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The Broken "Promise"

Old 04-15-2014, 10:47 AM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by Ultralight View Post
I blame the flight schools for this "promise" to a certain extent. They are the ones that have been ramming the pilot shortage down our throats, insinuating that 20 year FedEx Captain pay is just around the corner, and of course flaunting the magnificent E170 gliding through the clouds on their web page. But why wouldn't they? They're a for profit business.
However, by the time most of us have signed up for this fantastic opportunity and realize its all B.S. its too late.

Time and energy should also be spent on educating those who are reading the glossy brochure about the reality of the job.

"The truth about the profession" web site does an excellent job of this and kudos to the guy who took the time to build that. Good job.
You are correct.
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Old 04-15-2014, 10:50 AM
  #12  
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Perhaps the OP made a poor choice of words, but his message is right on. Maybe the broken "model" fits better with what he's saying, but less dramatic. The current regional model, outsourcing close to half of domestic flying with cheap labor, has worked as long as regional pilots believe in that dangling carrot of a major job was just about in reach. But that regional model has been broken by the stagnation of age 65 and economic recession. The message finally registered with future aviators that the risks of this career outweigh the rewards and the pipeline is drying up. I think the OP's overall point is to join Stop the Whipsaw to help change the whole regional industry. It's hard to measure what effect STW has had so far, but I would guess it's pretty significant with XJT, Eagle, and RAH standing up in unison with resounding no votes. We've got the leverage now, and I think most regional guys realize that, no thanks to PSA of course.
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Old 04-15-2014, 11:02 AM
  #13  
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Long story short, I do understand the perspective of the original poster. However, with the rapid growth of the internet, I also do understand the "quit complaining" mentality.

I think the legal term for this is "puffery." Not illegal, but not necessarily kosher to me. The program I went to and later instructed for wasn't a terrible offender, but I think they should have been more honest. Myself and another insructor pushed for more realistic cost estimates and job outlooks on the school advertisements. We got a bit of resistance and blowback suffice it to say. As one small example, a prospective student asked me what a flight instructor makes. I told them an honest range of income-from 10 to 20k a year on average. This was overheard by management, and I was chastised for "scaring away business."

On a related note, it is not just aviation students who are feeling over-promised by their schools;

Law Schools Sued for Misleading Applicants About Job Prospects

Law school grads suing alma maters for overhyping post-grad employment guarantees | Red Alert Politics
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Old 04-15-2014, 11:32 AM
  #14  
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Originally Posted by planediveguy View Post
Most, if not all of us, at least in the beginning, relied on the following:

Go to flight school ( anywhere ) spend the $$$, get the required certificates, get hired as a CFI and accumulate enough time in order to qualify for an interview and possible ENTRY LEVEL job at one of the FFD "Regional airlines". We would accept substandard pay for the first, second and perhaps even a third year, when we would upgrade to the left seat and get a slight better pay, but now as a Captain we would accumulate those golden "1000 PIC" time. That was the ticket to the real Job at a "Major" airline and a pilot career.

That "promise" ( not really promised, more like a wish actually ) was broken with the crash of the economy in 2008 and the age 65 rule. Regional airlines relied on the system above to keep most of the pilot roster in the low longevity and first third of their pay scale. The costs were known and they made $$$$ on the backs of us that put up with the low pay, believing bigger and better things were just around the corner.

Age 65 put a stop to that flow and stagnated the system. Together with the downside of the economy, the Majors stopped hiring. And if you were hired at a Regional in the wrong time, you were stuck as an FO. There was a reason why the pay scales for FOs did not go further than 4 to 5 years...

Banks realized quickly that student loans would not be paid, as the math would not add up, many of us got into default. And the private loans dried up. With greedy flight schools tripling their costs when the going was good, the costs became prohibitive and without loans, the pool of enrollees for the programs dried up. The majority of flight students are now from Ab-initio programs for foreign carriers from India and China.

It is true that there are many pilots working abroad, and theoretically they would return to this country, if they can get hired at a Major and the conditions are right. The Major airlines have a large pool of regional pilots, from SkyWest to XJT, RAH, Eagle ( you guys will be always Eagle, don't care what mgmt. says )and many others... there are roughly 15000 qualified regional pilots and the majority would not think twice to jump into a Major. The Majors will retire over 16000 pilots by the end of 2024...

That said, in many Regional airlines, there are those that are in a comfortable position. They have seniority, their pay is acceptable, they might be check airmen, their schedules are good and they have too many financial obligations that moving from a 6 figure income to 40 bucks an hour might be too hard to do. Some of them are also in their 50's and they cannot fathom the idea of starting over again. They have a much harder decision to do than young CA and FOs (any age FOs)...!

With the recent NO! votes from RAH, Eagle and XJT, it is clear to management that their SCAM will no longer hold. They sat for too long and milked this system with too much greed. Pilots are tired of working for substandard wages and are now realizing that they can abandon the career all together if needed. The system is broken and does not work.

There are a lot of rumors, from Majors bringing the flying back in house, which makes sense in some ways and is the wish of many of us, to consolidation and shrinking of the regional airlines. What will happen remains to be seen.

I would ask all regional pilots to join the Facebook group - STOP THE WHIPSAW - it allows for communication between all of us and discussion on the situation of our companies.

I sincerely hope things will get better and we all get some of the respect this profession had in the US, as abroad, pilots are still treated with respect.

good luck to all and please, stay professional.
Unfortunately, the true error is the inability or refusal to learn from the past or simply ignoring it. All those "promises" have been going on for decades and for many failed to materialize then too. 1970's fuel embargos, 1980's recessions, 1990's gulf war and 9/11 all were contributors or outright triggers of the cyclical nature of this industry turning pie-eyed young pilots dreams of effortless paths up the pilot career path with few hiccups.

Ahh, if only dreams always came true. But that is why it is important for pilots not to sell themselves short at the entry level. Their stay at that level may be far, far longer then they hoped or planned and it's a bad place to find yourself at after you've committed 10-15 years and the critical period of your professional existence. There are many worrisome situations that might put the next economic down cycle in play and this time before a boom has even taken place. From the "shadow improvement" of our present economic situation, to multiple unstable Mideast situations like Syria and Iran and the threat of Russia invading Ukraine, they all could tip over this already questionable economy back into a down cycle. That's when the airlines are the first to feel pain and employers in general pull back and act conservatively.

Everyone should be especially careful where they're willing to crap nowadays. After all, the thought you can get away from the pile before you have to really smell it may be another promise that you made to yourself that also won't come true.
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Old 04-15-2014, 01:23 PM
  #15  
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I don't think anyone was promised anything. Except for riddle grads
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Old 04-15-2014, 01:38 PM
  #16  
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No guarantees in any career, nobody owes you sh#$, get over it. If you don't like it, quit. Life is too short for whining. You would need way more than 1000 TPIC to get hired at a major before the freak accident that was the mid 2000's and that would lead to 5 plus years sitting sideways. It's simple, if you want to make more than sub standard wages, do something else.
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Old 04-15-2014, 02:06 PM
  #17  
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Originally Posted by CPTmoo View Post
I have to say anything larger than 50 seat airplane should be flown by Major not FFD airlines... Reality No..
I agree but reality is majors gave up scope for greed. Should have had a better system for furloughed mainline pilots to go to regionals rather then on the street. I guess it was easier to blame those with little or no power for taking jobs away from mainline then to face those that have the ability to keep jobs where they should be.
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Old 04-15-2014, 03:13 PM
  #18  
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Originally Posted by Pielut View Post
No guarantees in any career, nobody owes you sh#$, get over it. If you don't like it, quit. Life is too short for whining. You would need way more than 1000 TPIC to get hired at a major before the freak accident that was the mid 2000's and that would lead to 5 plus years sitting sideways. It's simple, if you want to make more than sub standard wages, do something else.
The "suck it up" mentality is exactly why we are here today. So long as there is a large segment of the pilot population who feels they only deserves scraps, that is all they will get, and will subsequently drag down the rest of the industry. Thankfully, the unity campaigns and Facebook networking have been effective, and bam, bam, bam, Expressjet, Eagle, and Republic all voted against substandard contracts. This likely would not have occurred 5 years ago, but because of the open communication available today, those three pilot groups were able to build on each others' courage and stand up for their own worth. This can only lift all pilot groups, so anyone who looks down their noses at these pilots, thinking their concerns are beneath them, is shortsighted indeed.
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Old 04-15-2014, 03:15 PM
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Originally Posted by planediveguy View Post
Most, if not all of us, at least in the beginning, relied on the following:

Go to flight school ( anywhere ) spend the $$$, get the required certificates, get hired as a CFI and accumulate enough time in order to qualify for an interview and possible ENTRY LEVEL job at one of the FFD "Regional airlines". We would accept substandard pay for the first, second and perhaps even a third year, when we would upgrade to the left seat and get a slight better pay, but now as a Captain we would accumulate those golden "1000 PIC" time. That was the ticket to the real Job at a "Major" airline and a pilot career.

That "promise" ( not really promised, more like a wish actually ) was broken with the crash of the economy in 2008 and the age 65 rule. Regional airlines relied on the system above to keep most of the pilot roster in the low longevity and first third of their pay scale. The costs were known and they made $$$$ on the backs of us that put up with the low pay, believing bigger and better things were just around the corner.

Age 65 put a stop to that flow and stagnated the system. Together with the downside of the economy, the Majors stopped hiring. And if you were hired at a Regional in the wrong time, you were stuck as an FO. There was a reason why the pay scales for FOs did not go further than 4 to 5 years...

Banks realized quickly that student loans would not be paid, as the math would not add up, many of us got into default. And the private loans dried up. With greedy flight schools tripling their costs when the going was good, the costs became prohibitive and without loans, the pool of enrollees for the programs dried up. The majority of flight students are now from Ab-initio programs for foreign carriers from India and China.

It is true that there are many pilots working abroad, and theoretically they would return to this country, if they can get hired at a Major and the conditions are right. The Major airlines have a large pool of regional pilots, from SkyWest to XJT, RAH, Eagle ( you guys will be always Eagle, don't care what mgmt. says )and many others... there are roughly 15000 qualified regional pilots and the majority would not think twice to jump into a Major. The Majors will retire over 16000 pilots by the end of 2024...

That said, in many Regional airlines, there are those that are in a comfortable position. They have seniority, their pay is acceptable, they might be check airmen, their schedules are good and they have too many financial obligations that moving from a 6 figure income to 40 bucks an hour might be too hard to do. Some of them are also in their 50's and they cannot fathom the idea of starting over again. They have a much harder decision to do than young CA and FOs (any age FOs)...!

With the recent NO! votes from RAH, Eagle and XJT, it is clear to management that their SCAM will no longer hold. They sat for too long and milked this system with too much greed. Pilots are tired of working for substandard wages and are now realizing that they can abandon the career all together if needed. The system is broken and does not work.

There are a lot of rumors, from Majors bringing the flying back in house, which makes sense in some ways and is the wish of many of us, to consolidation and shrinking of the regional airlines. What will happen remains to be seen.

I would ask all regional pilots to join the Facebook group - STOP THE WHIPSAW - it allows for communication between all of us and discussion on the situation of our companies.

I sincerely hope things will get better and we all get some of the respect this profession had in the US, as abroad, pilots are still treated with respect.

good luck to all and please, stay professional.
Really, it was the LCC revolution following deregulation that hurt this profession. Scope relief, bankruptcy, pension termination leading to age 65, pay cuts, etc, were the result of it. Most of the legacies returned to profitability in 2008 because the economic crisis did two things; Lower the cost of fuel temporarily, and change the spending habits of people to spend on travel, rather than big ticket items they could no longer finance.


P.S. We tried to end the whipsaw at Pinnacle/Mesaba/Colgan, Not only did we fail spectacularly, we became the whip.
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Old 04-15-2014, 04:48 PM
  #20  
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Oh I apologize to those that think I am complaining... my original intent of this post was to show anyone new trying to get into this mess to realize whats going on now and why... sure nothing is guaranteed but death and taxes. Thanks for the input, from all of you. And Stop The Whipsaw is not managed by me, I am just one of the members...just trying to help
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