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Southwest/AirTran Merger Discussion of Southwest-AirTran merger

 

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Old 04-25-2012, 08:41 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Loads of rumors at JetBlue about anyone and everyone buying us. The one about SWA is the flavor of the day. Are you guys hearing anything?
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Old 04-25-2012, 12:05 PM   #2 (permalink)
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A 60/30/10 for AA-US/SW/DL makes a LOT of sense.

If it had to be one and only one, my guess would be SW followed by AA and/or US, merger or not.

What JB has can't be replicated any other way than a buyout, merger or fragmentation. SW and AA/US need significantly greater NYC presense and AA in particular needs more JFK, very desperately, to be anywhere close to relevant in the most critical market in the world against DL and UA. For SW the only logistical way to get the big NYC presence they will absolutely have to have is to buy all or large parts of another airline that has some. JB is the only way for all those scenarios to play out. DL would like the terminal and could maybe get away with a little more capacity without being forced to give it all way to someone else but doesn't need to sell its soul for either, especially now with at least a workable (though not optimum) terminal solution and the ability to radically upside capacity within existing slots by upgauging equipment if needed.

I'd say SW is very likely, with AA-US being very interested in making sure SW doesn't get it all and maybe DL interested in a few parts but only if the price was right.
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Old 04-25-2012, 12:48 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Old 04-25-2012, 05:06 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Funniest thing I have read all day...
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Old 04-26-2012, 05:47 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Gloopy,
Take a look at B6 financials, to include JetBlues fully owned subsidiary LiveTV. B6 will not be "acquired" by anybody. They may "merge", but B6 is no AirTran. SWA won't be able to use the same strong arm tactics with B6. Any transactional event will be mutually agreed upon because of B6 highly desired assets. Any suitor will have to pay top dollar or a premium for those assets, that you describe, which puts B6 in the drivers seat. Just saying, because of B6's strong position it won't be easy for anybody to "acquire", more likely "merge" on JetBlue terms vice SWA strong arm tactics.
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Old 04-26-2012, 06:34 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clear Right View Post
Gloopy,
Take a look at B6 financials, to include JetBlues fully owned subsidiary LiveTV. B6 will not be "acquired" by anybody. They may "merge", but B6 is no AirTran. SWA won't be able to use the same strong arm tactics with B6. Any transactional event will be mutually agreed upon because of B6 highly desired assets. Any suitor will have to pay top dollar or a premium for those assets, that you describe, which puts B6 in the drivers seat. Just saying, because of B6's strong position it won't be easy for anybody to "acquire", more likely "merge" on JetBlue terms vice SWA strong arm tactics.
So are those assets that drive such extreme, industry dominant value the same assets associated with a stock that's been very flat and significantly lower than its own highs for a very long time? LiveTV is cool but its not some tip of the spear game changer and its value is fully reflected already in JB's stock price. Its up to the shareholders and BOD but they all very much want to get paid too. I doubt they are thinking they will sit on the sidelines watching their investment flounder while waiting on the overestimation of a cutting edge business model to grow into its manifest destiny and rule the world.

Piling on by saying JB *will* be in the driver's seat is pretty funny though. They will have a say proportionate to the totality of all parties in a transaction. And that size may be pretty small by comparison.
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Old 04-26-2012, 06:53 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Even if JB management was in the driver's seat, that doesn't mean JB pilots would be. CR has "acquisitionitis" which is usually diagnosed by the afflicted gripping any rationalization available to convince oneself they'd have representational leverage in any acquisition or merger.

There's no place like home..........*click-click*........there's no place like home.........*click-click*...............
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Old 04-26-2012, 07:20 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Eagle,
I have no delusions about the reality of what will happen in the event of a transactional event with regard to B6 pilots. The outcome of a B6 SLI with any airline is something I will never be able to control. But even your own APA leadership has publicly stated it would be a M-B arbitrated list with whomever you merge with, US Air or B6.

I wish AMR only the best in regards to emerging from Bankruptcy. Hopefully your AMR/LCC efforts pay off in the long run. What I do know is the APA would not be able to staple the B6 group in the event of an AMR/B6 merger. We have the TWA guys to thank for that.

The bottom line and my point was that B6 is a very strong, profitable and organically growing company, that would be difficult for SWA or any other carrier for that matter to "dictate" terms upon, that was my only point.
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Old 04-26-2012, 07:20 AM   #9 (permalink)
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LiveTV (and Panasonic IFE) will soon be last year's technology..
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Old 04-26-2012, 07:42 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Gloopy,
As you said, "B6 will have a proportionate say to the assets they bring to the table". That was exactly my point. This is a SWA/B6 thread, and I simply stated that B6 will have some negotiating power (i.e. drivers seat) based on the health of the company. Terms will not be dictated a.k.a. AirTran/SWA.

As far as the Stock price, read today's Q1 report for B6. Paying CASH for this years aircraft purchases to drive return on invested Capitol, paying down debt, good hedge positions...all good for BODs and shareholders.
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