Based on your numbers, then sometime in 2019, all the furloughs will have replaced the retirees.
If you double the numbers, then we're still sometime in 2014.
I think the original poster's advice is sound, no material movement is going to happen for at least 3-4 years.
if you read his post that is just for just a few airlines. It does not include LOTS of other carriers. And yes it will still be a couple of years, but it is coming.
Based on your numbers, then sometime in 2019, all the furloughs will have replaced the retirees.
Those numbers do not include FedEx, UPS, USAir, Hawaiian, Alaska, Jetblue, Southwest, Airtran....etc. So unless the 65 rule is an exception to those carriers, you can probably double the retirement numbers, or at the very very least increase them by 35%.
I know it's asking a lot but could you list which carriers aren't included in your numbers? Maybe we could get a more comprehensive setup.
On a side note that's a lot of patience
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoHandHold
Those numbers do not include FedEx, UPS, USAir, Hawaiian, Alaska, Jetblue, Southwest, Airtran....etc. So unless the 65 rule is an exception to those carriers, you can probably double the retirement numbers, or at the very very least increase them by 35%.
Yes I've read that but I don't know who etc covers. There could be 20 airlines not on that list. Hard to gather totals without knowing who exactly to ask. Might be able to send out a few PMs and get numbers from people.
The retirement numbers do not appear unrealistic, there are a lot of old guys out there.
However...Kit Darby made a lot of money throwing around similar figures for years. Don't forget to factor in mergers, consolidation, rabid environmentalism, etc.
I can't see UAL or AMR recalling all of their furloughs in the foreseeable future. The prognosis is still uncertain in my book.
And the elephant in the room: Oil. Even if economical Jet A alternatives can be rapidly implemented, the damage to the greater economy caused by sky-high oil prices would kill a lot of demand and growth prospects.
In my mind the future comes down to two questions:
1. How much oil is really left?
2. How quickly can we employ alternative energy sources if we are on the downside of peak oil?
Answer those questions, and you know the future of the airlines.
Yes I've read that but I don't know who etc covers. There could be 20 airlines not on that list. Hard to gather totals without knowing who exactly to ask.
Some of the smaller cargo carriers listed might not be subject to the Age 65 rule. I didnt list regionals either. I am looking at this from the perspective of a regional guy, and some of these carriers might not be a "move up" for a regional guy. But nevertheless....
•Allegiant
•Spirit
•Sun Country
•USA 3000
•Virgin America
•ABX Air
•AirNet
•Ameriflight
•Amerijet
•Arrow
•Astar
•ATI
•Atlas
•Capital
•Centurion
•Empire
•Evergreen
•Flight Express
•Kalitta Air
•Kalitta Charters II
•Lynden
•Mountain Air Cargo
•National
•Polar
•Southern Air
•Tradewinds
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