In all seriousness I am getting concerned with the precedent(s) that have been set in the post 9/11 era. I have only been working in this industry for a few years, and I have only been following the industry since I started flying in 2003. The pre-9/11 era is something I am familiar with since I have been around airplanes since I was born (literally born on an air base). There appears to always be a curve for the industry that everyone is one. I guess before I start into an all-out ramble which will turn into a rant; where do we see the industry moving (in general terms) over the next 5 years?
Here are facts that I will say I "know" by no regard for sourcing.
1. New agreements with regionals involve the regionals purchasing ALL airframes AND all fuel. This used to be a mixed basket on the airframes, but all fuel costs were "daddy's" problem. Reminds me of high school when my parents started making me pay for all my stuff. Makes you learn some responsibility and really shows mgmt skills. We can truly see the companies who lack a real group of managers.
2. 50-seat jets are not getting any newer, in fact many are approaching the end of their life-lines. As far as I know the latest service agreements for 50-seat flying only goes to 2020.
3. Mainline mgmt and the flying public likes the big cabin (duh). Scope at majors are just now starting to put up true fences against the 50+ seat infiltration. I am using the latest mainline deal with DL/NWA pilots and the scope that allows the operational need for 50+ seats, yet sets limits to size as well as number. Unfortunately there is not much (if any at some carriers) financial incentive for the 50% passenger/responsibility increases.
4. Age 65. This hit some regionals, although this is by far a cap at the majors. In 5 years how many folks will be retiring? Will they be able to hold a class 1 til 65? Will the FAA raise the age limit to only require the ability to keep a class 1 every 6 months?
5. New pilots. In 2007-2009 I would dare to say that there are more people training for airline jobs. I don't have a study to reference but with high fuel prices of 2006/2007/2008, the high costs for training (and tight lending standards), and earnings forecast for pilots that are meager compared to the upfront investment I couldn't imagine folks lining up at the door. That being said folks are on furlough (and leaving the industry with a foul taste in the mouth), the economic slowdown causing minimal pay/QOL increases, and a lower demand for pilots. Age 65 comes into play as well in keeping opportunity out of majors, regionals, cfi gigs- the domino effect. The 250 hour wonder and bridge program mentality only works when the spots are open to go from point a-z directly.
6. Int'l model. Open skies? regional ops in other countries? I don't know enough to speculate, but I do know this is that voice in the back of the head that makes me think about the scenarios that would effect all US pilots.
Anyone else have some speculative remarks? To not be "Debbie downer" there is a forecast for airtravel to double over the next 10 years, new/larger planes on order all over the world, and the economic climate will (once again) cause the supply/demand equation to change- just when is the million $$ question!
20 years ago airline pilots were paid almost three times more than they are now and had real benefits, job security and a livable schedule. Project that decreasing trend 20 years into the future and you will have your answer.
Whether or not there is a hiring boom in the future is irrelevant to what the wages, lifestyle and benefits will be. The hey day of the airline pilot is over and those who remain are there for love and glory alone.
Skyhigh
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I agree with Skyhgh. This is a doomed industry, the government realized that decades ago. You can't make money like a normal business. You've got to spend more than you take and hopefully you cause the demise of your competitors.(Mesa) This model wouldn't fly for an ice cream stand let alone a serious business. Add in the fact that being a pilot is a dream job for us therefore most of us would do anything to fly, including under any compensation... It's becoming very evident that management has become very good at exploiting this fact the last several years. I think there will be more jobs but pay will be very low.
Well it's certainly not going to get better, no matter what the economy does. Sure, hiring and movement may resume, but the gradual erosion of the profession will continue. The 'glory days' are in the past, never to return. It's reality.
Like many predict I think the hiring will pick up in the future. Once the economy ascends again, like any business flying will pick up. The only thing is what type of flying will it be? If the majors don't grow and the regionals do that is a net loss of good jobs that are replaced by lower paying ones. Sure there will be more captain slots at the regional level, but those seats are going to be held by those in the right seat right now. If people lower expectations and can accept making a regional a career then the future probably looks pretty good. If your looking for a chance at the major the competition is going to be stiff...
Or go fly bizjet since business should pic up once the economy returns.
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