Albief15

As I look ahead at the looming pilot shortage in the airlines and the problems with military pilot retention, I do not see a silver bullet answer. However, while some people like to talk about their favorite NFL teams or college teams, I gave that up when the NFL decided standing on the flag was acceptable, and a whole town rallied around a guy who raped a coed. So I spend my time thinking “if I were king, what could I do to un-**** this monkey ****ing a football pilot retention has become…”
We all have our hobbies…this is an extension of mine. Please feel free to cut and paste, claim it as your own, and send it up the chain if it actually helps your cause.

First—examine why do pilots get out. First—they get out because their current situation sucks. They don’t fly enough, they deploy too much, and they deal with entirely too much queep and political correctness. We know that, and the press is all over it. I hope we see some relief on all fronts. What’s another reason? The reason is leaving the service current and qualified is not guaranteed. If you want to bail for Delta, you better go when you are current. That staff or school gig may cost you more than time out of the cockpit, it may cost you millions of dollars down the line.

Now—as a captain brought into talk to Gen Myers (then 2 star) and Gen Short (then 1 star) back in USAFE in 1998 about pilot retention, everything old is new again. They made some tweaks, and the Air Force even created a program called Phoenix aviator, which was designed to get a guy flying his last 2-3 years and be marketable. The AF even paid for the ATP and 1st class medical if memory serves me correctly. The Air Force made tacit moves towards the majors to see if they could stem them from pulling so many young pups away, but the airlines weren’t interested because there really wasn’t much incentive to do so. Guys were leaving, and back in the 90s the majors could absorb every single one. So—Phoenix Aviator became an “AF only” program with no industry handshakes. 9/11 changed everything, and gave the active duty 10 to 12 years of reduced manning issues. Guess what? Its back, and its worse than ever.

After helping over 12,000 pilots prepare for interviews at major airlines, trust me when I say the pool is shrinking. Nobody is going to coast into a legacy job, at least for a few more years. You need to bust your ass and be ready to work at it. At the same time, the demographics are changing, and I see a day coming when our business becomes the buggy whip and Blackberry story of the 2020s. We are going to be replaced by new ways of hiring and recruiting.

The problem is the “13,000 pool” of desirable candidates is rumored to really now be at 3000-4000. New pilots will enter those numbers, but not in big enough numbers to offset the 3-5k majors want to hire over the next 2-3 years. How are they going to fix that?

One method under way is the continued lobbying to reduce the flight time required to get a 121 job at the regionals. The R-ATP lowering is their primary goal of the RAA and A4A. They may be successful, or may not. If they are, a return to the regional whipsawing and “C scale” wage structure will return, but not before most legacies have rebounded considerably on their contracts. Additionally, regionals cannot pay what they did in the past and attract new pilots, so some of the downward wage pressure will go away even if they are successful.

More likely, a number of new flow through agreements will occur. For decades, airlines wanted the final call to say if this guy or gal was “Delta material” or “the right fit for Southwest….” At a certain point, it becomes more advantageous for airlines to try to mentor and develop the traits they want, not just hire for them. I suspect we will see more professional development and flow through agreements over the next few years with airline’s regional partners. Delta is loathe to hire some of the streamlined selection process (SSP) pilots from Endeavor, but American is more aggressive about recruiting and advertises their PSA and Envoy pilots have a guaranteed job when they get hired at the regional level. Guess which regionals are having fewer problems attracting pilots?

So about Big Blue, and the Navy as well? The airlines had zero interest in helping them in the 1990s. The situation may be different now. What if we had a 2017 Phoenix Aviator program that looked like this?

Stay in and take the bonus. The bonus may not be as large as currently envisioned, but would be inflation adjusted.

The guarantee by the military would be an A/B option.

Option A was you hit 20 in a flying squadron, current and qualified, just like back in the old PA program.

Option B (you guys taking notes—this is for you) is new. If you need an officer as a ALO, staff officer, or other non flying position, that’s fine. At 19.5 years of service, that pilot checks out and goes back to a UPT base where he is checked out in the T-6, T-1, or C-12 type platform. He/she does an I check, and goes cross country with another pilot (similar to ACE back in the day) and gets 100 turbine hours in their last 6 months of active duty. Their additional duty is getting their medical and ATP.

Would that cost money? You bet. But how much would 100 T-6 hours cost in comparison to having to double or triple the bonus to keep someone? How much harder would it be to train and develop an F-16 IP/SEFE/WIC guy than to guarantee if you use him on staff for his last 6 years he will still have the option to be an airline pilot when it is done? If you wanted to avoid a PCS, you could even have a det (like ACE dets at SAC Bases) at Andrews, Langley, Ramstein, Yokota, etc and avoid any heavy PCS/TDY expenses.

What would that take? It would take someone saying “a guy who gave us 19.5 hours of balls to the wall work deserves 100 hours before we kick him out the door….”

If you guarantee a pilot will be current when he leaves, you take the opportunity cost of staying in the service 9, 7, or 5 more years much lower. You have officers and pilots who want to stay and serve, but want a chance for a second career too. Right now, the ANG and Reserves offer that security and chance to serve. It won’t be cheap, but I’d venture to say the cost is a damn sight less than losing a guy and training his replacement.

With that many qualified guys, I am sure the airline industry would be more amenable to some guaranteed interview and transition programs. ECIC probably won’t be needed—just go to your transition office, fill out the forms, and don’t and don’t say “****” in front of the HR girl and you should be at United or FedEx on terminal leave.

So—go fill out your SSS sheet. Run this up at ACSC or AWC as your class paper. Put me out of business…I dare you. We need a few good guys to hang around and fix this service. I hope the service will consider making a smart investment.

rickair7777

It would be a tough sell to congress, and for good reason. It gives the appearance, at first glance, that DoD is expending significant resources to enable a select few elite servicemembers (officer to boot) to ease right into a lucrative civilian career as they retire.

The big sticking point would be why is the military not spending tens or hundreds of thousands on votech or other career transition assistance for all service members?

Now I get your point that it could be more cost-effective than paying huge bonuses and training three new pilots over a 20-year period, but in this case the timing of the expenditure would not play well with the media and congress.

Maybe such a program could be sold if it was offered in lieu of GI Bill benefits. Maybe. It just has a big perception issue, "appearance of impropriety".

Maybe better just give certain pilots the ability to opt into a guaranteed IP tour for their last year or two.

Albief15

So....a pilot bonus isn't "helping a few elite service members" but this would be even though it would likely be cheaper?

Psst...wanna know what drove a lot of us out? The "we are all equal" bull****. We aren't. Doctors get bonuses. Dentists get bonuses. Pilots get bonuses.

You can ignore that, and talk about an ideal world and how we all have "worth". While you are doing that, our Viper WIC IP just went across the street to fill out his separation request. This is reality.

FYI...yesterday I toured the Bonhomme Richard in port in Hong Kong. Met some damn fine Marines, Sailors, and warriors of all ranks. All have value. All are patriots. I am humbled to be in their company.

Off the ship, however, some of us are worth about $300-400k a year. Not everyone will be offered that kind of gig. If you want to keep pilots on those decks for 20 years, you cannot ignore the math, as "unpleasant" as that may be to some.

Jughead135

Interesting idea Albie. I suspect that money wouldn't be the stumbling point (not directly; obviously, it pretty much all boils down to money eventually!):

Assuming you could get enough horsepower on board to take a hard look at this, the first question might be money; the second, however, will be manpower. If the service is already tight on pilots (by definition, given the topic), how much extra manpower (UPT IPs) will be required / redirected from their primary task to this? I wonder if that hurdle could be met....

Grumble

This is why they scraped "Home Of The Fighter Pilot" off the entrance to Nellis. Why everyone gets to wear a flight suit. Why everyone has a weapons school patch now, and why people are leaving the service in droves.

The social justice warrior/hurt feeling class have found footing in the military, and it's going to cost a lot more than retention at some point.

Arctichicken

Everyone wears wings. Gotta love those gigantic wings that fill the entire patch.
As long as the airlines are hiring, folks are going to bail, period.

rickair7777

I'm not saying it's inherently wrong (it would save money in the final accounting), nor advocating social justice, just that it won't pass political muster.

A guaranteed final IP tour would be politically palatable. Paying O4s and O5s to fly military airplanes for the express purpose of building time for airline requirements will not play well in the Washington Post. I could write the article myself and sell it to the wire services, and it would be on page A2 of every Sunday paper in the country.

The government frequently incurs additional costs simply to avoid the appearance of impropriety...cost of doing government business. Detailed audits of each of our travel claims cost more than the occasional erroneous or fraudulent claim, but it's necessary to prevent allegations of fraud, waste, and abuse from damaging the government's image or triggering onerous regulation from on high.

FlewNavy

Despite advertising a pilot shortage and pushing briefs to flag officers about not having enough aircrew for XYZ mission...whenever I ask a squadron commander if I can fly with them the answer is always the same - "I don't have enough hours in my budget to keep you current - TBNT". So squadrons actually need more flying hours...not aircrew.

There isn't a military pilot shortage if all the flight hours budgeted are being executed. Pilots are leaving the military because they aren't flying enough - and we can't afford more flying.

I'm leaving because the only jobs left for me are staff gigs and frankly I hate being a power point ranger.

limelight

I've talked about this idea with past commanders. Big Blue would give up a
some control but gain loads of it by giving people some hope that they wont run out of gas before the next exit.

Staying past the 10 year commitment is like passing an exit ramp with a really clean Dairy Queen on I-90 in South Dakota with a quarter tank of gas and no map.

Staying on the highway is like driving a '72 Pinto next to a Big Blue peterbuilt driven by an over meth'd and mostly blind trucker. If he decides to ram you off the highway like he did to those 150 or so majors 5 years ago, you'll be left in a wrecked pile with no where to go. Even if 'ol blue is feeling generous and lets you stay on the highway, you may get to an exit ramp, but that exit ramp may not have a Dairy Queen.

At least in this scenario, you'd be guaranteed enough gas to get to a good truck stop. You may get a little road rash along the way, but hey, we'll give you a blizzard and a nice comfort inn when you get there.

Sliceback

Non current at retirement? Any regional will hire them. Three months later they're more qualified with a new type rating, recent 121 training, and recent 121 flying ops, civilian high density ops, etc.

Three months later they'd have 300 hrs. That beats 100 hrs of T-6 time any day.