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Pilot shortage fallacy & separating vs retire

Old 07-17-2016, 05:45 AM
  #11  
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Have you even applied? Have you determined an estimated availability date if you do 7day opt? Have you confirmed the flight records section has all your times? I was missing almost 200hrs of flight time. Have your converted your times to PIC/SIC? It can take days translating your military time to PIC/SIC. I know some folks have purchased Log10pro for iPad/home computer and transcribed all of their times into it and then they have a nice logbook and their flight records folder for backup. If you're considering going an airline career now is the time to fill out your resume. Each airline has different methods of calculating your total times and each can be very confusing. Delta and United are easy because they're on the same site just the addendum is different. Once those are complete its much easier to complete the rest (AA, FDX, UPS). The apps are more detailed than getting a security clearance and even more frustrating. Be conservative on your availability until after you opt out. Once you have a separation date go to finance and have them calculate the earliest day you can begin terminal leave. Lots of folks getting unexpected calls. At FDX if you don't update your app at least every 45 days you'll fall out of their search criteria. Every 2 weeks is best, even if it's just something minor. I'm sure others have similar criteria. I met a C17 pilot in Ramstein who was hired in May with a December availability. I met a Randolph IP at my interview who was hired last week who also has a December availability date. If your even considering getting out then you need to fill out your apps because once you do decide to get out and you haven't filled them out then you're already behind. Until you do those you've made the decision to stay in. Last September a buddy was retiring and nervous he hadn't got a call. By April he was within 2 months of terminal leave and he had 1 interview. 1 month later 2 more. The next week another. As the hiring folks at United have said, they have about 10000 applications on file so it will take a while to get through them. Delta also has the same, United, etc. But they all have the same folks on file. For the most part they're all pulling from the same pile of people and collectively they're going through them quickly.

There's no magical fairy dust that will make it an easy decision. Your not the first person to agonize over this decision. Whether you get out now our later you'll be in the same situation. Later, you might have a retirement check which will make the first year pay more bearable. Get out now and get a Line number which will make your quality of life better later. Lots of variables with no easy answer. You need to sit down with your wife and discuss what you can handle together. Uncertainty sucks and causes stress, there's just no way around it.
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Old 07-17-2016, 07:20 AM
  #12  
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Originally Posted by TSRAGR View Post
I'm about 3 months from my chance to 7-day opt and separate from AD AF. I'm also only 5 years from full retirement. I've heard the argument round and round about seniority in the airline business and I understand it's importance.

I've also seen dozens upon dozens of dudes on this forum and others, posting ridiculous qualifications and not hearing a peep. I have a large family and can't afford to not have a job, and a regional won't really pay the bills. On top of that, for some reason, flying reserve jobs are getting much more difficult to find.

Here are my stats:
TT2350
Turbine PIC (all multi) 1900
Military Instructor/Evaluator
Functional check pilot
All fighter time
No derogatory history (2x speeding tix)

I'm avail March of '17, and understand the earliest I'd hear is probably 6 months out, which unfortunately is about the time I'd tell the AF I'm departing.

I know opinions are like @ss....and don't ever take advice from a pilot, but I'm all ears (eyes). I'd love to hear opinions outlining the 'whys'.

thanks
TSRAGR
As others have said- if you haven't already applied to the majors and you're 3 months out from dropping your letter- you're behind.

All the jet guys I know who applied to the majors while current in the last few years had a job waiting for them- but they also had completed applications, attended job fairs and worked the network while in their last years or AD so they had interviews and were hired by the time they were on terminal leave.

Non- jet guys and non current guys have been spending their time at Regionals and ISR contractors for a couple years before getting picked up.

I personally decided if I hit the 13 year mark it was worth it for me to stay in. I left just short of 12 years and have been happier on the outside.

What kind of fighter time? Anything useful to the ISR industry? If so, you'll be able to put some cash away and stay close to the gun club while you wait for the call.

If youre only gunning for the majors and content with the idea that you may only be a Narrow Body captain by time you retire for the second time, stick out the last 5 years flying fighters if you enjoy it enough to tolerate mother blue.
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Old 07-17-2016, 11:02 AM
  #13  
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I don't disagree with anything said here.

A couple of more things to consider...first, are you receptive to a non-flying Guard/Reserve job initially? I couldn't fly in the military but stayed in to get 20 years. That part worked.

Second, with your time, getting picked up by a regional won't be a problem. Many know you're punching your ticket to get on with a major. Yes, the pay is a problem but there are hiring and/or retention bonuses at most which are helping somewhat. If you get into a Guard/Reserve unit, you'll be eligible for Tricare Reserve Select at about $50 per month. That's the latest monthly premium I heard but it is substantially lower than the premiums other employees have to pay. That will help your bottom line.

Third, who's your target carrier for a career? If JetBlue is a possibility, they have a Vets in Blue hiring event. I almost went to one when I got hired at my current employer. If you know someone there, they might be able to help you get into one of those.

Good luck!
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Old 07-17-2016, 12:25 PM
  #14  
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Originally Posted by Slim11 View Post
I don't disagree with anything said here.

A couple of more things to consider...first, are you receptive to a non-flying Guard/Reserve job initially? I couldn't fly in the military but stayed in to get 20 years. That part worked.

Second, with your time, getting picked up by a regional won't be a problem. Many know you're punching your ticket to get on with a major. Yes, the pay is a problem but there are hiring and/or retention bonuses at most which are helping somewhat. If you get into a Guard/Reserve unit, you'll be eligible for Tricare Reserve Select at about $50 per month. That's the latest monthly premium I heard but it is substantially lower than the premiums other employees have to pay. That will help your bottom line.

Third, who's your target carrier for a career? If JetBlue is a possibility, they have a Vets in Blue hiring event. I almost went to one when I got hired at my current employer. If you know someone there, they might be able to help you get into one of those.

Good luck!
If you have to take a non-flying job in the Guard/Reserves, definitely get a regional job to stay current and attractive for the job at a major.

Joe
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Old 07-17-2016, 02:37 PM
  #15  
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Originally Posted by Slim11 View Post
I don't disagree with anything said here.

A couple of more things to consider...first, are you receptive to a non-flying Guard/Reserve job initially? I couldn't fly in the military but stayed in to get 20 years. That part worked.

Second, with your time, getting picked up by a regional won't be a problem. Many know you're punching your ticket to get on with a major. Yes, the pay is a problem but there are hiring and/or retention bonuses at most which are helping somewhat. If you get into a Guard/Reserve unit, you'll be eligible for Tricare Reserve Select at about $50 per month. That's the latest monthly premium I heard but it is substantially lower than the premiums other employees have to pay. That will help your bottom line.

Third, who's your target carrier for a career? If JetBlue is a possibility, they have a Vets in Blue hiring event. I almost went to one when I got hired at my current employer. If you know someone there, they might be able to help you get into one of those.

Good luck!
no, it's ~200/month for a family...still cheap
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Old 07-17-2016, 03:06 PM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by KYTBRD View Post
Have you even applied? Have you determined an estimated availability date if you do 7day opt? Have you confirmed the flight records section has all your times? I was missing almost 200hrs of flight time. Have your converted your times to PIC/SIC? It can take days translating your military time to PIC/SIC. I know some folks have purchased Log10pro for iPad/home computer and transcribed all of their times into it and then they have a nice logbook and their flight records folder for backup. If you're considering going an airline career now is the time to fill out your resume. Each airline has different methods of calculating your total times and each can be very confusing. Delta and United are easy because they're on the same site just the addendum is different. Once those are complete its much easier to complete the rest (AA, FDX, UPS). The apps are more detailed than getting a security clearance and even more frustrating. Be conservative on your availability until after you opt out. Once you have a separation date go to finance and have them calculate the earliest day you can begin terminal leave. Lots of folks getting unexpected calls. At FDX if you don't update your app at least every 45 days you'll fall out of their search criteria. Every 2 weeks is best, even if it's just something minor. I'm sure others have similar criteria. I met a C17 pilot in Ramstein who was hired in May with a December availability. I met a Randolph IP at my interview who was hired last week who also has a December availability date. If your even considering getting out then you need to fill out your apps because once you do decide to get out and you haven't filled them out then you're already behind. Until you do those you've made the decision to stay in. Last September a buddy was retiring and nervous he hadn't got a call. By April he was within 2 months of terminal leave and he had 1 interview. 1 month later 2 more. The next week another. As the hiring folks at United have said, they have about 10000 applications on file so it will take a while to get through them. Delta also has the same, United, etc. But they all have the same folks on file. For the most part they're all pulling from the same pile of people and collectively they're going through them quickly.

There's no magical fairy dust that will make it an easy decision. Your not the first person to agonize over this decision. Whether you get out now our later you'll be in the same situation. Later, you might have a retirement check which will make the first year pay more bearable. Get out now and get a Line number which will make your quality of life better later. Lots of variables with no easy answer. You need to sit down with your wife and discuss what you can handle together. Uncertainty sucks and causes stress, there's just no way around it.
Thanks for the indepth post, and to the others that have commented. Yes, I have apps in. I've applied with all the legacy and one of the cargo carriers. I've done an interview seminar and had my apps professionally reviewed, and I have a few (not many) recs in w/DL and UAL. I've been single-seat my career so luckily no issues w/converting PIC/SIC, but yes I have an updated professional logbook as well. And I'm currently flying (also have a 737 type-thanks gi bill). I'll separate overseas so the job-fair situation won't really work for me.

I'm not opposed to going to a heavy unit/flying a desk/taking an ART job, I just understand my flying time is a below the average and think it would be a poor choice to separate to "fight" for one of the 2000ish openings expected next year across all the majors, if I have a less than average chance at getting picked up.

Although the sarcasm is usually thick on this site, I really appreciate the words, thanks.
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Old 07-17-2016, 03:54 PM
  #17  
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I will share my opinion because it is a little different. I stayed in to retire with 22 years (3200 hours) in a single seat jet. Having that retirement pay made the transition to airline flying so much easier, plus I got to fly the jet for a couple of more years. I would say if you are at 14-15 years, it would be, to me, a no brainier to stay in to retirement. When the hiring slows down, you will be at the top of the heap of applicants for any of the airlines.
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Old 07-17-2016, 04:29 PM
  #18  
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TSRAGR,

A tough call, no doubt. And some great advice here from the other posters.

I have seen three hiring booms in the airlines while I was active duty. First was right after the Gulf War. Lots of my bro's jumped then. Next was the mid/late 90's. Most of the rest left then that didn't in the early 90's. And the third is just cranking up now.

The dudes that left in the late 90's got a beating, but kept their seniority. Most, except one, are back in their airline jobs. Many are in the left seat (save a few, most left seaters are from the early 90's group). Some of the late 90's group went to the guard/reserves to finish out and get enough points to gain retirement, then accepted return offers back to their furloughed airline.

I'm a single seat guy with stats pretty much the same as Cricket. I decided to stay in until about the 22 year point. I retired when there was no hiring going on. Even a good friend, USAF TPS grad and Astronaut, had a hard time getting hired during the lost decade.

For me having the retirement has given me flexibility. It is something that pretty much gets deposited in my account for pretty much the rest of my life - unless something drastic happens, then we are all effed....Thus the reason I can soak up the putrid regional pilot pay and perhaps, someday, first year airline pay. I ended up much like CODS. I had a really good contracting gig post retirement. Now I've decided to give the airlines another go. I'm at a regional now flying CRJ's.

Someone mentioned seniority. You will live and die by it in this business as I am coming to find out. Like it or not, this is not a merit based system. So, the questions I think to ask are: 1)How many dudes/dudettes are you willing to let get in ahead of you on the seniority list at airline X, and 2)Is being a member of the check-of-the-month club worth giving up on question #1.

No one knows what will happen, but as I indicated earlier, that check every month makes the stress level a bit lower (see flexibility).

Best of luck to you, not an easy decision to make. But as others have said, your not the first or the last to be in that position.
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Old 07-17-2016, 05:56 PM
  #19  
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TSRAGR,

I punched with 12 yrs. It was scary having apps in for 6 months and no calls. I decided to try a job fair and got 3 interviews within 2 months (fractional, cargo, major). Once I got within two months of terminal the calls were coming, but I really feel the job fair made a difference (as much as I hated doing it). I also have an ANG job to fall back on. Everyone I know who has punched from AD has gotten cargo/major/legacy. Good luck with your decision!
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Old 07-17-2016, 09:04 PM
  #20  
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It sounds like you are on the right track in terms of prep. I jumped ship at the 12 year point, and had always planned to do so. It was without a doubt, the most stressful time of my life. I put in for seperation with no job at all. Fortunately, I was picked up by my reserve unit 6 weeks later, and picked up by my Last choice major (US Airways/AA) a month before terminal leave.

Prepare your family for a rough year, talk with your wife about this and make sure she is on board. I'm just now recovering (on third year pay) from my first year pay cut ($40/ hour at the time). We cut the budget to the bone, no cable, no Starbucks, etc.

Second, if you do put in your papers, you need a JOB, so don't be picky. Don't be scared of a commute. Military guys seem to be the most vehemently anti commuter that I've met. So take their advice through a filter. I've been double commuting for over two years, but I'm very grateful to have both of these jobs. I am trying to find a local USAFR job, as that is by far the worst of the two for commuting. Unfortunately, it's been a tough nut to crack where I live (and I don't care if I fly a desk). You'll need to take the first airline offer, and then upgrade to a higher choice, if it makes sense later. As time goes by it might not make sense (I've decided to stick it out with AA). You have to take the long view...
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