Justin Case

Is this merger going to happen? When?

whaledriver1

thursday @ 10:42 am...

Justdoinmyjob

As soon as everyone at DOJ drops dead and there is no one to disallow it.

Seriously, do you really think that they are going to let the biggest airline in the world buy another one and totaly dominate the domestic market? The divestitures required would negate any synergies produced by the NW merger. More like AA or CAL at the outside.

acl65pilot

You might want to Q-in RA and the boys. They have a totally different take on this than you do.

Justdoinmyjob

I'm sure that they have a lot of totally different takes on many subjects, however, that doesn't mean that they are always right on their takes. These guys aren't messiahs on the same level as the Prez!

And you aren't the only one with contacts around this place or the govt either!

freightguy

I have to agree with ACL here. Working out of ANC, I can assure you there is a lot more to this rumour.

DAL4EVER

I doubt you see anything happen until after the SOC is completed. After that however, I expect things to get interesting. Alaska would provide us with immediate mainline lift out west with a mature route and hub network. Since we want to expand our western presence and provide feed for western int'l flying this would be a win-win. The same rational used to defend the NWA merger (growing an asian presence on our own would have taken 20 years to do - Alaska would instantly do what would take at least a decade to accomplish) would be used here.

acl65pilot

With this economy, I am sure that anything is possible. Once again there is little to no route overlap. That is a good thing.
Also, and a very important point. If we at DAL are able to not involuntary furlough/layoff anyone in this economic time,( or minimal layoffs) then we hold a lot of credibility to the regulators come time to sell them on this one. (The Sell is already going on FWIW)
I see DAL achieving this. I also know that there is a lot of backwater working being done with this. You will see things start to take shape this time next year.

NuGuy

Heyas,

Agree with ACL. ALK + (DAL + NWA) = almost zero overlap, and what is to be seen as an improvement in service all around.

With the markets the way they are, and consolidation would sure to be seen as a good thing.

This won't even raise an eyebrow at the DOJ. Rubber stamped. Write your checks to the merger committee.

Nu

Justdoinmyjob

OK, granted that this is a possibility and could very easily happen, but it's not going to be a cake walk. Every airline from American to VA is going to be screaming bloody murder over it. It will not be an easy rubber stamp like the last one was.