ULA
05-15-2016, 09:27 AM
#2
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,269
There were legit reasons related to defense-industrial base support to allow the creation of ULA. But now there appear to be other options.
The big issue here is that the DoD awarded a large long-term contract to ULA just as SpaceX was on the verge of qualifying as a competitive bidder. The justification was cost savings in a bulk buy but there are obvious questions as to whether they should have waited to allow SpaceX to participate, or whether there was collusion to seal the deal in time to exclude them.
But all the hype aside, space launch is a critical capability and SpaceX has not proven that they can do it reliably yet so caution is in order. It's possible that spaceX could put ULA out of the launch business, but then you'd be single-point safe on their system. ULA was intentionally structured to use two independent launch systems (Atlas & Delta)...without ULA, boeing and lockmart would have had to compete against each other and it would not have been sustainable for both so you would have again ended up with only one system.
The inherent problem is critical capability with such a limited market and customer base that you have to ensure that competition doesn't render the business non-sustainable. Tough to manage.
The big issue here is that the DoD awarded a large long-term contract to ULA just as SpaceX was on the verge of qualifying as a competitive bidder. The justification was cost savings in a bulk buy but there are obvious questions as to whether they should have waited to allow SpaceX to participate, or whether there was collusion to seal the deal in time to exclude them.
But all the hype aside, space launch is a critical capability and SpaceX has not proven that they can do it reliably yet so caution is in order. It's possible that spaceX could put ULA out of the launch business, but then you'd be single-point safe on their system. ULA was intentionally structured to use two independent launch systems (Atlas & Delta)...without ULA, boeing and lockmart would have had to compete against each other and it would not have been sustainable for both so you would have again ended up with only one system.
The inherent problem is critical capability with such a limited market and customer base that you have to ensure that competition doesn't render the business non-sustainable. Tough to manage.
