Military and waiting for a call, how long?
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2015
Posts: 217
I've heard quite the opposite to that rumor from a number of folks who know a thing or two about hiring at the majors.
Namely, that a former military guy who goes to a regional is going to be quite desirable to the majors. For reasons that don't make sense to military dudes, showing the willingness to go take the paycut and enter 121 flying at the bottom floor shows a type of dedication that they like (same logic that dictates that it is desirable to have guys chase interview invites at OBAP/WAI/job fairs, etc).
Regarding the "background issues", I've heard it specifically discussed that (depending on the issue, of course) that guys with past military disciplinary issues (DUIs, Art 15s for conduct, even grounded by FEB/FNAEB) can have those partially sidelined by doing good time (ergo, all training passes, perfect attendance, etc) at a regional. That such experience helps cleanse the palate of the undesirable military stuff. Sometimes it even does it in a ridiculously short period of time, like only months of employment at a regional. I also know more than one guy who was flat-out grounded by an FEB in the USAF (one of them got to full meal deal, lost his wings and everything, other one just grounded) who went to a regional and both were subsequently picked up at a major after about a year their regionals. These were about 6 or 7 years ago (prior to that 2006/2007 mini hiring boom), so not data that matches up perfectly with the current environment, but an important datapoint none the less.
Just as an anecdote, I also know of a handful of guys who, upon separating/retiring from Big Blue, decided they could not stomach the paycut (or ego blow?) of flying at a regional, and decided to do overseas contract flying. All the while, their apps were in at the majors (this is the 2010-2014 timeframe) and, despite regular updates, internal recs, etc, they were not getting interview calls. Each of these guys came to their own decision to go dip their toe into the regionals to try something different...and wouldn't ya know it, each of them shortly received interview invites at the majors.
So, there's something to it. I don't know that I understand why the majors see a stint at the regionals (even as short as ONLY having made it through training, and not even yet IOE) can suddenly make old tarnished applications look new and shiny again, but anecdotal evidence seems to indicate that.
Namely, that a former military guy who goes to a regional is going to be quite desirable to the majors. For reasons that don't make sense to military dudes, showing the willingness to go take the paycut and enter 121 flying at the bottom floor shows a type of dedication that they like (same logic that dictates that it is desirable to have guys chase interview invites at OBAP/WAI/job fairs, etc).
Regarding the "background issues", I've heard it specifically discussed that (depending on the issue, of course) that guys with past military disciplinary issues (DUIs, Art 15s for conduct, even grounded by FEB/FNAEB) can have those partially sidelined by doing good time (ergo, all training passes, perfect attendance, etc) at a regional. That such experience helps cleanse the palate of the undesirable military stuff. Sometimes it even does it in a ridiculously short period of time, like only months of employment at a regional. I also know more than one guy who was flat-out grounded by an FEB in the USAF (one of them got to full meal deal, lost his wings and everything, other one just grounded) who went to a regional and both were subsequently picked up at a major after about a year their regionals. These were about 6 or 7 years ago (prior to that 2006/2007 mini hiring boom), so not data that matches up perfectly with the current environment, but an important datapoint none the less.
Just as an anecdote, I also know of a handful of guys who, upon separating/retiring from Big Blue, decided they could not stomach the paycut (or ego blow?) of flying at a regional, and decided to do overseas contract flying. All the while, their apps were in at the majors (this is the 2010-2014 timeframe) and, despite regular updates, internal recs, etc, they were not getting interview calls. Each of these guys came to their own decision to go dip their toe into the regionals to try something different...and wouldn't ya know it, each of them shortly received interview invites at the majors.
So, there's something to it. I don't know that I understand why the majors see a stint at the regionals (even as short as ONLY having made it through training, and not even yet IOE) can suddenly make old tarnished applications look new and shiny again, but anecdotal evidence seems to indicate that.
Yes this has been bouncing around in my brain. To regional or not to regional. I'll give the majors a shot right now...but if I get no bites then i'm going regional ASAP to keep current. I meet the Majors mins, but worried i'm worried they are still taking higher time fighter guys. We'll see. The thought has crossed my mind that if I go Regionals then I'll get "stuck" there. I hope what you said above is true.
#22
China Visa Applicant
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Midfield downwind
Posts: 1,919
Nobody knows what seat they'll be sitting in when the music stops. The objective is to make smart choices about what seats you take, just in case the music stops when you're in a less desirable one.
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2009
Posts: 396
Shouda couda wouda...
Looking back, the best choice would have been to get out as soon as your UPT commitment was up, get hired by a major, finish OE, take mil leave, then go back on AD (better yet, go on full time reserve/guard orders) for an AD retirement, then come back and sit pretty enjoying your seniority. I know of a few bubbas who did this and they could not be happier.
In any case, landing a good airline job takes a lot of planning and a whole lot of luck. I planned mine since I graduated high school and I feel very blessed things worked out.
Looking back, the best choice would have been to get out as soon as your UPT commitment was up, get hired by a major, finish OE, take mil leave, then go back on AD (better yet, go on full time reserve/guard orders) for an AD retirement, then come back and sit pretty enjoying your seniority. I know of a few bubbas who did this and they could not be happier.
In any case, landing a good airline job takes a lot of planning and a whole lot of luck. I planned mine since I graduated high school and I feel very blessed things worked out.
#24
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2009
Posts: 5,186
All it takes is one furlough or bankruptcy during the next 20 years for his path -- with the guaranteed Big Blue retirement check monthly -- to be seen as the better decision.
The "stay until retirement or go as soon as your UPT commitment is up" question has been analyzed and debated a lot on here over the years, especially back in the 2006-2007 timeframe, the last "mini hiring boom."
Ultimately the lifetime income employment numbers come back essentially a wash between the two. Thus, that means that QOL and lifestyle are essentially the primary reasons to choose one career path over another...unless you count the ability to count on that pension check and the peace of mind that gives a lot of folks when the next economic downturn or round of furloughs pops up.
The "stay until retirement or go as soon as your UPT commitment is up" question has been analyzed and debated a lot on here over the years, especially back in the 2006-2007 timeframe, the last "mini hiring boom."
Ultimately the lifetime income employment numbers come back essentially a wash between the two. Thus, that means that QOL and lifestyle are essentially the primary reasons to choose one career path over another...unless you count the ability to count on that pension check and the peace of mind that gives a lot of folks when the next economic downturn or round of furloughs pops up.
#25
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2009
Posts: 396
#27
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2009
Posts: 5,186
None of the entitlements in their current for can survive, it's not mathematically possible.
There are currently around 50M people on welfare. Less than 1% serve in the military, and only around 20% of them ever make it to retirement. If you're a self serving politician (kind of redundant) and you want to get reelected, how many of your constituents are going to vote for the other guy given a choice of cutting one or the other?
From friends in the five sided wind tunnel, there is a new version of this study being circulated, and heavily discussed. Just look at the increased retiree health care costs over the last few years. I'm not saying it's going away, but its going to have to be cut.
http://www.slideshare.net/BrianLucke...irement-system
There are currently around 50M people on welfare. Less than 1% serve in the military, and only around 20% of them ever make it to retirement. If you're a self serving politician (kind of redundant) and you want to get reelected, how many of your constituents are going to vote for the other guy given a choice of cutting one or the other?
From friends in the five sided wind tunnel, there is a new version of this study being circulated, and heavily discussed. Just look at the increased retiree health care costs over the last few years. I'm not saying it's going away, but its going to have to be cut.
According to the OSD Office of the Actuary, annual military retirement
payments are forecasted to increase from $52.2 billion in 2011 to $116.9
billion in 2035. As of today, the total life cycle program costs will grow from
$1.3 trillion, of which only $385 billion is presently funded, to $2.8 trillion by
FY34 (see Appendix D at Tab C). Increases in inflation and life
expectancy will further increase military retirement benefit costs.
payments are forecasted to increase from $52.2 billion in 2011 to $116.9
billion in 2035. As of today, the total life cycle program costs will grow from
$1.3 trillion, of which only $385 billion is presently funded, to $2.8 trillion by
FY34 (see Appendix D at Tab C). Increases in inflation and life
expectancy will further increase military retirement benefit costs.
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2009
Posts: 396
Need I explain? Here's the short version and this is assuming a guy gets out, joins the guard/reserve, and collects a mil retirement at age 60. Most of us have spread sheets to prove my point but it's just simple math in the end.
Active duty retiree: Enters UPT at 21, retires at age 41 w/20 yrs., 24 year career at a major, left seat pay for possibly 14 years (best case scenario but more likely, 10 years in the left seat), retire at age 65 (btw, who wants to retire at 65) assuming everything works out. QOL sucks, pay is ok. Collects retirement right away at around $4,000/mo. (What is 50% of the base pay of an O-5 these days?)
Reserve/guard retiree: Enters UPT at 21, leaves AD at age 29-31., joins the reserves/guard, 34-36 year career at a major, left seat pay for 20+ years, retires at age 65 (again, who wants to retire at 65). Better QOL and the pay catches up at around year 3-4 at the airlines. Potentially make $600-$2,000/mo. or more in the guard/reserves. Collect mil retirement at age 60 or sooner.
Who do you think has more money at age 65, not to mention better QOL and a happier family, assuming everything works out because we all know nothing is perfect.
Active duty retiree: Enters UPT at 21, retires at age 41 w/20 yrs., 24 year career at a major, left seat pay for possibly 14 years (best case scenario but more likely, 10 years in the left seat), retire at age 65 (btw, who wants to retire at 65) assuming everything works out. QOL sucks, pay is ok. Collects retirement right away at around $4,000/mo. (What is 50% of the base pay of an O-5 these days?)
Reserve/guard retiree: Enters UPT at 21, leaves AD at age 29-31., joins the reserves/guard, 34-36 year career at a major, left seat pay for 20+ years, retires at age 65 (again, who wants to retire at 65). Better QOL and the pay catches up at around year 3-4 at the airlines. Potentially make $600-$2,000/mo. or more in the guard/reserves. Collect mil retirement at age 60 or sooner.
Who do you think has more money at age 65, not to mention better QOL and a happier family, assuming everything works out because we all know nothing is perfect.
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2009
Posts: 5,186
Need I explain? Here's the short version and this is assuming a guy gets out, joins the guard/reserve, and collects a mil retirement at age 60. Most of us have spread sheets to prove my point but it's just simple math in the end.
Active duty retiree: Enters UPT at 21, retires at age 41 w/20 yrs., 24 year career at a major, left seat pay for possibly 14 years (best case scenario but more likely, 10 years in the left seat), retire at age 65 (btw, who wants to retire at 65) assuming everything works out. QOL sucks, pay is ok. Collects retirement right away at around $4,000/mo. (What is 50% of the base pay of an O-5 these days?)
Reserve/guard retiree: Enters UPT at 21, leaves AD at age 29-31., joins the reserves/guard, 34-36 year career at a major, left seat pay for 20+ years, retires at age 65 (again, who wants to retire at 65). Better QOL and the pay catches up at around year 3-4 at the airlines. Potentially make $600-$2,000/mo. or more in the guard/reserves. Collect mil retirement at age 60 or sooner.
Who do you think has more money at age 65, not to mention better QOL and a happier family, assuming everything works out because we all know nothing is perfect.
Active duty retiree: Enters UPT at 21, retires at age 41 w/20 yrs., 24 year career at a major, left seat pay for possibly 14 years (best case scenario but more likely, 10 years in the left seat), retire at age 65 (btw, who wants to retire at 65) assuming everything works out. QOL sucks, pay is ok. Collects retirement right away at around $4,000/mo. (What is 50% of the base pay of an O-5 these days?)
Reserve/guard retiree: Enters UPT at 21, leaves AD at age 29-31., joins the reserves/guard, 34-36 year career at a major, left seat pay for 20+ years, retires at age 65 (again, who wants to retire at 65). Better QOL and the pay catches up at around year 3-4 at the airlines. Potentially make $600-$2,000/mo. or more in the guard/reserves. Collect mil retirement at age 60 or sooner.
Who do you think has more money at age 65, not to mention better QOL and a happier family, assuming everything works out because we all know nothing is perfect.
#30
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2009
Posts: 396
One flaw in your argument, I'm exceeding my AD O-4 income on 2nd year pay. I ran a numbers long time ago using your argument and the best case scenario for AD (retire at 20, hired by major, left seat in 8 years vice get out at 11 years, hired by major plus guard/reserve, upgrade in 15 years) was still over a million in total earnings behind by age 60. The military AD retirement is a lot more expensive than people think.
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