Originally Posted by mosquito I heard Colgan is getting the dash 8 flying for UAL.

Originally Posted by brewpilot Second that. Just rumor though

Originally Posted by Rightseat Ballast For the Dash 8 flying, I see four options, starting with the most unlikely, and ending with what I see as the most probable outcome: 1. United contracts with Commutair. Commutair takes over the dash 8's that Mesa was using. 2. United begins a codeshare agreement with RAH to operate Q400's via Lynx. Either RAH paints the new delivery Q400's in UAL colors, or United just flat out code shares with Lynx/Frontier and sells seats on the Q400 flights out of Denver. 3. United contracts with Horizon, who can also provide Q 400's. This would likely lead to a reduction in Dash 8 flying compared to the Mesa schedule, as I don't see Horizon being able to come up with an equal sized fleet of Dashes in that time, plus the Horizon dashes would have twice the capacity meaning less frequency would be required. 4. (most likely) Mesa gets a continuation of their Dash flying at lower reimbursement rates. United saves money, gives double the savings out as bonuses to United managers.

Here are the facts:
(2 separate contracts)

1) 26 CRJ 200's are up for renewal for United. United must notify their intent to cancel by Oct 1. If they do not the contract is renewed until the the "early out" date described in the contract.

2) 10 Dash 8's are at the the aforementioned "early out" date for the Dash 8 contract...if notifacation is not given it goes to the termination notifacation date that are affecting the CRJ 200's.

3) If the CRJ contract is cancelled Management said publically they WILL file for BKnotifacation

4) Nothing said publically about BK due to Dash 8 loss but it is assumed that it is the same.

5) Oct 1 is notifacation...April 1st termination dates.

6) In the CRJ contract there is a clause where 10 200's can be swapped for 10 700's with no other changes other than the 10 700's contract is extended/renewed.

7) Mesa has restructured ALL of its convertible bonds so all debt is now tied up in leases...with contract up leases can be renegotiated. The leasing companies may be willing to lower lease cost on 200's since its either make SOME money or send them to the scrapyard...not even China wants them...

8) United still wants 10 Q400's in DEN, Mesa has the training and Infastructure for that airframe and will take any contract it can get no matter how small.

Here's the strong rumors and a possible curve balls

1) Finacing has been sucured for 10 700's...This brings total number of mesa 200's for united to 16...Total number of 700's is 28...

2) This may be an acceptable 200/700 ratio in order for united to extend the contract. (curve Ball)

3) United still wants 10 Q400's in DEN. SKW wants an all jet fleet and does not have the infastructure set up therefore they want 21 frames to make it worthwhile...

4) Lynx was just notified that BB wants 30 frames on property+ profitabilty or no dice...Lynx has 11 planes not sure on options...may be some Q400's on the market... (curve ball)

5) 10 new 700's will be moved to DEN... ORD and IAD will be reduced in size...



All in All Nobody knows what the hell is going on except for the people hanging out in the Death Star in PHX.

Just wanted to get the facts straight and some of the solid rumors I've heared to stirr the pot.

Originally Posted by meyers9163 I'm just going to throw this out there. October 1st will come and go. Mesa will still fly for UAL. They will be in business and we can all hope they go away but they will not. Mesa will be around and every one is HOPING to gain due to an airlines failure can keep on HOPING. I dont see MESA going any where. I do not work there and work for a place where if they were to file it would help me out. But I do not wish that on their pilot group nor do I see a reason to believe it will happen.

Originally Posted by Purpleanga UA does not guarantee that the CRJ2/Dash8 flying will be replaced but it sounds like they will still cancel the flying. I think people know that Mesa will not go away completely, all they have to do is downsize. Their us airways stuff is still valuable.

Originally Posted by BarbieTrash [b] 3) United still wants 10 Q400's in DEN. SKW wants an all jet fleet and does not have the infastructure set up therefore they want 21 frames to make it worthwhile... .