Will the Regionals be around in 10 years?
08-02-2015, 04:33 AM
#12
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2014
Posts: 2,137
Originally Posted by Flightcap
Doesn't that argument miss the fact that new pilots will be trained up during the next decade to replace current regional pilots? I get that perhaps not enough new pilots will be there to replace all the regional pilots that will be needed, but you can't just assume that regionals will disappear based on mainline retirements.
08-02-2015, 06:17 AM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2014
Position: Semi-Retired...
Posts: 3,127
Originally Posted by FirstClass
There is not enough pilots in the training pipeline that would take the place of today's regional pilots. Maybe that could change in the future, but Millennials simply are not interested in the career. Today's millennial has different priorities when it comes to career expectations. This problem is not unique to just the airlines, corporations all over the country and trying to figure out just what it is that millennials want. It seems its more about lifestyle and 'making a difference' then money for them.
The most recent UND study of people entering the profession listed the top three concerns. They are focused on pay structure primarily. Their second focus was quality of life and how the employer treats their workers, and then came flow and career advancement programs. There were other criteria listed, but those were the dominant three per their study.
Your opinion is not supported by recent research in our field.
They aren't enering the profession because they want to go make a difference; they are chooing other professions because the cost/benefit to this profession is no longer there.
08-02-2015, 09:04 AM
#14
Banned
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Dec 2014
Posts: 50
I think they will be a lot smaller than they are now. Between American, Alaska, Delta, United, Southwest, jetBlue, FedEx, and UPS, 37,250 pilots will retire between 2015-2029. They will also receive a lot of new aircraft between today and 2029, which means that between those airlines, they will be hiring nearly 40,000 pilots between 2015 and 2029. It's going to be interesting to see how the regionals react to this.
08-02-2015, 09:07 AM
#15
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 2,146
Originally Posted by Cujo665
The most recent UND study of people entering the profession listed the top three concerns. They are focused on pay structure primarily. Their second focus was quality of life and how the employer treats their workers, and then came flow and career advancement programs. There were other criteria listed, but those were the dominant three per their study.
Your opinion is not supported by recent research in our field.
They aren't enering the profession because they want to go make a difference; they are chooing other professions because the cost/benefit to this profession is no longer there.
Your opinion is not supported by recent research in our field.
They aren't enering the profession because they want to go make a difference; they are chooing other professions because the cost/benefit to this profession is no longer there.
UND sends that poll out like literally every semester I was there. From Lovelace right? That data changes a lot and it's sent to everyone and not just people just shy of ATP mins but kids in 102 as well when they have no idea about anything in the industry. So much info from professors who haven't been in the industry for years is being passed along to them.
Source. Left UND this last spring.
Regionals won't completely disappear but I can see a pre 9/11 size industry. Short hops again, not these 2+ hours legs in a 200.
08-02-2015, 10:09 AM
#16
Line Holder
Joined APC: May 2014
Position: CFI
Posts: 93
Originally Posted by prex8390
Regionals won't completely disappear but I can see a pre 9/11 size industry. Short hops again, not these 2+ hours legs in a 200.
There will always be a need for >50 seat airplanes (likely turbo props) serving small outstations. The mainline will not want to handle that flying in house. However, in 10 years I see a lot of the flying done by the CRJ-9s and E170s to be done back under the mainline certificate.
There are nowhere near enough new pilots entering the pipeline to meet the forecast attrition at the regionals. 10 years from now, all the current regional pilots will have had the opportunity to move to the majors. Some will chose to stay put, but 75% will have moved up.
08-02-2015, 11:51 AM
#17
:-)
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,339
Regionals will not go away unless mainline pilots make them go away. Airlines will simply have to fly bigger aircraft to deal with the pilot shortage. On top of that, airlines are working hard on making regionals future zero to hero programs. This is all okay with ALPA.
08-02-2015, 04:24 PM
#18
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2014
Posts: 2,137
Originally Posted by Cujo665
The most recent UND study of people entering the profession listed the top three concerns. They are focused on pay structure primarily. Their second focus was quality of life and how the employer treats their workers, and then came flow and career advancement programs. There were other criteria listed, but those were the dominant three per their study.
Your opinion is not supported by recent research in our field.
They aren't enering the profession because they want to go make a difference; they are chooing other professions because the cost/benefit to this profession is no longer there.
Your opinion is not supported by recent research in our field.
They aren't enering the profession because they want to go make a difference; they are chooing other professions because the cost/benefit to this profession is no longer there.
08-02-2015, 06:04 PM
#19
Layover Master
Joined APC: Jan 2013
Position: Seated
Posts: 4,310
A lot of you are missing the point. Just because there will always be a need for smaller airplanes and small city destinations does NOT mean there will be a need for a regional airline.
Instead of a contracted regional partner, the legacies can have RJs, turboprops, smaller airplanes in their own fleet. One interview, one career job.
That's the way I hope to see it go in the future. There will not be a need for a third party contracted feed.
Instead of a contracted regional partner, the legacies can have RJs, turboprops, smaller airplanes in their own fleet. One interview, one career job.
That's the way I hope to see it go in the future. There will not be a need for a third party contracted feed.
08-02-2015, 06:44 PM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2010
Position: Baja Vermont
Posts: 5,177
Potato Chip,
For that to happen, the ALPA MECs will have to negotiate contracts with something like regional pay scales because there is little chance for operating RJs at mainline costs.
Mind you, I'd like to see it all on mainline, bu, face it, regionals are the replacement for the failed B scale experiment of the '89s.
GF
For that to happen, the ALPA MECs will have to negotiate contracts with something like regional pay scales because there is little chance for operating RJs at mainline costs.
Mind you, I'd like to see it all on mainline, bu, face it, regionals are the replacement for the failed B scale experiment of the '89s.
GF
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
