whether you agree or not, he is fascinating to listen to and is sort of a modern day Edison.

One thing he nor others take into account, in my opinion, is the regulatory and legislative process slowing everything down. Good for us I guess
I'll check him out.

Yep, I agree, the FAA will actually be our friend here.
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Old 10-19-2016, 09:28 AM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
Not in our lifetimes, there won't be.....

Artificial intelligence is much harder than most people think.

The way an AI "thinks" is basically different from the way a human's min works.

AI's are (and always will be) very bad at analogy and improvisation.

Think of all the times you have seen a situation which you had not been trained for..... You didn't just freak and fly into the ground.... An AI would not handle a situation like that well.

Think of the Hudson river landing. Any AI ever built would have maintained airspeed and landed straight ahead-right into buildings.

Humans are much better at flying than an AI which exists now-or any which will exist for centuries.
Don't most of the Legacies already hire human robots? I thought they tested the top performers and then make candidates take the same test and you must you fall within the same parameters to get hired. I always wonder if the test data and scores will be used to program these droids someday. Humans are still cheaper than a mechanical robot for now, but we have to poop, eat and sleep cutting in to productivity. More importantly can the FAA violate R2D2 for a navigation deviation? He did save Luke's skin many times though.
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Old 10-19-2016, 11:17 AM
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I believe the entire world economy will be transformed by automation before it takes over the cockpit. There will be millions displaced by robot labor before we are and the world will look entirely differnt at that point. Maybe a small fraction on the population that works today will be running the system. I strongly doubt flying is in the top ten occupations on the chopping block.
Think about it this way: the plane still has to be full of paying passengers, how will all those passengers pay if they are out of work? The entire labor force will be subject to these changes, but pilot labor will be one of the last to go. Might be 50-100yrs ?
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Old 10-19-2016, 11:36 AM
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Originally Posted by TimetoClimb View Post
I believe the entire world economy will be transformed by automation before it takes over the cockpit. There will be millions displaced by robot labor before we are and the world will look entirely differnt at that point. Maybe a small fraction on the population that works today will be running the system. I strongly doubt flying is in the top ten occupations on the chopping block.
Think about it this way: the plane still has to be full of paying passengers, how will all those passengers pay if they are out of work? The entire labor force will be subject to these changes, but pilot labor will be one of the last to go. Might be 50-100yrs ?
Think how many jobs the car destroyed. Then look at how many it helped create, either directly or indirectly.

I think we will see the same thing here.
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Old 10-19-2016, 11:41 AM
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Originally Posted by TimetoClimb View Post
I believe the entire world economy will be transformed by automation before it takes over the cockpit. There will be millions displaced by robot labor before we are and the world will look entirely differnt at that point. Maybe a small fraction on the population that works today will be running the system. I strongly doubt flying is in the top ten occupations on the chopping block.
Think about it this way: the plane still has to be full of paying passengers, how will all those passengers pay if they are out of work? The entire labor force will be subject to these changes, but pilot labor will be one of the last to go. Might be 50-100yrs ?
By that time you'll be paying Elon Musk royalties to ride on a version of his hyperloop train!

It's the way of the future!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4_Pbx9mvWPY
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Old 10-19-2016, 12:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Name User View Post
Think how many jobs the car destroyed. Then look at how many it helped create, either directly or indirectly.

I think we will see the same thing here.
That logic does not work when it comes to AI/computers. The car put horses out of work. What job replaced the cashiers self-checkout lanes replaced? The number of accountants a large company used to need was much larger than what they need now thanks to computers. And recently HR departments are also shrinking as new computer-based systems allow less staff to do more work.

Check this out if you still think that computers/AI/robotics simply just shift the workforce around rather than replace it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
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