gloopy

By "next round" you're probably right, as AA/US will probably be busy and maybe DL/AS and/or HI. I suspect there will be more consolidation before JB is in play, but I wouldn't expect their independance to last too much longer.

I still think AA, with or without US, will absolutely need more capacity and slots in JFK. Without fixing that major issue they will never be able to compete with DL or UA in arguably the most important market. I can't see them not doing something about it fairly soon (within a few years but probably sooner).

SW is done diddling around with ISP and fake little niche NYC markets and is ready to be a player. And they will have to be. Biggest domestic airline yet they have only a joke of a token presence in the biggest domestic market. While I'm sure they would prefer LGA, there's no way for them to get much more other than to get it from DL or AA. Not likely.

While JFK is arguably less desirable than LGA, its infinitely better than nothing even for so called LCC domestic. Its really the only realistic choice SW has to become a major player in NYC. But wait, doesn't the Port Authority say that SWF is also a NYC airport?

So SW can get JFK capacity from DL, AA or JB. That's it. Maybe, and this is a very outside maybe, they can get UA to give them all of their JFK presence in exchange for their EWR slots but that would be harder to get aprooval for not to mention even that wouldn't give them enough of a footprint to be a serious contender like they need to be.

SW needs more NYC and they ain't going to grow into it "organically". They need to get it from someone and they ain't getting it from DL, UA or AA outside of a very unlikely Ch.7 and there's no one else to get it from...unless they buy all or part of JB.

Getting back to the SLI, I don't think JB would be stapled. I think they would either be fragmented and not taken or, if they got in front of an arbitrator, they very well may end up absolutely destroying whoever they merged with. A ratio/relative integration with a very young pilot group like that, regardless of fences, would likely be the biggest seniority windfall outside of bankruptcy we've ever seen. AA and SW are notorious for being extremely harsh in mergers WRT SLI's. If either one smelled genuine leverage from the individual conract situation and/or the much ballyhooed "federal merger law" I would be shocked if either (or both) didn't structure the event to fall outside of that possibility, and I see the pilots and management cooperating fully together to make that happen.

Or maybe APA/SWAPA/USAPA would be hunky dory with a 1-3 year pilot sliding in with 15-20 year pilot and a 10 year pilot topping their list. Maybe. But I doubt they would be willing to risk it in this day and age of relative ratio integrations once it gets that far in the process.

forgot to bid

I think that all has merit.

And to the point about JFK, UCAL owns EWR but EWR is EWR. AA and DAL have to shoehorn LGA and JFK to do what UCAL can do but considering the O&D market in NYC it works. It's just not as ideal as say JFK sitting where LGA does.

LGA has been full since it opened, which is why they built JFK in the 40s. If JFK was all that great for domestic operations, why was it just hanging there for JetBlue to pick in 1999 but LGA wasn't?

I think it's because it wasn't where you wanted to put a domestic airline. But you could make it work if you offered ticket prices cheaper than the cab ride to the airport and did a little populism meets technology schtick.

But that doesn't make you attractive to someone who is going to change that schtick. Which for the diehard JB fans and those who don't want to merge with JB, that's a good thing. Virgin SFO on the other hand might make a good combo with a Virgin Atlantic codeshare.

gloopy

LGA was and is full. I still can't believe Clinton tried to "stimulate" air travel by allowing a slot-free RJ free for all. That sure worked out well.

Anyway gotta give JB credit WRT JFK. The whole industry shunned it and it was a sleepy little airport way out in the swamp other than an insane afternoon/evening push where the entire world thought it was a good idea to leave at the exact same time. DL really thought pax would be cool with flying into LGA, cabing it at their own expense, waiting in line again and going through security again, to fly out of JFK internationally.

But honestly DL and the entire industry was wrong about JFK. While LGA may be a bit better for some, for millions of others JFK is actually better and even when LGA is preferred for most the difference is negligible. NYC needs the capacity at both and so now both are full and will remain so. That's the point here. SWA wants and needs in NYC and AA really needs a lot more JFK. If their pilots don't cave on scope and allow an "unlimited JB code share" then they will buy JB, all or in part. They have no other choice. Regardless of what happens there, SWA needs to go big into the big apple and will make a move before too much longer. I'd immagine they'd like to split it with AA but they'd take it all if they had to.

Sure from a wholistic culture sociology standpoint, that would be a good fit. So was Frontier with JB and that didn't happen. If JB and VX did get together, their order books combined would be huge. I see that factoring into it as well. No one else in the industry wants that. And even if JB merged with VX, right now that does nothing to prevent them from being gobbled up. All VX would do is add more west coast feed that AA and DL would need if the other (or less likely, SW) went after AS.

It could even result in an earlier move where someone goes straight for VX but I'd bet its more of a reactionary move than a proactive one.

Speaking of VX, imagine how posh that SLI would be. Here's a 3 year guy that will be sliding in with your 25+ year guys...LOL!

Flyby1206

DEN is way overcrowded with UAL/SWA/F9 and doesnt have nearly the passenger base that SFO does.



Ding ding!

1Seat 1Engine

Disclaimer: I never thought SWA would buy AT until I heard it on HLN.

BUT, my impression is that SWA management is currently swamped getting it's current integration together. IMO they won't leap off that cliff until they have this one a little more under control.

I've heard GK speak about the challenges and how in his opinion, the vast majority of airline mergers are/have been failures. I was persuaded that he is very focused on making the current deal work and it still has a long way to go.

Then again, every month I'm reminded how little I know about what goes on at those levels, and that's just fine with me.

Josephus

To take a page from CL65's book... isn't it going to be a ding to Star Alliance on the East Coast to lose USAirways?

Would it then make some sense for UAL to pick up B6 to have a ton of JFK feed they don't have, mostly to connect to their Star Alliance International partners?

I am not sure of their presence at LGA, but it seems that UAL is serves their NYC customers fairly well from EWR. So why not JFK to get the International connections from their Star Alliance customers and the local Long Island traffic?

Besides, UAL will be at a disadvantage compared to the other "big three" on the east coast after AA and USAir merge. B6 would bring a lot of east coast traffic (BOS and JFK) they don't have.

Flyby1206

I dont think it would be that much of a ding to Star Alliance to lose US Airways. US had a decent amount of share in LGA (almost 17%) but has traded a significant portion of that to DL in the slot swap deal. US has a handful of departures in JFK and EWR, so I really dont think it will make a significant difference to the other Star carriers serving NYC.

Outside of NYC, US has a shrinking presence in BOS, and DCA isnt an international airport. CLT has 1 daily flight by Lufthansa, and beyond that there isnt a lot of other Star carriers.

UAL/CAL is by far the leader in NYC passenger traffic share. They are around 25% of all traffic, and the next closest is DAL with about 19%. I dont think they will be hurting at all along the east coast with EWR/IAD hubs. The DOT would never allow a UAL/B6 combo unless almost all JFK slots were divested.

gloopy

What flyby said, although I thought UAL would be a good fit to acquire JB before they merged with CAL. Now it would be irrelevant. UAL's JFK presence is a token joke and they don't care to improve it as they are now married to EWR without a prenup. Open basket, insert all eggs.

While JB would theoretically give UAL more revenue to launder through their holding company, it would cannibalize what they have out of EWR basically just routing their pax through foreign airlines. While any good no talent hack manager mercenary bonus monger textbook formula operator would salivate over that in and of itself, I think the overall fit with EWR wouldn't be worth the expense.

AA, with or without US, and SWA need JB. Badly. AA needs them sooner than SWA but they both will need more NYC presence in a tightly locked down gate and slotted marketplace with no where else to mine for capacity but JB. There is no other way. DL would like the terminal, but I suspect only if a no employee deal for that could be reached at a fair price point in the next year or two. After that other plans will be in place to significantly reduce the desire for T5 which is just a luxury and not a need for DL going forward. An outright buyout I'd say is SW most likely then AA and 5% DL. More likely than either is a 2 or 3 way fragmentation where each carrier can get what they need. And no, Schumer won't be able to squeal loud enough to stop it. Not even close.

Justdoinmyjob

Why do you say that? The last few times I heard a management type speak about the JB terminal, it was how bad it was for us. No Customs, No gates able to handle WBs, the issue of moving people between 4 and 5. Not like it's not an issue now between 3 and 4.

If any terminal deal were to happen, I could see us having the PA move AA out of 8, (which is owned by the PA, not AA,) to 2 and 4 in exchange for giving the PA ownership of 4 and we relocate to 8.

Clear Right

What many folks do not know is JetBlue still owns T6, which is being remodeled as we speak. Expect T5 and T6 to be connected with Customs and I would imagine some of JetBlue's 17 (and rising) different International Partners to connect to their domestic feed JetBlue. Just my opinion.