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Poor Great Lakes :(

Old 08-20-2013, 07:50 AM
  #41  
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Back on subject:

Let's see: Poor Great Lakes is having a hard time staffing flights not even one month into the "ATP rule" and only 2/3 into a year with the lowest (age 65) retirements projected for the next 18 years. What is going to miraculously change their plight? When are the airlines going to stop "poaching their pilots?" I think GL is toast in the next few years.

Retirement numbers (age 65) are available all over this site but as a review there are roughly 19,000 (age 65) retirements scheduled in the next 10 years alone. Think about that. That's about 5 pilots a day, every day for the next 10 years headed out the door. There's another 16,000 (age 65) retirements forecast the 10 years after that. The only measures that will mitigate this train wreck are:

1) MPL replacing the new ATP rule
2) No retirement age

Just my humble opinion.

S.B.
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Old 08-20-2013, 08:22 AM
  #42  
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Originally Posted by Sr. Barco View Post
Back on subject:

Let's see: Poor Great Lakes is having a hard time staffing flights not even one month into the "ATP rule" and only 2/3 into a year with the lowest (age 65) retirements projected for the next 18 years. What is going to miraculously change their plight? When are the airlines going to stop "poaching their pilots?" I think GL is toast in the next few years.

Retirement numbers (age 65) are available all over this site but as a review there are roughly 19,000 (age 65) retirements scheduled in the next 10 years alone. Think about that. That's about 5 pilots a day, every day for the next 10 years headed out the door. There's another 16,000 (age 65) retirements forecast the 10 years after that. The only measures that will mitigate this train wreck are:

1) MPL replacing the new ATP rule
2) No retirement age

Just my humble opinion.

S.B.
Agreed. There is too much money involved for politicians to do the right thing and leave this alone. I look for relief within the next 18 months once cancellations start to really add up at the bottom feeders no one wants to work at anymore now that the hiring playing field is level.
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Old 08-20-2013, 08:37 AM
  #43  
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Originally Posted by DryMotorBoatin View Post
There is too much money involved for politicians to do the right thing and leave this alone.
Bingo.

This problem will march its way up the food chain. It's starting with GLA, will progress to Hulas Kanodia's Flying Circus and on up to Skywest. Finally it will affect the majors and THAT is when the politicians will get involved IMHO.
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Old 08-20-2013, 09:09 AM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by Sr. Barco View Post
Bingo.

This problem will march its way up the food chain. It's starting with GLA, will progress to Hulas Kanodia's Flying Circus and on up to Skywest. Finally it will affect the majors and THAT is when the politicians will get involved IMHO.
The majors will have a deep enough pool to choose from for the forseable future between regional pilots, mil guys, and frac pilots looking for an upgrade. I can see at some point the majors slow or even stop hiring regional guys for a while in order to preserve the feed. I know the military guys are fewer and farther between than in the past, but there may still be enough.

Couple that in with fractional guys. High time pilots who are stuck in the right seat of a bizjet for the rest of their lives. Look at Netjets. 495 on furlough, 60% of the active guys on CA pay, the other 40% are looking at a 12 year upgrade (on top of the 7-10 they've already done). The whole operation screams "mass exodus".
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Old 08-20-2013, 10:04 AM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by frmrdashtrash View Post
The majors will have a deep enough pool to choose from for the forseable future between regional pilots, mil guys, and frac pilots looking for an upgrade. I can see at some point the majors slow or even stop hiring regional guys for a while in order to preserve the feed. I know the military guys are fewer and farther between than in the past, but there may still be enough.

Couple that in with fractional guys. High time pilots who are stuck in the right seat of a bizjet for the rest of their lives. Look at Netjets. 495 on furlough, 60% of the active guys on CA pay, the other 40% are looking at a 12 year upgrade (on top of the 7-10 they've already done). The whole operation screams "mass exodus".
Agreed.

Just for perspective, Net Jets has 3,000 pilots on their seniority list. This is about 18 months of forecast (age 65) retirement attrition. Every single pilot on that list could be hired and there would still be 16,000 more retirements after them in the next 10 years alone.

The bottom line is you cannot retire (under current rules) 2,000 pilots a year indefinitely and expect the industry to remain static. It will be interesting to watch.

S.B.
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Old 08-20-2013, 01:00 PM
  #46  
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Originally Posted by Sr. Barco View Post
Back on subject:

Let's see: Poor Great Lakes is having a hard time staffing flights not even one month into the "ATP rule" and only 2/3 into a year with the lowest (age 65) retirements projected for the next 18 years. What is going to miraculously change their plight? When are the airlines going to stop "poaching their pilots?" I think GL is toast in the next few years.

Retirement numbers (age 65) are available all over this site but as a review there are roughly 19,000 (age 65) retirements scheduled in the next 10 years alone. Think about that. That's about 5 pilots a day, every day for the next 10 years headed out the door. There's another 16,000 (age 65) retirements forecast the 10 years after that. The only measures that will mitigate this train wreck are:

1) MPL replacing the new ATP rule
2) No retirement age

Just my humble opinion.

S.B.
MPL....no please! Increase salaries and improve work conditions and you'll have plenty of applicants to choose from!
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Old 08-20-2013, 02:08 PM
  #47  
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Originally Posted by Sr. Barco View Post
Back on subject:

Let's see: Poor Great Lakes is having a hard time staffing flights not even one month into the "ATP rule" and only 2/3 into a year with the lowest (age 65) retirements projected for the next 18 years. What is going to miraculously change their plight? When are the airlines going to stop "poaching their pilots?" I think GL is toast in the next few years.

Retirement numbers (age 65) are available all over this site but as a review there are roughly 19,000 (age 65) retirements scheduled in the next 10 years alone. Think about that. That's about 5 pilots a day, every day for the next 10 years headed out the door. There's another 16,000 (age 65) retirements forecast the 10 years after that. The only measures that will mitigate this train wreck are:

1) MPL replacing the new ATP rule
2) No retirement age

Just my humble opinion.

S.B.
How do you staff an airline without a mandatory retirement age?
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Old 08-20-2013, 03:17 PM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by johnso29 View Post
How do you staff an airline without a mandatory retirement age?
Well what they'd do is just always run a little, say 10% overstaffed, for when attrition is higher than expected. Muahahahaha. Thanks folks. I'm here all night. Don't forget to tip your waitresses.
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Old 08-20-2013, 04:57 PM
  #49  
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Originally Posted by BaronRouge380 View Post
MPL....no please! Increase salaries and improve work conditions and you'll have plenty of applicants to choose from!


What's cheaper?
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Old 08-20-2013, 06:10 PM
  #50  
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Originally Posted by NormalAbnormal View Post
The $138M is total revenue. Their profits are less than $1.5M.
Nevermind...they're *********!
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