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Old 07-16-2016, 07:06 PM
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Default Pilot shortage fallacy & separating vs retire

I'm about 3 months from my chance to 7-day opt and separate from AD AF. I'm also only 5 years from full retirement. I've heard the argument round and round about seniority in the airline business and I understand it's importance.

I've also seen dozens upon dozens of dudes on this forum and others, posting ridiculous qualifications and not hearing a peep. I have a large family and can't afford to not have a job, and a regional won't really pay the bills. On top of that, for some reason, flying reserve jobs are getting much more difficult to find.

Here are my stats:
TT2350
Turbine PIC (all multi) 1900
Military Instructor/Evaluator
Functional check pilot
All fighter time
No derogatory history (2x speeding tix)

I'm avail March of '17, and understand the earliest I'd hear is probably 6 months out, which unfortunately is about the time I'd tell the AF I'm departing.

I know opinions are like @ss....and don't ever take advice from a pilot, but I'm all ears (eyes). I'd love to hear opinions outlining the 'whys'.

thanks
TSRAGR
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Old 07-16-2016, 08:13 PM
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I'm in a similar situation, 4 years until retirement with an available date to the airlines in Feb 2017 so I'll be following this thread closely! I already told my commander I'm separating and anxiously looking for a guard/reserve job and literally betting the house on getting picked up by a major airline very shortly after I separate from AD. The 6 month rule to apply for separation is a really tough pill to swallow.

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Old 07-16-2016, 08:24 PM
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Originally Posted by TSRAGR View Post
I'm avail March of '17, and understand the earliest I'd hear is probably 6 months out, which unfortunately is about the time I'd tell the AF I'm departing.

I know opinions are like @ss....and don't ever take advice from a pilot, but I'm all ears (eyes). I'd love to hear opinions outlining the 'whys'.

thanks
TSRAGR
Most of us have been where you are. Obviously, there are no guarantees. You have to decide if the goal is worth some risk and if you can step off the edge.

Recent years and the near future will arguably be the best opportunity to get an airline job over the last 20 years. So, if you're going to roll the dice, this is probably the time to do it.

I think you have two choices:
Stay in, take a reasonably sure thing and postpone your search for a life after until you're in the check of the month club. You give up potential seniority, risk leaving from a desk non-current and entering a stagnant hiring market after the wave. Kids may be approaching college age where thin paychecks may be even less workable than they are now. It's also possible the job market will still be good or you'll have some more flexibility to take a regional job if necessary.

Or - you network like crazy over the next 6 months and get yourself a guard/reserve job. Get yourself that safety net, put your apps out and take the leap. Maybe you're one of those lucky guys that ends up in basic indoc at a major airline while still on terminal leave. If not, you guard bum and do what's necessary in the interim until someone calls you for an interview (and bring your A-game to it - 'cuz it ain't a sure thing).

Either way, I highly recommend doing whatever is necessary to get a military retirement of some flavor. Good luck.

P.S. Maybe things have changed, but I applied for a DOS and heard crickets from the airlines. I got close and pulled my papers putting myself back into the assignment process. It took a few months for that to work through the system and I started hearing from the assignment guys. I re-submitted my papers and established another DOS as far out as they'd let me (short of IPs at the time). I think I got another 9 months which allowed me to line up the guard job and go from there.
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Old 07-16-2016, 11:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Adlerdriver View Post
P.S. Maybe things have changed, but I applied for a DOS and heard crickets from the airlines. I got close and pulled my papers putting myself back into the assignment process. It took a few months for that to work through the system and I started hearing from the assignment guys. I re-submitted my papers and established another DOS as far out as they'd let me (short of IPs at the time). I think I got another 9 months which allowed me to line up the guard job and go from there.
Not excited about this option, but it's on my radar. And with the situation AF has put themselves in WRT fighter cockpits, I'm fairly certain if I stay in, I'll be in a jet of some kind in 5yrs. I've never been fond of gambling and this is a tough one for sure. thanks for the words Adlerdriver.
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Old 07-17-2016, 01:55 AM
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i think you are going to have to take a gamble if you decide to get out, it's not at the point where the airline job is just going to fall in your lap yet...i think it's a good gamble and that the odds are in your favor though.
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Old 07-17-2016, 02:47 AM
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Originally Posted by tunes View Post
it's not at the point where the airline job is just going to fall in your lap yet.
thanks for the words. Not sure the if the above would ever happen, but there are a lot of dudes that would love that!
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Old 07-17-2016, 04:08 AM
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I know 8 people off the top of my head in my unit who've been hired by a major in the past 18 months. There are only a few left with applications out there who haven't got a call yet. I am in a guard tanker unit. My recommendation would be to get a Guard Reserves job and that might mean that you may have to apply to some heavy units. Some of these units have active duty opportunities like temp AGR tours and MPA lines for alert and things like that to pay the bills. A lot of these units are hurting for full-timers because they're all leaving for the airlines. So there is the possibility for temp technician tours and temp AGR tours while you wait for your call. The good thing about getting a Guard Reserve job is that you won't throw 15 years of your life away when it comes to retirement. Most of these units are losing a lot of lieutenant colonel's so in the past where it was very hard to get hired as a major with a guard unit it's not that hard anymore. 5 years is a tough one. I always said if I was around 4 or less I would stay for the retirement any more than that I would take the Gamble and leave. I would not however leave the part-time World until my 20 years so at least I get some sort of pension when I'm sixty years old.

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Old 07-17-2016, 04:37 AM
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Air Force Reserve Command is 75% manned for full time (ART) pilots. If you are current and qualified you have a great chance of getting hired. It's a soft landing as a transition job from active duty if you don't get an airline call. Then you can take your time working your airline options without a 6 month separation leash or looming deployment/non-flying duty. Then the risk is finding a traditional reservist (part time/TR) slot because so many ARTs have left for the airlines and have filled all the TR slots. It can also take 4-6 months to get hired as an ART because, well, it's the guvmint and that's the process.
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Old 07-17-2016, 05:08 AM
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Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Life in the airline world isn't even comparable to AD. The grass is greener, and it's not in the Middle East.
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Old 07-17-2016, 05:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Grumble View Post
Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Life in the airline world isn't even comparable to AD. The grass is greener, and it's not in the Middle East.
Exactly. Just what he said above. I left AD and gambled it all on a shot at a major airline job in 2004 back when the only ones hiring were FDX, SWA, and JB. Didn't work out and I started a new career, which I just walked away from 12 years later, to start at a regional because like others have said, the opportunity to get hired has never been better.

But of course, I stayed in the reserves and still got my reserve retirement, which will be nice to have later on.
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