SpiraMirabilis

And RAH has over 2 billion in debt. Granted they have much more cash which is the important thing.

I bet if Mesa ran an Embraer shop RAH would have bought them. I don't think they want to acquire any more CRJ products.

ToiletDuck

I don't think RAH wants any 50 seat lift as it's a dieing market. With Mesa they could more easily wait for them to go BK then use the Ejets of US Air.

After the F9 and Midwest debt hits your eyeballs will pop out.

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SpiraMirabilis

The way I understood the F9 deal is it is a bankruptcy exit plan, so after the initial payoff there is no more debt (except what F9 has accumulated in operations during bankruptcy.) Debtors seem to be getting about 10 cents on the dollar if RAH's plan is approved.

ToiletDuck

That greatly depends on what's negotiated. RAH could absorb that.

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Bond

Huge misconception! For companies like AA and CAL that have very strong scope language the 50 seat market is alive and kicking as they can't really expand into any other types. They can do props, but there's only so much and so many you can get. A prop can't efficiently fly into most markets in Mexico that both XJT and AE fly into. A prop is not really good for the long thin routes CAL uses the the XR's and some of the LR's on. So again, in absence of scope relaxation at either AA or CAL (and don't expect any!), the 50 seater is as good as it gets.

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ToiletDuck

That doesn't mean it's not a dieing market. It means they don't have any other current options. The 50 seat market is still shrinking drastically.

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Bond

The word is "dying", and as you mentioned because they don't have an option, the 50 seat market for both AA and CAL is not a "dying" breed, but rather a cheaper option than flying a mainline jet on most of those routes.

Thank God for scope at AA and CAL!

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"Midwest Airlines, the latest victim of the present day Lorenzo"

Nevets

Maybe over all, its a shrinking market. But there will always be a market for them just as there will always be a market for 19 and 30 seat turboprops. The point I think he was trying to make is that considering AA and CALs scope (both pilot groups fighting to tighten it even more), 50 seat jets is the only option. This is probably the reason why RAH was even considering EGL and XJT, not to mention that CAL (and maybe to a lesser extent AA compared to the rest of the legacies at least) is a well positioned airline as well.

ToiletDuck

A) I did just realize I misspelled dying. Good call. Long day.

B) Didn't mean it was going away in it's entirety but don't expect any future growth. Only shrinking.

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Bond

It really depends on many variables, and I'm not being "optimistic". CAL is one of those outfits as many of us know that loves to retain market share even during down times, and even if it means running an RJ half empty (instead of 737) as was the case post 9/11. Again, it depends on multiple factors, fuel cost, route structure, market share, and honestly I don't think any of us can predict when a type will go away, we could have more jets flying here in year or we could have less. As Nevets just said, there will always be a market for the 50 seat aircraft, it all just depends.

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"Midwest Airlines, the latest victim of the present day Lorenzo"