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What's happening at Horizon and Jets?

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Old 12-01-2015, 10:59 AM
  #141  
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If horizon dies with no one to replace the flying, how could losing 40% of your feed not negatively affect stock price?
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Old 12-01-2015, 11:28 AM
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Originally Posted by snackysmores View Post
If horizon dies with no one to replace the flying, how could losing 40% of your feed not negatively affect stock price?
I'm not understanding how we're irreplaceable.
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Old 12-01-2015, 11:38 AM
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Originally Posted by pete2800 View Post
I'm not understanding how we're irreplaceable.
Who could replace us? Skywest can hardly staff their own flying. Compass flies for Delta. Who else is out there on the west coast? Pen Air? They have like 2 planes lol. Who is going to fly 53 Q400s, or fly an E175 from SEA to Wenatchee and expect to make money?
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Old 12-01-2015, 12:11 PM
  #144  
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The problem is it will not need to be replaced all at once. It will be a slow bleed as guys jump ship. Unfortunately would not be that hard to replace. SKW has grown by 500 pilots in the last 18 months. While getting the jets at SKW does nothing but benefit me, I hope for you guys that's not the way it goes down.
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Old 12-01-2015, 12:56 PM
  #145  
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Originally Posted by snackysmores View Post
And then the place burns down. TBH there's better options than OO, Compass just got a nice bump and will probably get more jets as Delta prepares to kick Alaska out of Seattle, just like how Southwest kicked Alaska out of California.

So what's it going to be Brad? Are you going to F your employees, your customers, your stock price, and reputation just save a couple bucks if any?

Compass get more Delta jets???? Delta is "scoped" out. Unless Republic or some one else losses jets i guess....
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Old 12-01-2015, 01:10 PM
  #146  
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Originally Posted by amcnd View Post
Compass get more Delta jets???? Delta is "scoped" out. Unless Republic or some one else losses jets i guess....
Why is CPZ still hiring then? Aren't you guys fully staffed?
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Old 12-01-2015, 01:13 PM
  #147  
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Originally Posted by snackysmores View Post
Who could replace us? Skywest can hardly staff their own flying. Compass flies for Delta. Who else is out there on the west coast? Pen Air? They have like 2 planes lol. Who is going to fly 53 Q400s, or fly an E175 from SEA to Wenatchee and expect to make money?
Skywest is way over staffed on the 175. As far as Alaska is concerned people from Wenatchee could drive to SEA or Spokane and even then like Pere said it could be a small drawdown over time just serving the city lies that require a Q which isn't very many these days.
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Old 12-01-2015, 03:14 PM
  #148  
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Originally Posted by pete2800 View Post
I'm not understanding how we're irreplaceable.
Costs are relatively low since ticket prices have not quickly adjusted to dropping fuel costs, but competition is high. AAG would have less to lose spending money on labor than upsetting customers. I think snacky has a point that going cheap on Horizon and causing staffing issues a la Republic could present a big risk to losing their customer base.

No question about it - Horizon is replaceable just like every regional airline. However, if AAG wanted to do that they would want it to happen on their terms, not ours. If Horizon’s attrition rate exceeds their ability to hire, that will absolutely be bad news for AAG stock and customer loyalty. There’s no way could they seamlessly fill Horizon flying with Skywest flying without damage being done.
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Old 12-01-2015, 09:34 PM
  #149  
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Originally Posted by word302 View Post
The problem is it will not need to be replaced all at once. It will be a slow bleed as guys jump ship. Unfortunately would not be that hard to replace. SKW has grown by 500 pilots in the last 18 months. While getting the jets at SKW does nothing but benefit me, I hope for you guys that's not the way it goes down.
Given the timing of parking the first 15 Q's (which isn't until early 2017), and the jet flying supposedly being announced some time in Q1 of 2016, Alaska would have to keep the current QX fleet and schedule staffed for almost a year (including the summer and holiday flying), with zero new hires, probably 50% of their pilots jumping ship, and most of the remaining pilots being ****ed off at management and refusing to help cover the shortfall by picking any extra flying up.

I don't have an MBA, but I'm guessing that an airline having months of cancelled flights because their regional feed completely collapsed probably doesn't do good things for the stock price.
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Old 12-02-2015, 10:30 PM
  #150  
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I'd like to think that, but if AG decides to torpedo us, this ship won't suddenly capsize, it'll slowly settle before it slips beneath the waves.
While we'll all be abandoning ship, it will still be a ship before sinking, and most people will stay until they have a solid place to land. That won't happen overnight, especially with all our lifers.
So, I don't think that massive schedule disruptions are likely. As B.T. said when he fired all the AS rampers: "It's just business." As immoral as that is...
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