I would agree with your thoughts. IF he goes the military route to get experience, IF he gets a degree with value outside of aviation, etc.

Most people can't or won't line all of those ducks up.

When I signed up for this program it was a vastly different landscape than exists now (as you well know), it was a worthwhile and respected profession. I'm just not convinced it's going to get back there any time soon - I hope I'm wrong (and soon).