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Mergers and Acquisitions Facts, rumors, and conjecture

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Old 05-06-2008, 04:27 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default The Myth of Delta early retirements

On both this forum and in personal conversations with NWA pilots I have found that they have been given some poor information about the Delta early retirements. Most are under the impression that Delta pilots gained thousands of numbers. Here are the actual numbers.

In the three years before we faced liquidity shortfall (10/1/2002 – 10/1/2005) we had about 2,200 pilots retire. About 1,450 of those pilots would have retired by December 2007 (when the FAA retirement age changed). Of those 750 left, about 250 were on long term disability. Of the 450 left, 100 would not be in the top 33% of our list today. Therefore, you are talking about 350 pilots that early retired that held active flying positions and would be in the top 33% on our list. A significant number but not the “thousands” that the Northwest pilots expect.

Note: Of the remaining 350 pilots some would have been lost to attrition so the actual number would even be a bit smaller.
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Old 05-06-2008, 05:43 PM   #2 (permalink)
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In the three years before we faced liquidity shortfall (10/1/2002 – 10/1/2005) we had about 2,200 pilots retire. About 1,450 of those pilots would have retired by December 2007 (when the FAA retirement age changed). Of those 750 left, about 250 were on long term disability. Of the 450 left, 100 would not be in the top 33% of our list today. .
this is something that is often forgotten. The early retirements happened three years ago now. The vast majority of the pilots who retired early were in their late 50's anyway, and would have been gone before the retirement age changed.
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Old 05-06-2008, 05:52 PM   #3 (permalink)
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I am sure that the MEC has shown this to the NWA folks. If we go to arbitration it will be one of the arguments we make against a slotted SLI.
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Old 05-06-2008, 06:24 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by sailingfun View Post
On both this forum and in personal conversations with NWA pilots I have found that they have been given some poor information about the Delta early retirements. Most are under the impression that Delta pilots gained thousands of numbers. Here are the actual numbers.

In the three years before we faced liquidity shortfall (10/1/2002 – 10/1/2005) we had about 2,200 pilots retire. About 1,450 of those pilots would have retired by December 2007 (when the FAA retirement age changed). Of those 750 left, about 250 were on long term disability. Of the 450 left, 100 would not be in the top 33% of our list today. Therefore, you are talking about 350 pilots that early retired that held active flying positions and would be in the top 33% on our list. A significant number but not the “thousands” that the Northwest pilots expect.

Note: Of the remaining 350 pilots some would have been lost to attrition so the actual number would even be a bit smaller.

Good information.... Thanks!
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Old 05-06-2008, 06:52 PM   #5 (permalink)
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I am sure that the MEC has shown this to the NWA folks. If we go to arbitration it will be one of the arguments we make against a slotted SLI.
If this goes to arbitration, you won't be making an argument against a slotted SLI. The Delta side will need to be making arguments against straight Date of Hire and no fences. The NWA side will be making arguments against a straight mathematical ratio and no fences.

You seem to think that a slotted SLI represents an extreme position, it does not. The two positions mentioned above are the extreme ones, and as such, will be the two sides' positions in arbitration.

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Old 05-06-2008, 08:38 PM   #6 (permalink)
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If this goes to arbitration, you won't be making an argument against a slotted SLI. The Delta side will need to be making arguments against straight Date of Hire and no fences. The NWA side will be making arguments against a straight mathematical ratio and no fences.

You seem to think that a slotted SLI represents an extreme position, it does not. The two positions mentioned above are the extreme ones, and as such, will be the two sides' positions in arbitration.

Carl
Carl, as long as we can speculate on extreme positions, DAL would probably prefer "ratio based on aircraft payrates/benefits" to counter NWA's "date of hire". Or is that an "unreasonable" "extreme" position?
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Old 05-07-2008, 04:25 AM   #7 (permalink)
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NWA will not make a DOH case. They did not open for DOH in the last SLI negotiations and won't do it with the arbitrator. DOH is not part of ALPA merger policy. Its a bit pointless to argue something the arbitrator can't use hence the reason NWA did not use DOH in the first round. I am sure the thrust of the NWA case will be career expectations via future retirements.
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Old 05-07-2008, 07:23 AM   #8 (permalink)
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NWA will not make a DOH case. They did not open for DOH in the last SLI negotiations and won't do it with the arbitrator. DOH is not part of ALPA merger policy. Its a bit pointless to argue something the arbitrator can't use hence the reason NWA did not use DOH in the first round. I am sure the thrust of the NWA case will be career expectations via future retirements.
Fair enough, but I was just trying to make the point that if "openers" have some sort of relevance to an arbitrator, such as establishing a "base" from which to negotiate from, then it would seem to be in each pilot groups' interest to start from an "extreme" that favors their respective positions. Also, while alpa merger policy does not include DOH, a careful reading of the Nicalau award indicates DOH was considered, but not necessarily acted upon (judging from the results). (the 500 USair guys at the top were awarded based on equipment brought to the merger)
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Old 05-07-2008, 09:06 AM   #9 (permalink)
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If this goes to arbitration, you won't be making an argument against a slotted SLI. The Delta side will need to be making arguments against straight Date of Hire and no fences. The NWA side will be making arguments against a straight mathematical ratio and no fences.

You seem to think that a slotted SLI represents an extreme position, it does not. The two positions mentioned above are the extreme ones, and as such, will be the two sides' positions in arbitration.

Carl
It appears that some NWA guys' modus operandi on this forum has switched from belligerence to passive-aggressiveness.

Old school NWA guys like Carl no longer rant and rave...they just toss in red herrings (yeah, Carl, an arbitrator is going to go with straight DOH) in order to muddy the waters and derail any meaningful suggestions or rational solutions.

Despite the efforts of many calming voices on each side, the disgruntled, irrational old-timers at NWA are doing everything they can to put up roadblocks unless they receive a windfall.

Good luck with that.

In the meantime, the rational folk will be trying to restore pay and get a rational SLI. I would think a 74 captain, for example, would want the same, since he has the most to gain by getting a new contract/SLI squared away as quickly as possible.
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Old 05-07-2008, 11:24 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Carl Spackler View Post
If this goes to arbitration, you won't be making an argument against a slotted SLI. The Delta side will need to be making arguments against straight Date of Hire and no fences. The NWA side will be making arguments against a straight mathematical ratio and no fences.

You seem to think that a slotted SLI represents an extreme position, it does not. The two positions mentioned above are the extreme ones, and as such, will be the two sides' positions in arbitration.

Carl
Carl a straight mathematical ratio or ratios is not an extreme position it is in fact the outcome of the last arbitrated seniority list (America West and US Air). NW might have to argue against a list constructed by current pay rates or a list which accounts for less fuel efficient aircraft or a list which fully encompasses future growth from the business plans or a list which takes into account all three of those factors. What if the process delays and Northwest pilots start to get furloughed when the freighters are parked and Delta is hiring pilots to fill 777-LR slots? What if a few more DC-9's are parked when Delta gets more 737-700's and MD-90's? How many pilots will get furloughed then. You don't think it could worse for your pilots, but it could get very much worse. Maybe you are comfortable in the left seat of your Whale but a lot of your more junior pilots might not be so comfortable.

A mathematical ratio or ratios is not an extreme position, it is going to be the outcome of an arbitration if there is one. Get used to it. The sooner you guys get on board the sooner you can join in the growth at Delta. If your MEC is afraid to make the decision then it will be done for them sometime a few years from now. If that happens then it will be a shame. You have already thrown away a bunch of money, how much worse does it have to get before your MEC will do what they need to do.
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