rickair7777

Nobody at this point can say whether a carrier is going away, in fact GW is looking like NOT going away. There's nothing indicating any definitive major force structure cuts. ASB, Israel talking ground war, armor on the Ukrainian border...methinks we're keeping the CVN's for now.

Long-term uncertainty, sure but they wouldn't cull the herd in this manner based on future unknowns...and they can't and won't use a statutory promotion board to RIF people from certain designators but not others.

Aviation was reasonably represented as far as board membership goes, and the president was actually an NFO...so probably not a malfunction at the board level.

Pilot7576

Does anyone know when the 04 reserve list (for FTS) comes out? I have a dog (my son) in this fight and what I thought would be a shoo-in is looking more and more iffy.

Pilot7576

BDGERJMN

Ok well in true fashion the Bureau and its community managers haven't caught up with reality and a 49/56% screen rate for a URL Community with a known issue for retention within. The numbers don't add up...so perhaps you're right, perhaps the board worked as advertised and the Navy just added insult to injury in Naval Aviation. Example: Of the 45 VFA OP DH slots available on this last DH screen board the Bureau had 27 fills...35 if you do some funky math and 45 if you F with people's timing who are already slated. Yep its working the way its supposed to.

As for your comment regarding GW and USN planning, it is indeed going away and that is what the Navy is planning for absent a change to Sequestration. So yes, the Navy is planning for that and if you think they aren't, think again!

FlyBoyd

It's a crap shoot. Sometimes they move quicker than the AD side but you never know. You can track it here...under release process. If you made me guess, I would say within a month from now.

FY-15

rickair7777

Unlike the URL selection board, the FTS board DOES have a specific quota for each designator. So the competitiveness depends on how many apply for X number of slots. They won't fill 13X5 FTS billets with sub guys. Probably good that he applied this year...after the O4 debacle I suspect there will be more applicants for FTS next year.

rickair7777

[QUOTE=BDGERJMN;1681722]Ok well in true fashion the Bureau and its community managers haven't caught up with reality and a 49/56% screen rate for a URL Community with a known issue for retention within. The numbers don't add up...so perhaps you're right, perhaps the board worked as advertised and the Navy just added insult to injury in Naval Aviation. Example: Of the 45 VFA OP DH slots available on this last DH screen board the Bureau had 27 fills...35 if you do some funky math and 45 if you F with people's timing who are already slated. Yep its working the way its supposed to.

They were planning for decom, and are still ready to do it if needed but it's now looking like the decom defuel will turn into a refuel. I think NCA, Congress, and big navy all sense that now is not the time to send the message that we're pulling back our global reach.

T45Heinous

I think it is a real stretch to think that the Navy and the community managers are reducing the promotion rates of aviators based on the possibility of the GW going away! Those of us in the Navy should realize that the buracracy and staffing involved in making a change like that would only occur after the fact! The Navy is NOT proactive nor are they going to gamble about being short on bodies to man an Airwing. Plus, the GW going away does NOT automatically mean that an Airwing is going with it! That is another political football that hasn't even been mentioned....yet. So let's calm down the "crazy"......
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I think its completely reasonable for an aviator to purposely tank the O-4 board. If you think about it...if they are going to get out anyway, why not leave with the extra cash for getting passed over? Its not illegal... now would I have done that....perhaps not...but maybe, (especially considering that you can pick up O-4 in the Reserves....
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FTS is also broken down into platform specific quotas as well. For instance for a given FTS redesignation board there might be slots for 3 VFA guys, 1 VAW and unlimited P-3 and zero EA-6B....if there are 3 VAW guys trying to go FTS only one is going to be picked up. (the board also considers where their preferred desitination is e.g. TRACOM, FRS, NOSC etc.)

Cookenbauer

I also think E6bpilot made a great point about the 8 year commitment. The decline in percentages don't seem to be a coincidence.

With the 7 year commitment, you could get out at your shore tour. Smaller pot to choose from for roughly the same amount of billets.

However, since the Navy is forcing almost every JO to do a disassociated tour...even if s/he wants out, that pot gets bigger by default since s/he will be in the screening window and the percentages are will naturally look worse.

What doesn't make sense are the big list of guys who were breakout performers that did everything they were supposed to and checked all the right boxes...only to be FOS'd on this list.

rickair7777

The community may have had a hand in this if the community brief either intentionally or unintentionally set too high of a standard.

If the board was briefed that a "good-to-go" aviator would have all EP's for the last five years, a masters, JPME-2, 3+ air medals, and screened for astronaut then that's what the board would use to inform their voting. If the other communities just wanted "warfare pin and no DUIs" that could have skewed the results. I exaggerate, but you get the idea. I don't know if the communities "synchronize" their briefs to ensure an equitable playing field.

e6bpilot

I don't know what happened, and I doubt I ever will. The results of this will be long reaching. By all indications, you have community players left hanging above zone who are going to be skewing next year's IZ results. I predict mass exodus like rats running from a sinking ship if next years results are flat and the economy continues to show demand. The Air Force, believe it or not, is actually on the leading edge of this whole thing and has gotten in front of it and been honest with their people. The Navy keeps throwing stupid bonuses, selling JPME and non flying tours, and shaking hands with one hand and stabbing with the other one. The real struggle comes when our O-5 commanders have to look their people in the eye and ask them to stick around despite all this. I know what my answer would be.