rickdb

Just looking for some honest opinions. I know it is unpredictable, but some predictions would be great. As negative of a time this is for the airline industry, I think that it is good. It is going to force management to get there head out of their (you know what), and realize that they need to strategically plan to be successful in this industry.

Salukipilot4590

I know a certain airline wont be here....and no its not MESA...

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AirWillie

Regulated with a few missing...

kersplatt

I think there will be a mass exodus of 65 year olds retiring. Prior to the age restriction changed to 65, we were on the verge of a crisis due to a large percentage of pilots ready to retire. I don't think it is the only contributing factor in no one hiring right now but that along with the stagnant economy.

KingAirPIC

Dirigibles.

HercDriver130

I predict hiring to crank up 3-4 years out. The Age 65 ISSUE will have run its course and guys will be retiring.....again. Many of those furloughed this time around will probably not come back to the business.... just my feeling on that. Fewer , larger big carriers... Jet blue and airtran will still have their niche.....

I dont like the following senario either but here it is....but DAL, CAL, UAL...etc...types that survive will concentrate on LONG haul domestic and VERY profitable domestic and International flights... the vast majority of domestic flights and feeds will be flown by National/Jet carriers like SKW, RAH, XJT and whom ever else is left. Predicting who will be around is folly as anyone could stumble and fail. The big boys will have the SKW, RAH's and other jet carriers flying slightly larger aircraft .... flame on if you must, just because we dont like it doesnt mean we shouldnt accept the reality that that is what the big boys want.... the unions need to secure better contracts for the Pilots and FAs to make the reality that for many these are career airlines.

flyguyniner11

completely different than now, just like it is every 5 yrs

ZapBrannigan

Oil prices so high that flying will once again be for the wealthy only. Dramatic drawdown in industry capacity to adjust to this new paradigm.

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HercDriver130

Many wealthy dont fly commercial now ALREADY....

bryris

This could be the beginning of a new golden age. Seriously. It could be sort of like a forest fire right now cleaning out the old vegetation - hell Skybus is gone.

Hiring minimums are going to go back up to previous levels, ticket cost will increase weeding out the pajama bottom travelers, and there won't be SOOOOO many flights all the time. The airspace won't be as crowded, either.

There are too many players out there. You fly to XYZ podunk airport and you see 5 or 6 different carriers there, the crew bus from the hotel is full of pilots and FAs.

I think the oil problem sucks, but this industry needed some cleaning if you ask me. Some will be sacrificed. I am not saying this because I am safe..I am expecting my furlough notice in about 4-6 months.

But, like its been said, once age 65 runs its course, hiring will resume in some capacity. There will ALWAYS be more applicants than there are jobs in this industry. This recent "pilot shortage" was a bunch of crap. Even if there was truth to it, its all evening out now back to reality - a surplus.

Have a back up plan to weather the storm. I know I do....